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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG manufactures and sells cartonboard and folding cartons in Europe and internationally.It operates in two segments, MM Board & Paper and MM Packaging.The MM Board & Paper segment manufactures and markets various grades of cartonboard products, such as coated cartonboard produced from paper for recycling, as well as virgin fiber based cartonboard.


Its cartonboard is used as a raw material in the production of folding carton packaging; and for food packaging, as well as packaging for household and hygiene products.This segment primarily serves printing businesses in the fragmented folding carton industry.The MM Packaging segment processes cartonboard into folding cartons primarily for food industry, as well as for other consumer goods industries; and for the markets of packages for cigarettes, detergents, pharmaceuticals, personal care, and luxury products.


Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG was founded in 1950 and is based in Vienna, Austria.

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1.b. Last Insights on MMK

Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG faces market headwinds and maintenance impacts, which could negatively affect its short-term performance. The company's recent earnings call highlighted a robust 29% increase in operating profit, but also mentioned challenges. With no recent share buyback announcements or new product launches mentioned, the focus remains on its core business. According to its H1 2025 earnings call, strategic initiatives drove growth, but rising costs and market conditions may impact future performance. (Source: Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG H1 2025 Earnings Call Highlights)

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG Earnings Analysis

Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG reported mixed results for 2024, with revenues stabilizing at EUR 3.2 billion, slightly down compared to the previous year. Despite challenges in the market, the company managed to improve its EBITDA by 11% to EUR 420 million, driven by cost optimization initiatives. However, EBIT remained flat at EUR 310 million, reflecting margin pressures across key segments. The company’s ability to stabilize its financial performance amid a challenging environment highlights its operational resilience. Earnings per share (EPS) rose by 15% to EUR 3.80, supported by lower tax rates and share buybacks, though this figure still lags behind sector peers.

Publication Date: Mar -19

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Performance in Food and Premium Packaging: - These segments outperformed, while Pharma and Healthcare Packaging is still undergoing restructuring.
  • Volume Growth in Board and Paper: - Volumes rose by 17%, though EBIT remained flat, indicating margin pressures.
  • Fit-for-Future Program Delivering Savings: - The initiative, launched in 2023, is driving sustainable cost reductions and is expected to accelerate in 2025.
  • Market Stabilization in Spain: - The closure of a competitor's mill in Spain may help stabilize pricing and reduce overcapacity in the region.
  • 2025 Outlook: Overcapacity and Cost Optimization: - The company anticipates overcapacity in FBB and WLC segments and is exploring plant closures to address this challenge.

Operational Efficiency and Restructuring

The company’s Fit-for-Future program, initiated in 2023, has started to deliver measurable savings, particularly in the Board and Paper division, where volumes increased by 17% despite margin compression. As noted by CEO Peter Oswald, the program focuses on sustainable cost reductions rather than aggressive cuts, emphasizing innovation and efficiency. The closure of a competitor’s mill in Spain is expected to alleviate pricing pressures in the coming quarters, potentially stabilizing the market. Additionally, the company has made progress in restructuring its Pharma and Healthcare Packaging division, though this segment remains under pressure due to ongoing cost challenges and market competition.

Valuation and Financial Strategy

From a valuation perspective, the company’s trailing price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 35.17 suggests that investors are pricing in expectations for future growth, though this figure is elevated compared to historical averages. The price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 0.42 indicates that the stock is trading below its peers, suggesting potential undervaluation. The dividend yield of 1.78% is modest, though the company’s commitment to a 20% dividend increase to EUR 1.80 per share signals its intent to return capital to shareholders. The free cash flow yield of 18.96% underscores the company’s strong cash generation capabilities, providing a buffer against market volatility.

Risks and Challenges

In conclusion, Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG demonstrated resilience in 2024, navigating a challenging market environment through strategic initiatives and operational efficiency. While the road ahead is fraught with risks, the company’s focus on cost savings, market stabilization, and shareholder returns positions it to navigate near-term challenges and capitalize on long-term growth opportunities.

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.10%)

6. Segments

MM Board & Paper

Expected Growth: 1.2%

Slightly higher growth is expected due to the increasing demand for sustainable packaging solutions and the segment's strong position in the market.

MM Food & Premium Packaging

Expected Growth: 1.3%

Higher growth is expected due to the increasing demand for premium packaging solutions and the segment's ability to innovate and adapt to changing consumer preferences.

MM Pharma & Healthcare Packaging

Expected Growth: 1.1%

Steady growth is expected due to the stable demand for pharmaceuticals and healthcare products, and the segment's focus on providing compliant packaging solutions.

Eliminations

Expected Growth: 0.0%

As this segment represents eliminations, it is not expected to grow or contribute to the overall revenue.

7. Detailed Products

Folding Boxboard

A high-quality, multi-layered paperboard used for packaging of food, cosmetics, and pharmaceutical products

Coated Recycled Board

A sustainable, eco-friendly paperboard made from recycled fibers, used for packaging of food, cosmetics, and pharmaceutical products

Uncoated Recycled Board

A cost-effective, eco-friendly paperboard made from recycled fibers, used for packaging of food, cosmetics, and pharmaceutical products

Solid Bleached Board

A high-quality, solid paperboard used for packaging of premium food, cosmetics, and pharmaceutical products

Channeled Paper

A specialized paperboard used for packaging of fragile or heavy products, such as electronics and machinery

8. Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is moderate due to the availability of alternative packaging materials and the increasing trend of sustainable packaging.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is high due to the concentration of major customers in the industry, giving them significant negotiating power over prices and terms.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is low due to the availability of multiple suppliers and the company's significant purchasing power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the competitive nature of the industry, with multiple players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 49.04%
Debt Cost 4.45%
Equity Weight 50.96%
Equity Cost 6.73%
WACC 5.62%
Leverage 96.25%

11. Quality Control: Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Viscofan

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 4.5

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Mayr-Melnhof Karton

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Ardagh Metal Packaging

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 2.7

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Amcor

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
SIG

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Metsä Board

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 1.1

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 5.6

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

81.9$

Current Price

81.9$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows