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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Methanex Corporation produces and supplies methanol in North America, the Asia Pacific, Europe, and South America.The company also purchases methanol produced by others under methanol offtake contracts and on the spot market.In addition, it owns and leases storage and terminal facilities.


The company owns and manages a fleet of approximately 30 ocean-going vessels.It serves chemical and petrochemical producers.Methanex Corporation was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on MX

Methanex's recent performance was driven by margin expansion, with net profit margins reaching 7%, up from 4.1% last year. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.1% per year, beating the Canadian market's 5% annual growth. RBC Capital Markets and UBS maintained their outperform and buy ratings, with price targets of US$50 and US$48, respectively. A recent gas supply deal may spark a rebound. Additionally, the company's valuation is considered attractive, with a Price-To-Earnings ratio of 10.4x. (Source: RBC Capital Markets, UBS, Tudor, Pickering, Holt)

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Methanex's Q4 2025 Earnings: A Closer Look

Methanex Corporation reported an average realized price of $331 per tonne and produced sales of approximately 2,400,000 tonnes, generating adjusted EBITDA of $180,000,000 and an adjusted net loss of $11,000,000. The actual EPS came out at -$1.5989, missing estimates at $0.9. The company's financial performance was impacted by unabsorbed costs due to outages, as noted by Rich Sumner, "unabsorbed costs came through in Q4 due to outages, but expects fixed costs to come down." The company's revenue growth is estimated to be around 1.0% next year.

Publication Date: Mar -07

📋 Highlights
  • Adjusted EBITDA & Cash Position:: $180M adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2025; $425M cash on balance sheet post-year-end, with $125M Term Loan A repayment.
  • 2026 Production Guidance:: 9M tonnes equity production expected, with regional allocations of 6M+ tonnes in North America, 1.3–1.4M in Chile, and 0.5–0.6M in Egypt.
  • Market Disruption Impact:: Middle East conflict disrupted ~18–20M tonnes of global methanol supply, doubling shipping rates, while Methanex prioritizes contract customer supply security.
  • Safety & Operational Reliability:: Zero Tier 1 process safety incidents in 2 years, with 0.09–0.12 recordable injuries per 200,000 hours in 2024–2025.
  • OCI Acquisition Synergies:: Targeting $30M in cost synergies by 2026, with integration costs offsetting some initial benefits.

Operational Highlights

The company has demonstrated a strong commitment to safety, with zero Tier 1 process safety incidents over the past two years and recordable injuries per 200,000 hours worked of 0.09 and 0.12 in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Global demand for methanol increased by about 4% in China during the fourth quarter, while demand outside of China remained relatively flat.

Outlook and Guidance

Methanex expects equity production of approximately 9,000,000 tonnes of methanol in 2026, with a focus on safely and reliably operating its business and delivering on its integration plan. The company guides for production of around 6,000,000 tonnes in North America, 1,300,000 to 1,400,000 tonnes for Chile, 0.5 to 0.6 million tonnes for Egypt, and around 800,000 tonnes for Trinidad. Based on a forecasted first quarter average realized price between $330 and $340 per tonne, Methanex expects slightly higher adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter.

Valuation and Financial Position

The company's valuation metrics indicate a P/E Ratio of 49.04, P/B Ratio of 1.58, and EV/EBITDA of 7.35. Methanex ended the year with a strong cash position of $425,000,000 and has repaid $125,000,000 of the Term Loan A facility. The company's Net Debt / EBITDA ratio stands at 3.26, indicating a moderate level of leverage. With a Free Cash Flow Yield of 19.4%, the company appears to be generating significant cash flows.

Impact of Geopolitical Events

The company is closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East, where around 18-20 million tonnes of methanol supply has been impacted. Methanex is prioritizing security of supply to its contract customers and has noted that pricing has increased in all regions, with a significant impact on the globally traded methanol market. The company's shipping fleet, with mostly time charters, has seen shipping rates double, which could benefit the company's pricing.

3. NewsRoom

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Sale of Shares of Methanex Corporation

Mar -16

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One Investor Bet $3 Million on Methanex Last Quarter. The Stock has Surged 30% This Year

Mar -11

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Company News for Mar 9, 2026

Mar -09

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Assessing Methanex (TSX:MX) Valuation After Recent Share Price Volatility

Mar -08

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How Investors Are Reacting To Methanex (TSX:MX) Impairment-Driven Loss And 2026 Production Outlook

Mar -08

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Methanex Corp (MEOH) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges and Leveraging ...

Mar -06

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Methanex Releases 2025 Sustainability Report

Mar -06

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Methanex Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

Mar -06

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.70%)

6. Segments

Methanol

Expected Growth: 4.7%

Methanex Corporation's 4.7% growth in methanol production is driven by increasing demand from the energy sector, particularly in China, and the growing use of methanol as a clean energy source. Additionally, the company's strategic expansion into new markets, such as the production of bio-methanol, and its focus on operational efficiency also contribute to its growth.

7. Detailed Products

Methanol

A chemical used as a raw material in the production of various products such as adhesives, foams, and plastics.

DiMethyl Ether (DME)

A clean-burning fuel that can be used as a substitute for diesel fuel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

MTBE (Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether)

A gasoline additive used to increase the octane rating of gasoline and reduce emissions.

Acetic Acid

A chemical used in the production of vinyl acetate monomer (VAM), which is used to make a variety of products such as adhesives, coatings, and textiles.

Formaldehyde

A chemical used in the production of resins, adhesives, and other products.

8. Methanex Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Methanex Corporation faces moderate threat from substitutes, as there are limited alternatives to methanol, but some industries may opt for alternative chemicals or fuels.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Methanex Corporation has a diverse customer base, and no single customer accounts for a significant portion of its revenue, reducing the bargaining power of customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Methanex Corporation relies on natural gas as its primary feedstock, and the bargaining power of suppliers is moderate due to the availability of natural gas from various sources.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high capital costs and regulatory barriers associated with entering the methanol production industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The methanol production industry is highly competitive, with several established players, leading to a high intensity of rivalry among competitors.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 60.95%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 39.05%
Equity Cost 13.49%
WACC 7.67%
Leverage 156.09%

11. Quality Control: Methanex Corporation passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Westlake Chemical Partners

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 10.0

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Lundin Gold

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 1.9

Growth: 9.1

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.0

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Methanex

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 8.3

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 4.7

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Huntsman

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 7.5

Growth: 1.4

Quality: 2.3

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 4.3

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Tronox

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 1.4

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 1.3

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Celanese

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 9.4

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

76.69$

Current Price

76.69$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows