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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. supplies metal beverage cans in Europe, the United States, and Brazil.Its products are used in various end-use categories, including beer, carbonated soft drinks, energy drinks, hard seltzers, juices, pre-mixed cocktails, teas, sparkling waters, and wine.The company serves beverage producers.


The company is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is a subsidiary of Ardagh Group S.A.

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1.b. Last Insights on AMBP

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s recent performance has been positively driven by several factors. The company's Q3 2025 earnings call and results, announced on October 23, 2025, likely provided investors with a more transparent view of its financial health. Additionally, the declaration of a quarterly interim dividend of $0.10 per ordinary share on October 23, 2025, may have boosted investor confidence. Furthermore, Ethic Inc.'s purchase of 12,347 shares, increasing its holdings by 32.9%, indicates growing institutional interest. The release of supplemental company information on November 18, 2025, may also provide investors with valuable insights.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Ardagh Metal Packaging's Q3 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. reported a robust financial performance in the third quarter, with adjusted EBITDA growth of 6% versus the prior year quarter, supported by shipments growth in Europe and North America. Revenue in Europe increased by 9% to $625 million, mainly due to volume growth, while revenue in the Americas rose by 8% to $803 million, driven by the pass-through of higher input costs to customers. The company's adjusted EBITDA margin expanded, with Europe's adjusted EBITDA increasing by 4% to $82 million and Americas' adjusted EBITDA growing by 8% to $126 million. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.08, beating estimates of $0.07.

Publication Date: Oct -28

📋 Highlights
  • Adjusted EBITDA Growth:: Q3 adjusted EBITDA rose 6% year-over-year, reaching $720–$735 million full-year guidance range.
  • Regional Revenue Growth:: Europe revenue increased 9% to $625 million; Americas revenue grew 8% to $803 million in Q3.
  • Liquidity and Leverage:: Closed Q3 with over $600 million liquidity, reducing net leverage to 5.2x from 5.6x in Q2 2024.
  • Shipments Performance:: North America shipments grew 5% year-to-date, outpacing industry trends.
  • 2025 Guidance Upgrade:: Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $720–$735 million, with $150 million+ free cash flow expected in 2025.

Segment Performance

The company's shipments grew by 2% in Europe, driven by growth in energy drinks and faster-growing categories. In North America, shipments increased by 1% for the quarter, broadly in line with the industry. Year-to-date, North America shipments are up by 5%, ahead of the overall industry. The company's liquidity position remained robust, with over $600 million in liquidity, and net leverage declined to 5.2x net debt over last 12 months adjusted EBITDA.

Guidance and Outlook

Ardagh Metal Packaging upgraded its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to the range of $720 million to $735 million, based on current FX rates. The company expects full-year shipments growth to be approximately 3%. For 2026, the company anticipates a somewhat softer outlook, with industry growth expected to be in the low single-digit percentage range. As Oliver Graham noted, "we expect 2026 to be a transition year before good growth in 2027 on the back of some contracted additional filling locations and ongoing market growth."

Valuation

Ardagh Metal Packaging's valuation metrics indicate a mix of growth and leverage. The company's P/S Ratio stands at 0.42, while its EV/EBITDA ratio is 9.65. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 6.04, indicating a relatively high level of leverage. With a ROE of -6.15% and ROIC of 2.52%, the company's return metrics are not particularly strong. However, the Dividend Yield is 10.61%, which may be attractive to income investors.

Key Drivers

The company's performance is driven by its ability to pass through input cost increases to customers, as well as its focus on sustainability and flexibility in its network. As Oliver Graham mentioned, "we continue to progress our sustainability agenda, with a 10% annual reduction in Scope 1 and 2 emissions and a 14% reduction in Scope 3 emissions." The company's efforts to improve flexibility in its network, including converting lines to accommodate different sizes, are expected to help drive growth.

3. NewsRoom

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Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) Presents at Citigroup 2025 Basic Materials Conference Transcript

Dec -03

Source: seekingalpha.com

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5 Top Stocks For AI Fatigue

Nov -28

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Release of Supplemental Company Information

Nov -18

Source: prnewswire.com

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Ethic Inc. Purchases 12,347 Shares of Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. $AMBP

Nov -01

Source: defenseworld.net

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NYSE to Commence Delisting Proceedings with Respect to Warrants of Paysafe Limited (PSFE.WS)

Oct -31

Source: businesswire.com

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4 Metal Fabrication Stocks to Buy as Industry Trends Improve

Oct -29

Source: zacks.com

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Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Oct -23

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) Earnings Transcript

Oct -23

Source: fool.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.00%)

6. Segments

Metal Beverage Cans

Expected Growth: 3.0%

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s 3.0% growth in Metal Beverage Cans is driven by increasing demand for sustainable packaging, growing popularity of craft beer and specialty beverages, and rising adoption of cans as a preferred packaging format due to their recyclability, portability, and cost-effectiveness.

7. Detailed Products

Food and Beverage Cans

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. offers a wide range of food and beverage cans for various industries, including food, beverage, and pet food.

Beverage Cans

The company provides beverage cans for the soft drink, beer, and wine industries, offering a variety of sizes and shapes.

Specialty Packaging

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. offers specialty packaging solutions for various industries, including aerosol, personal care, and pharmaceuticals.

Closure Systems

The company provides closure systems, including caps, crowns, and corks, for various industries, including beverage, food, and pharmaceuticals.

8. Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is medium due to the availability of alternative packaging materials such as plastic, glass, and paper. However, metal packaging has unique properties that make it difficult to substitute, such as its durability and sustainability.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is low due to the company's strong relationships with its customers and its ability to provide customized packaging solutions. Additionally, the company's customers are often large multinational corporations that do not have significant bargaining power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is medium due to the company's dependence on a few large suppliers of raw materials such as steel and aluminum. However, the company's long-term contracts and strategic partnerships with its suppliers mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the metal packaging industry, including the need for significant capital investment and technical expertise. Additionally, the company's established relationships with its customers and suppliers make it difficult for new entrants to gain traction.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is high due to the competitive nature of the metal packaging industry. The company faces intense competition from other metal packaging manufacturers, and the industry is characterized by frequent price wars and advertising campaigns.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 97.39%
Debt Cost 7.15%
Equity Weight 2.61%
Equity Cost 7.15%
WACC 7.15%
Leverage 3734.00%

11. Quality Control: Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Viscofan

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 4.5

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Mayr-Melnhof Karton

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Ardagh Metal Packaging

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 2.7

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Amcor

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
SIG

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Metsä Board

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 1.1

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 5.6

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

3.88$

Current Price

3.88$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows