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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Wayfair Inc.engages in the e-commerce business in the United States and internationally.The company provides approximately thirty-three million products for the home sector under various brands.


It offers online selections of furniture, décor, housewares, and home improvement products through its sites, including Wayfair, Joss & Main, AllModern, Birch Lane, and Perigold brands.The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

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1.b. Last Insights on W

Breaking News: Wayfair Inc shares fell nearly 5% on Wednesday after Jefferies downgraded the stock to Hold citing weakening web traffic softer early holiday demand and fading buying intent among consumers. The downgrade was based on third-party traffic and survey data pointing to a slower start to the peak shopping season. This comes as Nasdaq and S&P 500 returned to the green after AI skepticism and payroll surprise hit markets. Jefferies turned more cautious on the stock.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Wayfair's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Wayfair reported a robust third quarter 2025, with revenue growing 9% year-over-year, excluding the impact of their exit from Germany, and adjusted EBITDA surging over 70% year-over-year. The company's adjusted EBITDA margin reached 6.7%, a record high outside of the pandemic period. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.7, significantly beating estimates of $0.46. Revenue growth was driven by a 5% year-over-year increase in orders, with active customers showing sequential growth for the first time since 2023.

Publication Date: Nov -09

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth:: 8% YoY reported growth (9% excluding Germany exit), driven by U.S. (9% YoY) and international (5% YoY) segment performance.
  • Adjusted EBITDA Surge:: 70% YoY growth, with a record 6.7% adjusted EBITDA margin, the highest since pre-pandemic levels.
  • Order Momentum:: Orders grew 5% YoY, supported by active customer sequential growth for the first time since 2023.
  • AI-Driven Innovation:: Launched Muse, an AI-powered generative engine, enhancing customer engagement and driving revenue through personalized room scenes.
  • Full-Year EBITDA Guidance:: Projects 5.5–6.5% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q4, with 2026 targeting EBITDA growth outpacing revenue growth.

Operational Highlights

The company's focus on technology and innovation is paying off, with the introduction of Muse, an AI-powered inspiration and discovery engine, and advancements in generative AI to enhance the shopping experience. As Fiona Tan mentioned, "We're using generative AI to make the shopping journey more intuitive and personal than ever before." These initiatives have contributed to share gains and revenue growth, particularly in higher-end brands.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/S Ratio of 1.14 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 155.85, the market appears to be pricing in significant growth expectations. Analysts estimate revenue growth of 5.2% for next year, which is slightly lower than the current year's growth rate. The company's guidance for Q4 2025 suggests continued momentum, with net revenue expected to grow in the mid-single digits year-over-year. As the company continues to invest in technology and innovation, its focus on long-term profitability and maximizing EBITDA is likely to drive future growth.

Key Drivers and Challenges

The company's replatforming efforts are yielding benefits in terms of developer velocity, cost reductions, and quality improvements. Additionally, initiatives like Wayfair Verified, loyalty programs, and multichannel fulfillment are driving share gains and revenue growth. However, the industry backdrop remains challenging, with a flattish trend and a slow replacement cycle. Wayfair's ability to navigate these challenges and continue to innovate will be crucial to its future success.

3. NewsRoom

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Wayfair Inc. (NYSE:W) Given Consensus Recommendation of “Moderate Buy” by Brokerages

Dec -04

Source: defenseworld.net

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Wayfair shares fall after Jefferies downgrade on soft holiday trends

Dec -03

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

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Nasdaq, S&P 500 back in the green after AI skepticism and payroll surprise hit markets

Dec -03

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

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Wayfair shares fall after Jefferies downgrade on soft holiday trends

Dec -03

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

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Here Are Wednesday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades: American Eagle Outfitters, Equinix, Garmin, Honeywell, Uber, Wendy’s and More

Dec -03

Source: 247wallst.com

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Wayfair Inc. (W) Presents at Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference 2025 Transcript

Dec -02

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Creative Planning Purchases 1,863 Shares of Wayfair Inc. $W

Dec -02

Source: defenseworld.net

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Q3 Earnings Season: 2 Big Winners

Nov -25

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (6.00%)

6. Segments

Online Home Furnishing Store

Expected Growth: 6.0%

Wayfair's online home furnishing store growth is driven by increasing online shopping adoption, rising demand for home decor and furniture, and the company's strong logistics and supply chain management. Additionally, its wide product offerings, competitive pricing, and user-friendly website experience contribute to its 6.0% growth.

7. Detailed Products

Home Goods

Wayfair offers a wide range of home goods products, including bedding, bath towels, kitchen utensils, and more.

Furniture

Wayfair offers a vast selection of furniture for every room in the house, including sofas, beds, dining tables, and more.

Home Decor

Wayfair offers a wide range of home decor products, including wall art, rugs, lighting, and more.

Kitchen and Dining

Wayfair offers a wide range of kitchen and dining products, including cookware, cutlery, dinnerware, and more.

Bed and Bath

Wayfair offers a wide range of bed and bath products, including mattresses, bedding, towels, and more.

Outdoor and Patio

Wayfair offers a wide range of outdoor and patio products, including furniture, decor, and more.

Lighting

Wayfair offers a wide range of lighting products, including table lamps, floor lamps, ceiling fixtures, and more.

Rugs

Wayfair offers a wide range of rugs, including area rugs, indoor/outdoor rugs, and more.

Wayfair Professional

Wayfair Professional is a business-to-business platform that offers a wide range of products and services for commercial customers.

8. Wayfair Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Wayfair's products are largely undifferentiated, making substitutes readily available. However, the company's strong brand recognition and customer loyalty mitigate this threat to some extent.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Wayfair's customers have some bargaining power due to the availability of substitutes, but the company's large product offerings and competitive pricing limit this power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Wayfair's suppliers have limited bargaining power due to the company's large scale and diversified supplier base.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is high due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the e-commerce industry, and the potential for new companies to disrupt the market with innovative business models.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The online furniture and home goods market is highly competitive, with many established players and new entrants vying for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 526.30%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight -426.30%
Equity Cost 20.45%
WACC -66.41%
Leverage -123.46%

11. Quality Control: Wayfair Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Ulta Beauty

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Value: 3.4

Growth: 7.7

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 6.7

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Etsy

A-Score: 5.4/10

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Growth: 7.8

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 0.0

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Volatility: 3.3

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Advance Auto Parts

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 1.6

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 4.0

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Volatility: 1.3

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Carvana

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 0.8

Growth: 7.6

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 0.0

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Volatility: 1.7

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Wayfair

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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RH

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 2.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

-1001551.39$

Current Price

95.39$

Potential

-1049999.25%

Expected Cash-Flows