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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides retail banking, wholesale banking, and asset management services.It offers current accounts; and demand, savings, overnight, time, term, and subordinated deposits.The company also provides loan products; deals in securities; and manages pension and investment funds.


In addition, it offers credit cards; corporate and investment banking services; insurance products and services; and real estate services.The company provides its products through online and mobile channels.As of December 31, 2021, it operated through a network of 6,083 branches and 29,148 ATMs. It operates in Spain, Mexico, South America, the United States, Turkey, Asia, and rest of Europe.


Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. was founded in 1857 and is headquartered in Bilbao, Spain.

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1.b. Last Insights on BBVA

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's recent performance has been impacted by increased provisions, particularly in Turkey and Mexico. The company's Q4 earnings call highlighted a 19% jump in provisions, which lifted costs and pressured shares despite in-line quarterly profit. Additionally, the company's capital ratio missed expectations. Despite a record net attributable profit of €10.5 billion in 2025, driven by 16.2% loan growth, the company's share price has eased, with a 6.04% 1-month share price return decline. Analysts from Deutsche Bank raised their price target to EUR 21.24, citing improving fundamentals. Citi and BofA Securities have reiterated Buy ratings.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. BBVA's Strong 2025 Results: A Testament to its Strategic Execution

BBVA reported a net attributable profit of EUR 10.5 billion in 2025, a 4.5% increase from the previous year. The bank's revenue growth was driven by a 16.2% increase in its loan portfolio at constant euros, and a 11.7% increase in current euros. The bank's return on tangible equity (ROTE) remained strong at 19.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) for the year was EUR 0.428, closely aligning with analyst estimates of EUR 0.4284. The bank's efficiency ratio improved to 38.8%, one of the best among European peers.

Publication Date: Feb -06

📋 Highlights
  • Record Net Profit:: Achieved EUR 10.5 billion net attributable profit, 4.5% higher year-over-year (YoY) in current euros.
  • Loan Portfolio Growth:: Loan growth of 16.2% at constant euros and 11.7% in current euros, driven by market share gains globally.
  • Customer Acquisition:: Added 11.5 million gross new customers in 2025, with revenue per customer in Spain rising 3.7x over five years.
  • Shareholder Distributions:: Proposed EUR 5.2 billion regular payout (50% payout ratio) and EUR 0.92 per share cash dividend, up 31% YoY.
  • Operational Efficiency:: Efficiency ratio improved to 38.8% (best-in-class in Europe), with cost-income ratio at 33.1% in Spain.

Revenue Growth and Margin Analysis

The bank's gross income grew by 16%, outpacing the growth in costs. The net interest income remained highly resilient, supported by commercial momentum. The bank's customer spread dynamics are expected to remain stable in the first half of 2026, with a slight increase by the end of the year. As Onur Genç noted, "We expect quarter-on-quarter pretty stable customer spreads in the first half of the year and perhaps slightly picking up at the end of the year depending on the Euribor rate performance."

Valuation and Dividend Yield

BBVA's current Price-to-Tangible Book Value (P/TBV) ratio is around 2.0, indicating a reasonable valuation. The bank's dividend yield stands at 3.35%, attractive for income investors. With a payout ratio of 50%, the bank is committed to returning capital to shareholders. The bank's capital generation is expected to be strong, with a target of generating 30-40 basis points of pure organic capital generation per year.

Regional Performance and Outlook

The bank's performance in Spain was outstanding, with a net profit of EUR 4.1 billion, driven by strong business dynamics and proactive price management. In Mexico, the bank delivered a strong performance despite a challenging macro environment, with a total market share of 25.6%. The bank's outlook for 2026 is positive, with expected revenue growth of 5.1% according to analyst estimates. The bank is well-positioned to continue its growth trajectory, driven by its global footprint and focus on corporates.

3. NewsRoom

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BBVA Plan Shifts Growth Toward Mexico While Streamlining Portfolio And Valuation

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European Equities Traded in US as ADRs Slump in Thursday Trading

Mar -12

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EWP Is Beating the Eurozone by a Mile With a 50% One-Year Return

Mar -12

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Raiffeisen close to acquiring Garanti BBVA Romania

Mar -11

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Update: Sector Update: Financial Stocks Decline Premarket Tuesday

Mar -10

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Sector Update: Financial Stocks Decline Premarket Tuesday

Mar -10

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Industry Leaders Join Zapata’s Growth Advisory Board, Validating Its Hardware-Agnostic, Application-Driven Approach

Mar -10

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Financial Services Roundup: Market Talk

Mar -09

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.40%)

6. Segments

Mexico

Expected Growth: 1.6%

The rationale behind a slightly higher growth rate than the global hypothesis is Mexico's economic resilience and the bank's strategic investments in the region, which could lead to increased market share and revenue.

Spain (Incl. Non Core Real Estate)

Expected Growth: 1.4%

The growth is aligned with the global hypothesis due to the stable economic environment in Spain and the bank's efforts to manage its non-core assets efficiently, potentially leading to a steady revenue stream.

South America

Expected Growth: 1.7%

The higher growth rate is justified by the potential for economic recovery and growth in certain South American countries, coupled with the bank's diversified portfolio and strategic investments in the region.

Turkey

Expected Growth: 1.5%

The rationale for a slightly higher growth rate than the global average is based on the bank's established presence in Turkey and the potential for economic stabilization and growth, despite the current volatility.

Rest of Business

Expected Growth: 1.4%

The growth rate is aligned with the global hypothesis, reflecting the diversified nature of this segment and its contribution to the bank's overall stability.

Corporate Center

Expected Growth: 1.0%

The rationale for a lower growth rate is the same as for 'Corporate Center and Adjustments,' reflecting the segment's nature and its limited direct exposure to external economic growth drivers.

7. Detailed Products

Retail Banking

Provides personal banking services to individuals and small businesses, including current and savings accounts, credit cards, personal loans, mortgages, and investment products.

Wholesale Banking

Offers corporate banking services to large corporations, including cash management, trade finance, and risk management solutions.

Asset Management

Provides investment management services to individuals, companies, and institutions, including mutual funds, pension plans, and wealth management.

Markets and Treasury

Offers market-making, sales, and trading services in fixed income, currencies, commodities, and equities, as well as treasury services.

BBVA Compass

Provides retail and commercial banking services in the United States, including consumer and business banking, credit cards, and wealth management.

Digital Banking

Offers online and mobile banking services, including digital wallets, payment systems, and fintech partnerships.

8. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. is medium due to the presence of alternative financial institutions and digital payment systems.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low due to the lack of negotiating power of individual customers and the high switching costs.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers and the bank's ability to negotiate prices.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry, including regulatory requirements and capital requirements.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the presence of multiple competitors in the banking industry and the need to differentiate through innovative products and services.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 76.23%
Debt Cost 11.40%
Equity Weight 23.77%
Equity Cost 11.40%
WACC 11.40%
Leverage 320.72%

11. Quality Control: Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
HSBC

A-Score: 7.6/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 7.3

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
BBVA

A-Score: 7.4/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 9.2

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
ING

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
NatWest

A-Score: 6.8/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Barclays

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 7.2

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
UBS

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 3.2

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

18.01$

Current Price

18.01$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows