Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Lundin Gold Inc.operates as a mining company in Canada.The company holds interests in 27 metallic mineral concessions and three construction material concessions covering an area of approximately 64,270 hectares located in Southeast Ecuador.


It primary holds interests in the Fruta del Norte gold project comprising seven concessions covering an area of approximately 5,566 hectares located near the city of Loja in Ecuador.The company was formerly known as Fortress Minerals Corp.and changed its name to Lundin Gold Inc.


in December 2014.Lundin Gold Inc.was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on LUG

Lundin Gold's recent performance was driven by several positive factors. The company's Q4 2025 adjusted earnings increased due to higher gold prices. Record operational and financial performance at its Fruta del Norte (FDN) mine was highlighted, with gold production of 498,315 oz and record free cash flow of $926 million. Additionally, the company announced "positive" results from near-mine porphyry exploration and further high-grade results at FDNS, expanding the mineralized footprint at FDN East. A $670 million silver stream-for-equity transaction with LunR Royalties was also announced.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Lundin Gold's Strong 2025 Performance: A Closer Look

Lundin Gold reported a robust financial performance for 2025, with revenues reaching $1.78 billion, a testament to the company's operational excellence. The net income for the year was $234 million in the fourth quarter, and $926 million of free cash flow was generated, underscoring the company's ability to convert its operational success into financial gains. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.34, slightly below analyst estimates of $1.62. The gross margin stood at 72%, highlighting the company's disciplined approach to cost management. As Chester See, CFO, noted, "We generated $926 million of free cash flow for 2025, with cash operating cost and AISC of $838 and $1,015 per ounce, respectively."

Publication Date: Feb -24

📋 Highlights
  • Record Gold Production:: Produced 498,315 ounces in 2025, with 501,301 tonnes mined in Q4.
  • Cost Efficiency:: Cash operating costs averaged $838/oz, all-in sustaining costs $1,015/oz in 2025.
  • Strong Cash Flow:: Generated $1B cash flow from operations and $926M free cash flow in 2025.
  • Dividend Payout:: $664M dividends paid in 2025, with a $1.15/share dividend announced for Q4.
  • Growth Pipeline Advances:: FDNS added to mineral reserves; mill throughput expansion studied for >5,500 tonnes/day.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was equally impressive, with gold production reaching 498,315 ounces in 2025, within the guided range of 490,000 to 525,000 ounces. The average head grade was 9.5 grams per tonne, and the mill processed over 1.8 million tonnes at a record average throughput of 5,009 tonnes per day. The fourth quarter saw record mining output of 501,301 tonnes, with the mill processing 484,950 tonnes at an average of 5,271 tonnes per day.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 25.77 and an EV/EBITDA of 16.09, Lundin Gold's valuation suggests that the market has high expectations for the company's future performance. The Dividend Yield stands at 3.3%, indicating an attractive return for income-seeking investors. Analysts estimate revenue growth at 0.4% for the next year, a modest increase. The company's growth pipeline is advancing, with the inclusion of FDNS into mineral reserves and the progression of underground development. The mine to mill expansion study is also underway, evaluating the potential to increase throughput beyond 5,500 tonnes per day.

Outlook and Conclusion

Lundin Gold's strong operational and financial performance in 2025 positions the company well for future growth. With a clean balance sheet and a robust dividend, the company is well-placed to deliver on its 2026 objectives. The incorporation of Bonza Sur into long-term planning and the ongoing exploration program are expected to drive future growth. As the company continues to execute its plans, investors will be watching closely to see if Lundin Gold can meet its growth prospects and deliver returns that justify its current valuation.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

Lundin Gold Says TSX Approved Renewal of its Normal Course Issuer Bid

Feb -27

Source:

Card image cap

Lundin Gold Announces TSX Approval for Renewal of its Normal Course Issuer Bid

Feb -27

Source:

Card image cap

Lundin Gold Silver Stream Deal Reshapes Shareholder Exposure And Valuation

Feb -25

Source:

Card image cap

Lundin Gold Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

Feb -24

Source:

Card image cap

Lundin Gold Strikes $670 Million Silver Stream-for-Equity Deal with LunR Royalties

Feb -23

Source:

Card image cap

LunR Royalties to Acquire a Life-of-Mine Silver Stream on the Fruta Del Norte Mine for $670 Million

Feb -23

Source:

Card image cap

Lundin Gold Announces $670 Million Silver Stream-for-Equity Transaction with LunR Royalties

Feb -23

Source:

Card image cap

Lundin Gold's Q4 2025 Adjusted Earnings Rise on Higher Gold Prices

Feb -20

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.00%)

6. Segments

Fruta del Norte

Expected Growth: 3.0%

Fruta del Norte's 3.0 growth driven by increasing gold production, rising gold prices, and efficient operations. The mine's high-grade ore and low cash costs support strong margins. Lundin Gold's focus on exploration and expansion projects, combined with a solid balance sheet, position the company for sustained growth.

7. Detailed Products

Gold

Lundin Gold Inc. is a leading gold producer with a primary focus on gold mining and exploration. The company's flagship asset is the Fruta del Norte gold mine in Ecuador.

Copper

As a by-product of gold mining, Lundin Gold Inc. also produces copper, which is used in various industrial applications.

Silver

Silver is another by-product of gold mining, and Lundin Gold Inc. produces silver as a secondary product.

Exploration Services

Lundin Gold Inc. offers exploration services to identify and develop new gold deposits, providing expertise in geology, drilling, and mining.

Mining Operations

The company provides mining operations services, including mine planning, construction, and management.

8. Lundin Gold Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Lundin Gold Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative metals and mining companies.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Lundin Gold Inc. is low due to the company's strong market position and limited customer concentration.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Lundin Gold Inc. is medium due to the company's dependence on a few key suppliers for equipment and services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Lundin Gold Inc. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the gold mining industry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Lundin Gold Inc. is high due to the competitive nature of the gold mining industry, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 22.42%
Debt Cost 9.67%
Equity Weight 77.58%
Equity Cost 9.67%
WACC 9.67%
Leverage 28.90%

11. Quality Control: Lundin Gold Inc. passed 8 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Lundin Gold

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 1.9

Growth: 9.1

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Kinross Gold

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 7.2

Quality: 8.1

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
B2Gold

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Eldorado Gold

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Royal Gold

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 1.8

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 8.4

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Boise Cascade

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

117.56$

Current Price

117.56$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows