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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

TrueBlue, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides specialized workforce solutions in the United States, Canada, and Puerto Rico.It operates through three segments: PeopleReady, PeopleManagement, and PeopleScout.The PeopleReady segment offers contingent staffing solutions for blue-collar, on-demand, and skilled labor in construction, manufacturing and logistics, warehousing and distribution, waste and recycling, energy, retail, hospitality, and general labor industries.


The PeopleManagement segment provides contingent labor and outsourced industrial workforce solutions.This segment also offers on-site management and recruitment for the contingent industrial workforce of manufacturing, warehouse, and distribution facilities; and recruitment and management of contingent and dedicated commercial drivers to the transportation and distribution industries under the Staff Management, SIMOS Insourcing Solutions, and Centerline Drivers brands.The PeopleScout segment offers permanent employee recruitment process outsourcing services; and manages clients' contingent labor programs comprising vendor selection, performance management, compliance monitoring, and risk management.


The company was formerly known as Labor Ready, Inc.and changed its name to TrueBlue, Inc.in December 2007.


TrueBlue, Inc.was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Tacoma, Washington.

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1.b. Last Insights on TBI

Here is a 90-word analysis of the negative drivers behind TrueBlue's recent stock performance: TrueBlue's recent performance was negatively impacted by a quarterly loss of $0.02 per share, a significant decline from earnings of $0.08 per share a year ago. The company's revenue decreased 16% on a comparable 13-week basis, driven by a 14-week fiscal fourth quarter in 2023. Additionally, the company's SG&A expense increased, contributing to the net loss of $12 million. These factors likely weighed on investor sentiment, despite the company's efforts to attract investors with its perceived attractive pricing.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. TrueBlue's Q3 Earnings: A Cautionary yet Promising Outlook

TrueBlue's third-quarter performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue of $431 million, up 13% year-over-year, driven by skilled businesses, particularly in the energy sector. The company's commercial driver business delivered its fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Gross margin was 22.7%, down from 26.2% in the prior year, due to changes in revenue mix and less favorable workers' compensation reserve adjustments. The company reported a net loss of $2 million, but adjusted EBITDA of $11 million. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.03, beating estimates of -$0.09.

Publication Date: Nov -17

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth: Total revenue reached $431 million, a 13% YoY increase, driven by energy sector revenue more than doubling.
  • Commercial Driver Expansion: The business achieved fifth consecutive quarters of double-digit growth, up 17% YoY in the PeopleReady segment.
  • Gross Margin Decline: Gross margin fell to 22.7% from 26.2% YoY, impacted by revenue mix shifts and unfavorable workers’ comp adjustments.
  • PeopleSolutions Surge: Revenue grew 28%, with 39% of the increase attributed to the recently acquired HSP business.
  • Margin Expansion Potential: SG&A reduction of 8% YoY, combined with revenue stabilization, is expected to drive over 20% incremental margin expansion.

Segment Performance

The PeopleReady segment grew 17%, driven by energy sector demand, while PeopleManagement grew 2%, driven by commercial driver business growth. PeopleSolutions revenue grew 28%, with the recently acquired HSP business contributing 39% of growth. The company's diversified business segments are driving growth, with the energy sector being a significant contributor.

Outlook and Guidance

The company expects revenue growth of 4% to 10% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, with the HSP business expected to contribute 4 percentage points of growth. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 4.6%. TrueBlue is seeing early signs of momentum and a return to growth among clients and geographies, with clients indicating a need for staff.

Valuation and Pricing

With a P/E Ratio of -4.33 and an EV/EBITDA of -18.44, the market is pricing in significant uncertainty. However, the company's strategic focus is driving results, strengthening its market position, and unlocking new growth avenues. The pricing environment remains challenging, with typical pricing pressure, but the team has maintained pricing discipline and driven efficiencies to remain competitive.

Immigration Reform and Compliance

Regarding immigration reform, the company sees both tailwinds and headwinds. They've added new customers focused on workforce compliance, particularly in the Southwest. However, they're experiencing higher absenteeism from some staff due to ICE activity. The changes will create longer-term demand for compliant staffing solutions, a key strength of the company.

Margin Expansion and Profitability

The company has made progress on SG&A leverage, and with revenue stabilization, they expect incremental margin expansion of over 20%, exceeding their historical range of 15-20%. They feel poised for significant incremental margins and expanding profitability as demand rebounds, with an optimized fixed cost base and a focus on investing in sales and other areas to drive the top line.

3. NewsRoom

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TrueBlue Appoints Two New Independent Directors

Dec -02

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EHS Announces Intent to Nominate Directors at Upcoming TrueBlue Annual Meeting

Dec -02

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TrueBlue's Leading Technology Recognized with Three 2025 Globee® Awards, Including Business Product of the Year

Nov -17

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THE HYPERBARIC INSTITUTE RELEASES FILM: VA DENIES HBOT FOR TBI & PTSD AS 22 VETERANS DIE DAILY

Nov -06

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TrueBlue: I'm Upgrading To Hold As The Slide Finally Slows

Nov -04

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TrueBlue, Inc. (TBI) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -04

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TrueBlue Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results

Nov -03

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TrueBlue's PeopleReady Appoints New Sales Leadership to Further Advance Growth

Nov -03

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.17%)

6. Segments

PeopleReady

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Growing demand for temporary staffing solutions in industries such as construction, manufacturing, and hospitality, driven by labor shortages, increasing project-based work, and the need for workforce flexibility.

PeopleManagement

Expected Growth: 10.2%

The workforce management platform is expected to grow driven by increasing demand for staffing and recruitment solutions, adoption of HR technologies, and rising need for businesses to optimize labor costs and improve workforce efficiency.

PeopleScout

Expected Growth: 12.3%

Growing demand for recruitment process outsourcing, increasing adoption of digital technologies, and rising need for efficient talent acquisition strategies drive the growth of the RPO market, benefiting PeopleScout's workforce solutions and talent acquisition services.

7. Detailed Products

PeopleReady

Provides on-demand, contingent labor for a variety of industries, including manufacturing, logistics, and hospitality.

PeopleScout

Offers recruitment process outsourcing (RPO) and managed service provider (MSP) solutions to help clients manage their workforce.

Staff Management | SMX

Provides contingent workforce management solutions, including staffing, on-site management, and vendor management.

Centerline Drivers

Specializes in commercial driver staffing and recruitment services for the transportation industry.

8. TrueBlue, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for TrueBlue, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative staffing solutions and the ease of switching costs for clients.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is high due to the concentration of clients in the staffing industry, giving them significant negotiating power over prices and services.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is low due to the abundance of labor supply and the lack of differentiation in the staffing industry, giving TrueBlue, Inc. significant negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry, including regulatory hurdles, high startup costs, and the need for established relationships with clients.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the competitive nature of the staffing industry, with many established players competing for market share and clients.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 11.81%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 88.19%
Equity Cost 11.46%
WACC 10.57%
Leverage 13.40%

11. Quality Control: TrueBlue, Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
HireQuest

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
DHI Group

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 3.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
TrueBlue

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 0.7

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
ShiftPixy

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
ZipRecruiter

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Professional Diversity Network

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

4.9$

Current Price

4.9$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows