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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Vail Resorts, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates mountain resorts and urban ski areas in the United States.It operates through three segments: Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate.The Mountain segment operates 37 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas.


This segment is also involved in the ancillary activities, including ski school, dining, and retail/rental operations, as well as real estate brokerage activities.The Lodging segment owns and/or manages various luxury hotels and condominiums, and other lodging properties under the RockResorts brand; various condominiums located in proximity to the company's mountain resorts; destination resorts; and golf courses, as well as offers resort ground transportation services.This segment operates owned and managed hotel and condominium units.


The Real Estate segment owns, develops, and sells real estate properties.The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Broomfield, Colorado.

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1.b. Last Insights on MTN

Vail Resorts' recent performance was negatively impacted by historically low snowfall and warm weather conditions, particularly in the Rockies, which led to a 14.9% drop in total skier visits. The company's Q2 earnings and revenues missed estimates, prompting a lower FY26 outlook. Weak season pass demand and projected lodging growth offered some support, but were insufficient to offset the decline. According to MarketBeat.com, the stock has a consensus rating of "Hold" from brokerages. The company recently reported a 15% skier drop and guided EBITDA to the low end, citing weather conditions as a significant factor.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Vail Resorts Q2 2026 Earnings: Weather Woes, Strategic Wins

Net revenue slipped 5% to $1.56 billion, with lift revenue down 3% to $1.12 billion, reflecting a 13% drop in visitation. EBITDA fell 8% to $775 million, and net income was revised to $144 million–$190 million. EPS came in at $5.87 versus analysts’ $6.06 estimate, underscoring the impact of persistent cold spells across the Rockies.

Publication Date: Apr -12

📋 Highlights
  • Weather Impact on Revenue:: Q2 net revenue declined 5% YoY due to 43% lower snowfall in the Rockies, driving 13% visitation drop and 3% lift revenue decline.
  • Revised Fiscal 2026 Guidance:: Net income guidance cut to $144M–$190M and resort EBITDA to $745M–$775M, reflecting $100M annualized savings from the Resource Efficiency Plan.
  • Pass Sales Resilience:: Pass sales rose 3% despite visitation declines, supported by strategic discounts (e.g., 20% Gen Z discount) and optimized pricing without cannibalizing existing sales.
  • Capital and Liquidity Position:: $1.1B liquidity and 3.1x net leverage, with $215M–$220M core capex for snowmaking upgrades and a $2.22/share dividend maintained.
  • Technology & Guest Experience:: My Epic App enhancements and a new CMS (2026/2027 rollout) aim to boost personalization, with record guest satisfaction scores in Colorado and Utah.

Revenue and Margin Impact

Snowfall 43% below year‑on‑year forced a 5% decline in total net revenue, yet lift revenue remained relatively stable thanks to a 3% rise in pass sales. The company’s EBITDA margin contracted as fixed costs persisted while operating expenses grew with guest‑experience upgrades.

Pass Sales and Pricing Strategy

Pass sales grew 3% heading into the season, buoyed by a 7% price increase on a like‑for‑like basis after taxes. Targeted discounts—20% for Gen Z and a 1‑month advance discount—were designed to attract price‑sensitive young adults without cannibalizing existing sales, per Katz’s elasticity studies.

Weather‑Driven Guidance Adjustments

Guidance was tightened to reflect the “unusual” weather pattern, with net income now forecast at $144 m–$190 m and resort EBITDA at $745 m–$775 m. The company acknowledges a $100 million shortfall in resort EBITDA for the year, expecting a rebound next season.

Capital Expenditure and Balance Sheet

Capital spending remains steady at $215 m–$220 m, focused on snowmaking and guest‑experience tech. Liquidity stands at $1.1 billion with net leverage of 3.1x trailing 12‑month EBITDA, and the company maintains a $2.22 quarterly dividend.

Marketing and Customer Engagement

Social‑first content, influencer partnerships, and the Epic Friends ticket type have driven new customer acquisition and higher ancillary spend. The new CMS, slated for the 2026/27 season, will enhance personalization across the app ecosystem.

Future Outlook and Value Metrics

With a P/E of 19.92 and P/B of 15.21, Vail’s valuation reflects its premium brand and growth prospects. The company’s ROIC of 12.18% and ROE of 51.86% signal efficient capital deployment. Net debt/EBITDA at 2.59 underscores a solid balance sheet, positioning Vail to capitalize on post‑weather recovery.

3. NewsRoom

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Are Season-to-Date Metrics Showing Pressure for Vail Resorts?

Apr -24

Source: zacks.com

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Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) Stock Down 5.0% -- Now Undervalued? GF Score: 82/100

Apr -23

Source: gurufocus.com

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Vail Resorts Flags 15% Skier Drop, Guides EBITDA To Low End

Apr -23

Source: gurufocus.com

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Vail Resorts North America Skier Visits, Revenue Squeezed by Rough Conditions

Apr -23

Source: wsj.com

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Vail Resorts Reports Certain Ski Season Metrics for the Season-to-Date Period Ended April 19, 2026

Apr -23

Source: prnewswire.com

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Bell Canada renews Medium Term Notes (MTN) program

Apr -06

Source: prnewswire.com

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Giftify (NASDAQ:GIFT) & Vail Resorts (NYSE:MTN) Head-To-Head Comparison

Apr -06

Source: defenseworld.net

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Vail Resorts, Inc. $MTN Shares Sold by Eldred Rock Partners LLC

Apr -03

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.94%)

6. Segments

Mountain

Expected Growth: 3.0%

Vail Resorts' Mountain segment growth is driven by increasing demand for ski resorts, strategic acquisitions, and investments in technology and infrastructure. The 3.0% growth rate is also attributed to effective yield management, strong season pass sales, and a favorable snowfall season. Additionally, the company's focus on enhancing the guest experience through digital transformation and capital expenditures has contributed to the segment's growth.

Lodging

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Vail Resorts' Lodging segment growth is driven by increasing demand for luxury ski resorts, strategic acquisitions, and effective yield management. The company's focus on enhancing the guest experience through investments in amenities and technology also contributes to growth. Additionally, the growing popularity of ski vacations and the increasing appeal of Vail's destinations, such as Whistler Blackcomb and Perisher, support the 2.5% growth rate.

Real Estate

Expected Growth: 2.8%

Vail Resorts' Real Estate segment growth of 2.8% is driven by increasing demand for luxury mountain resort properties, strategic land acquisitions, and a strong brand reputation. Additionally, the company's focus on mixed-use development and resort revitalization projects contributes to the growth. Furthermore, the segment benefits from the company's ability to leverage its existing resort infrastructure and amenities to attract high-end buyers and renters.

7. Detailed Products

Ski Resort Lift Tickets

Vail Resorts offers lift tickets for access to its ski resorts, including Vail, Beaver Creek, Breckenridge, and more.

Ski Lessons

Vail Resorts offers private and group ski lessons for adults and children, taught by certified instructors.

Equipment Rentals

Vail Resorts offers ski and snowboard equipment rentals for adults and children, including skis, boots, and poles.

Lodging and Accommodations

Vail Resorts offers a range of lodging options, from luxury hotels to condominiums and vacation rentals.

Dining and Food Services

Vail Resorts offers a range of dining options, from casual cafes to fine dining restaurants, at its ski resorts.

Summer Activities

Vail Resorts offers summer activities, including mountain biking, hiking, and scenic gondola rides.

Epic Pass

Vail Resorts offers the Epic Pass, a season pass that grants access to multiple ski resorts and perks.

8. Vail Resorts, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Vail Resorts, Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes, as customers have alternative options for leisure activities and travel. However, the company's unique ski resorts and experiences provide some differentiation.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Vail Resorts, Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's loyalty programs and season pass offerings help to retain customers and reduce price sensitivity.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Vail Resorts, Inc. has a diverse supplier base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual suppliers. The company's scale and vertical integration also provide negotiating power in procurement.

Threat Of New Entrants

The ski resort industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles. This limits the threat of new entrants and provides a competitive advantage to established players like Vail Resorts, Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The ski resort industry is highly competitive, with several large players competing for market share. Vail Resorts, Inc. faces intense rivalry from other major ski resort operators, which can lead to pricing pressure and high marketing expenses.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 75.08%
Debt Cost 6.63%
Equity Weight 24.92%
Equity Cost 9.62%
WACC 7.37%
Leverage 301.32%

11. Quality Control: Vail Resorts, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Growth: 7.2

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Momentum: 7.0

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Growth: 5.9

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Yield: 8.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

125.86$

Current Price

125.86$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows