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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Alm.Brand A/S, together with its subsidiaries, provides non-life insurance products and services in Denmark.The company offers its non-life insurance products, such as health and accident, workers' compensation, liability, vehicle, fire and property, marine, aviation and transport, and other insurance products to private households, agricultural, and commercial customers through its sales channels and partnerships.


The company was founded in 1792 and is headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark.

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1.b. Last Insights on ALMB

Alm. Brand A/S's recent performance was driven by its ongoing share buy-back program, which is expected to reduce the number of outstanding shares and increase earnings per share. The company's strong financial position was further solidified by the assignment of an 'A2' insurance financial strength rating from Moody's Ratings, highlighting its robust creditworthiness. Additionally, the Danish FSA's approval of the Partial Internal Model is expected to reduce the solvency capital requirement by approximately DKK 0.6 billion, freeing up capital for strategic initiatives.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Strong Q4 Results Drive Record Distribution

The company's insurance service result for Q4 '25 was DKK 521 million, a significant improvement from DKK 440 million last year, driven by lower underlying claims and strong growth in Personal Lines. The full-year insurance service result was DKK 1.91 billion, up from DKK 1.44 billion in '24. Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 ended at DKK 1, based on adjusted profit after tax, exceeding analyst estimates. The proposed dividend of DKK 0.66 per share and total ordinary buybacks of DKK 500 million represent a record high normal distribution of DKK 1.4 billion, with a payout ratio of 98% for 2025.

Publication Date: Feb -09

📋 Highlights
  • Insurance Service Result Q4 '25:: DKK 521 million (up from DKK 440 million in Q4 '24), driven by lower claims and Personal Lines growth.
  • Record Distribution in 2025:: DKK 1.4 billion total (DKK 0.66/share dividend + DKK 500 million buybacks) with a 98% payout ratio.
  • Personal Lines Growth:: 9.7% YoY premium growth in 2025, contributing DKK 314 million to Q4 insurance service result.
  • Forward Technical Result Guidance:: DKK 1.65–1.85 billion in 2026, with a combined ratio (excluding run-offs) of 84.5–86.5%.
  • EPS CAGR Target:: 10% for 2026–2028, anchored by DKK 1 EPS in 2025 and DKK 2.4 billion in 2026 distributions.

Segment Performance

Personal Lines drove the growth, with a 9.7% increase in '25 and a quarterly growth rate of almost 10% in Q4. The insurance services result for Personal Lines improved significantly to DKK 314 million in Q4, driven by double-digit premium growth and a 2 percentage point improvement in the underlying undiscounted claims ratio. In contrast, Commercial Lines reported an insurance service result of DKK 207 million, below the DKK 238 million in Q4 '24, mainly due to major claims doubling to 8%, although still below the normal level of 10%.

Outlook and Guidance

The company expects a technical result, excluding run-offs, of DKK 1.65 billion to DKK 1.85 billion in '26, with an unchanged cost ratio of 17%. The combined ratio, excluding run-offs, is expected to be between 84.5% and 86.5%. Andreas Madsen mentioned that the underlying claims ratio improvement is primarily driven by the corporate business, with a rough indication of a 100-basis-point improvement in the combined group. Revenue growth is expected to be between 2% to 3% due to indexation across different lines.

Valuation

With a Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B) of 2.02 and a Dividend Yield of 3.51%, the stock appears reasonably valued. The expected improvement in underwriting profitability, as indicated by the combined ratio guidance, could support the stock's valuation. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 4.0%, which is slightly above the company's expected top-line development. The actual EPS of DKK 1 for 2025 is significantly higher than the estimated '0.15' for the quarter, indicating a positive surprise.

3. NewsRoom

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Alm. Brand A/S – Weekly report on share buybacks

Feb -09

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Alm. Brand A/S – Weekly report on share buybacks

Feb -02

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The Bull Case For Alm. Brand (CPSE:ALMB) Could Change Following Record Dividend And Q4 Earnings Beat

Jan -31

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Alm Brand AS (OCSE:ALMB) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Personal Lines Growth and ...

Jan -29

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Alm. Brand A/S - Interim report for Q4 2025

Jan -29

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Alm. Brand A/S – Weekly report on share buybacks

Jan -26

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Announcement of guidance for 2026. Strong performance in 2025 leads to distribution of DKK 2.4 billion

Jan -21

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A Look At Alm. Brand (CPSE:ALMB) Valuation After Recent Share Price Moves

Jan -20

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.88%)

6. Segments

Commercial

Expected Growth: 5.4%

Alm. Brand A/S's 5.4% commercial growth is driven by increasing demand for non-life insurance products, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on digitalization and cost savings initiatives have improved operational efficiency, contributing to top-line growth.

Private

Expected Growth: 5.4%

Alm. Brand A/S's 5.4% growth is driven by increasing demand for non-life insurance products, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on digitalization and cost optimization has improved operational efficiency, contributing to top-line growth.

Reconciling Items

Expected Growth: 8.37%

Alm. Brand A/S's 8.37% growth is driven by increasing premiums in non-life insurance, expansion in the Danish market, and improved claims handling efficiency. Additionally, the company's strategic investments in digitalization and cost-saving initiatives have contributed to the growth. Furthermore, the Danish economy's stable growth and low interest rates have created a favorable business environment, supporting the company's growth momentum.

Non-Life

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Alm. Brand A/S's Non-Life segment growth of 4.83% is driven by increasing demand for motor insurance, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on digitalization and cost savings initiatives have improved operational efficiency, contributing to the growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 4.63%

Alm. Brand A/S's 4.63% growth is driven by increasing demand for non-life insurance products, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on digitalization and cost savings initiatives have improved operational efficiency, contributing to the growth. Furthermore, the Danish insurance market's growth and the company's strong brand reputation have also supported the growth momentum.

Elimination

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Alm. Brand A/S's 4.83% growth is driven by increasing demand for non-life insurance products, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on digitalization and cost savings initiatives have improved operational efficiency, contributing to the growth.

7. Detailed Products

Fire Insurance

Provides financial protection to individuals and businesses in the event of fire damage to their properties.

Liability Insurance

Covers damages or injuries caused to third parties, protecting the policyholder's assets.

Motor Insurance

Provides financial protection against damages or losses to vehicles, as well as liability coverage.

Health Insurance

Covers medical expenses, hospitalization, and other healthcare-related costs.

Travel Insurance

Provides financial protection against unforeseen events during travel, such as trip cancellations, medical emergencies, and luggage loss.

Cyber Insurance

Covers financial losses and liabilities resulting from cyber-attacks, data breaches, and other cyber-related risks.

Pension and Savings

Offers long-term savings and pension plans to ensure financial security in retirement.

8. Alm. Brand A/S's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Alm. Brand A/S operates in the insurance industry, where substitutes are limited. However, customers may choose to self-insure or opt for alternative risk management strategies, posing a moderate threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Alm. Brand A/S has a large customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's products are often complex, making it difficult for customers to switch providers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Alm. Brand A/S has a diversified supplier base, which reduces dependence on individual suppliers. The company's scale and market position also give it bargaining power in negotiations with suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The insurance industry has high barriers to entry, including regulatory requirements and capital requirements. This limits the threat of new entrants and allows Alm. Brand A/S to maintain its market position.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The Danish insurance market is highly competitive, with several established players competing for market share. Alm. Brand A/S must continually innovate and improve its products and services to maintain its market position.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 10.25%
Debt Cost 9.47%
Equity Weight 89.75%
Equity Cost 9.47%
WACC 9.47%
Leverage 11.42%

11. Quality Control: Alm. Brand A/S passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Gjensidige Forsikring

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 2.2

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 8.0

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Baloise Holding

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 1.4

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Alm. Brand

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 2.8

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Tryg

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 3.3

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Direct Line Insurance

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Topdanmark

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 3.3

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

16.51$

Current Price

16.51$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows