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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Trainline Plc operates an independent rail and coach travel platform that sells rail and coach tickets worldwide.The company operates through three segments: UK Consumer, UK Trainline Partner Solutions, and International.The UK Consumer segment provides travel apps and websites for individual travelers for journeys within the United Kingdom.


The UK Trainline Partner Solutions segment offers travel portal platforms for corporates and travel management companies, and white label e-commerce platforms for train operating companies within the United Kingdom.The International segment provides travel apps and websites for individual travelers for journeys outside the United Kingdom.The company offers routes, fares, and journey times from 270 rail and coach carriers across 45 countries.


Trainline Plc was founded in 1997 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

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1.b. Last Insights on TRN

Negative drivers behind Trainline Plc's recent performance include concerns over a national ticketing app potentially disrupting its dominant market position, as evident in the company's record sales being met with a decline in shares. The introduction of a national ticketing app could erode Trainline's current market share, leading to decreased revenue and profitability. Additionally, the company's recent court case involving a teacher who was fined for fare dodging after not printing her online ticket has raised concerns over the company's customer service and ticketing policies.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Trainline's HY 2026 Results: Robust Growth and Enhanced Profitability Guidance

Trainline delivered a strong financial performance in the first half of 2026, with net ticket sales growing 8% to GBP 2.1 billion in the U.K. and 2% year-on-year to GBP 594 million internationally. Trainline Solutions saw net ticket sales grow 18% to GBP 529 million. The company's operating leverage amplified its top-line growth, driving a 14% increase in EBITDA. As a result, Trainline increased its profitability guidance for the year. The actual EPS came out at '0.02873' relative to estimates at '0.05467'.

Publication Date: Nov -19

📋 Highlights
  • U.K. Consumer Growth:: Net ticket sales rose 8% to GBP 2.1 billion, driving 14% EBITDA growth and revised full-year guidance to 10-13% growth from 6-9%.
  • Trainline Solutions Expansion:: Fastest-growing unit with GBP 529 million net sales (+18%), GBP 1 billion annualized revenue, and 50% business travel contribution.
  • Share Buyback Commitment:: GBP 350 million repurchase over three years (~33% of market cap), funded by GBP 79 million underlying free cash flow in H1.
  • International Market Liberalization:: EUR 1 billion high-speed corridor in France saw 27% fare decline, with Trainline aggregating all carriers for competitive pricing.
  • AI & Productivity Gains:: Agentic AI reduces customer service costs by handling 10% of queries, while internal tools like copilot boost engineering efficiency without headcount increases.

Financial Highlights

The company's cash generation underpins its enhanced share buyback program, with underlying free cash flow of GBP 79 million in the first half. Trainline expects adjusted EBITDA to grow between 10% and 13% for the full year, above its originally stated guidance of 6% to 9%. The enhanced share buyback program implies the company will repurchase GBP 350 million of shares over three years, around 1/3 of its market cap.

Valuation Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 19.69 and an EV/EBITDA of 10.43, the market seems to be pricing in a moderate growth trajectory for Trainline. The company's ROE of 20.13% and ROIC of 13.96% indicate a strong ability to generate returns on equity and invested capital. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 1.7%, which may be considered relatively modest.

Strategic Progress

Trainline is making progress against its strategic priorities, including deepening its competitive moat in the U.K. by introducing new products like SplitSave and price prediction, as mentioned by Jody Ford, "We're excited about productizing AI, which is giving us the ability to solve new customer problems and create a moat." The company is also positioning itself as the aggregator of choice in international markets as they liberalize.

Growth Opportunities

Trainline is leveraging its highly rated mobile app to showcase all the fares from all the high-speed carriers and features that help unlock value for customers. The company is also launching a digital pay-as-you-go trial in the U.K., which allows customers to pay for short-distance journeys using its app. This trial is running smoothly, and the company is learning fast.

Regulatory Environment

Regarding the GBR consultation, Trainline welcomes the government's desire to consolidate multiple apps into one and improve the cost base. The company is encouraged by the direction of the consultation but still has questions to answer and work to be done. Trainline does not have concerns about commission rates being reduced or ticketing having less need to cover its own costs.

3. NewsRoom

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FTSE 100 closes higher as US markets rally after tech falls

Nov -05

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Trainline shares accelerate on rosier earnings outlook

Sep -11

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Rail ticket price claims in Trainline ads were ‘misleading’ – watchdog

Sep -01

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Is There Now An Opportunity In Trainline plc (LON:TRN)?

Aug -20

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Trainline plc's (LON:TRN) Fundamentals Look Pretty Strong: Could The Market Be Wrong About The Stock?

Jul -20

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Trainline sues Transport Secretary over ‘secret’ deal for state-owned rail operator

Jun -20

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Is Trainline plc (LON:TRN) Trading At A 46% Discount?

Jun -20

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Trainline's (LON:TRN) Earnings May Just Be The Starting Point

May -14

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.14%)

6. Segments

UK Consumer

Expected Growth: 7.5%

UK Consumer segment of Trainline Plc is driven by increasing online ticket penetration, rising smartphone adoption, and growing demand for convenient travel booking experiences. Additionally, Trainline's user-friendly platform, competitive pricing, and loyalty programs contribute to its 7.5% growth.

Trainline Solutions

Expected Growth: 9.0%

Trainline Solutions' 9.0% growth is driven by increasing adoption of digital ticketing, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships with rail operators. Additionally, investments in AI-powered customer service and personalized travel recommendations enhance user experience, leading to higher customer retention and revenue growth.

International Consumer

Expected Growth: 8.5%

International Consumer segment growth of 8.5% driven by increasing adoption of online booking platforms, rising demand for convenient travel options, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, Trainline Plc's strategic partnerships and investments in digital technology have enhanced customer experience, contributing to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Rail Tickets

Trainline Plc offers rail tickets for passengers to travel across the UK and Europe, providing access to a wide range of routes and operators.

Coach Tickets

Trainline Plc also offers coach tickets, allowing passengers to travel by road to various destinations across the UK and Europe.

Bus Tickets

In addition to rail and coach tickets, Trainline Plc provides bus tickets for shorter journeys, connecting passengers to local destinations.

Season Tickets

Trainline Plc offers season tickets for frequent travelers, providing cost-effective and convenient travel solutions.

SplitSave

SplitSave is a fare-splitting feature that helps passengers save money by splitting their ticket into multiple segments, reducing the overall cost.

Price Prediction

Trainline Plc's price prediction tool helps passengers identify the best time to book their tickets, ensuring they get the best possible price.

Live Tracker

The live tracker feature allows passengers to track their journey in real-time, providing up-to-date information on delays and cancellations.

8. Trainline Plc's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Trainline Plc operates in a market with few substitutes, as customers have limited alternatives for booking and managing rail tickets. However, the rise of digital platforms and mobile apps has increased the threat of substitutes, as customers can easily switch to alternative booking platforms.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Trainline Plc's customers have low bargaining power due to the lack of alternative booking platforms and the company's dominant market position. However, customers can still exert some pressure through online reviews and social media.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Trainline Plc's suppliers, primarily rail operators, have low bargaining power due to the company's significant market share and the lack of alternative booking platforms.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the significant barriers to entry, including the need for licenses and agreements with rail operators, as well as the high development costs of a booking platform.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry in the rail ticketing market is medium, with Trainline Plc facing competition from other booking platforms and rail operators' own ticketing systems. However, the company's dominant market position and strong brand recognition mitigate the intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 31.72%
Debt Cost 7.78%
Equity Weight 68.28%
Equity Cost 11.86%
WACC 10.57%
Leverage 46.45%

11. Quality Control: Trainline Plc passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Voyageurs du Monde

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 8.6

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 2.5

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 6.0

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eDreams ODIGEO

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 4.3

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On the Beach

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 4.4

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 7.6

Yield: 1.2

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 1.7

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Lastminute

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 3.1

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 2.7

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Trainline

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 4.6

Growth: 7.9

Quality: 8.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Hostelworld

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 0.6

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 2.3

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

2.09$

Current Price

2.09$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows