Patria Investments Limited (PAX) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm focused on investing in Latin America.The company offers asset management services to investors focusing on private equity funds, infrastructure development funds, co-investments funds, constructivist equity funds, and real estate and credit funds.Patria Investments Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Grand Cayman, the Cayman Islands.

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1.b. Last Insights on PAX

Negative drivers behind Patria Investments Limited's recent performance include the lack of recent earnings releases, with the last update being the Q4 2024 earnings call on February 12, 2025. Additionally, the company's acquisition of Richardson Psychiatric Associates on April 17, 2025, while a positive development, may not have had a significant impact on the stock's performance in the short term. Furthermore, the announcement of the first quarter 2025 investor call on April 15, 2025, may not have provided enough information to drive significant market movement.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	11.27
Change Percentage	-0.88%
Open	11.25
Previous Close	11.37
Market Cap ( Millions)	1797
Volume	599023
Year High	17.8
Year Low	9.43
M A 50	14.52
M A 200	14.39

FCF Yield	13.12%
Dividend Yield	5.32%
ROE	14.71%
Debt / Equity	28.29%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	77.96%
Price To Book	2.88
Price Earnings Ratio	20.82
Price To FCF	7.62
Price To sales	4.69
EV / EBITDA	12.47

2. Patria's Strong 2025 Earnings: A Reflection of Its Resilience and Growth Prospects

Patria's financial performance in 2025 was impressive, with fee-related earnings (FRE) reaching $202.5 million, up 19% year-over-year, and distributable earnings per share of $1.27. The company's total fee revenue was $344 million, a 14% increase versus the previous year. The management fee rate averaged 92 basis points over the trailing 4 quarters. Earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 2025 was $0.50, beating estimates of $0.47. The company's strong financial position is reflected in its net debt to FRE ratio of 0.5, well below its long-term guidance of 1x.

Publication Date: Mar -08

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Record Organic Fundraising::
                                                Surpassed $7.7 billion for full year 2025, exceeding the $6 billion target, with $1.7 billion in Q4 alone.
Fee-Related Earnings Growth::
                                                FRE rose 19% YoY to $203 million, with 2026 guidance of $225–$245 million ($1.42–$1.54 per share) and 2027 guidance of $260–$290 million.
Strategic Acquisitions::
                                                Acquired 51% of Solis ($3.5B AUM) and RBR’s REITs ($1.3B AUM), with pro forma FEAUM reaching $47.4 billion.
Strong Balance Sheet::
                                                Net debt-to-FRE ratio of 0.5, below the 1x target, and $3 million share buyback program approved for 2026.
Latin America Momentum::
                                                Benefiting from political stability and commodities (e.g., rare earths, oil), with 2026 fundraising guidance of $7 billion and 3-year target of $21 billion.

                                

Financial Highlights and Guidance

The company is confident in meeting its 2026 fee-related earnings targets of $225-$245 million or $1.42-$1.54 per share. Performance-related earnings are expected to reach $120-$140 million from Q4 2024 to 2027. The company's guidance for fundraising in 2026 remains at $7 billion, and it expects to resume acquisitions, with a guidance of $18 billion in fee-paying AUM acquisitions by 2027.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 22.11 and a P/B Ratio of 3.06, the market is pricing in Patria's strong growth prospects. The company's ROE of 14.71% and ROIC of 12.47% indicate its ability to generate returns on equity and invested capital. Analysts estimate revenue growth of 14.1% for next year, driven by the company's diversified business and resilience in the Latin American market.

Business Drivers and Outlook

Patria's diversified business, with a strong presence in the Latin American region, positions it to capitalize on increased investor interest and investment opportunities. The company's real estate business is a key area of growth, with Patria being the largest real estate investment trust manager in Brazil. The expected reduction in interest rates in Brazil should lead to a better fundraising environment for their Brazilian real estate investment trusts.

Management Changes and Strategic Initiatives

The company announced changes in its management team, with Ana Russo stepping down as CFO in April 2026 and being replaced by Raphael Denadai. The creation of the role of Global Chief Operating Officer, filled by Nikitas Psyllakis, is expected to drive the company's strategic initiatives. Patria's strong financial position and diversified business enable it to maintain strategic optionality for shareholders.

Shareholder Returns and Dividend Policy

Patria declared a dividend of $0.15 per share for Q4 2025 and updated its fixed dividend policy to $0.65 per share for 2026, an 8% increase. The company's dividend yield of 5.01% is attractive to income investors. The share buyback program, with an additional 3 million shares authorized, demonstrates the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders.

3. NewsRoom

PAX vs. CG: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?

Mar -13

Source: zacks.com

Patria Investments (PAX) Forms 'Hammer Chart Pattern': Time for Bottom Fishing?

Mar -10

Source: zacks.com

Down 10.3% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why You Should You Buy the Dip in Patria Investments (PAX)

Mar -06

Source: zacks.com

5 Low P/B Ratio Stocks That You May Consider Buying in March

Mar -06

Source: zacks.com

INVESTOR ALERT: Pomerantz Law Firm Investigates Claims On Behalf of Investors of Patria Investments Limited - PAX

Mar -03

Source: globenewswire.com

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Feb -27

Source: zacks.com

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Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (9.29%)

6. Segments

Management Fees

Expected Growth: 9.27%

Patria Investments Limited's 9.27% growth in Management Fees is driven by increasing assets under management, expansion into new markets, and a growing demand for alternative investment products. Additionally, the company's strategic partnerships, improved operational efficiency, and competitive pricing strategy have contributed to the growth.

Performance Fees

Expected Growth: 9.27%

Patria Investments Limited's 9.27% growth in Performance Fees is driven by increasing assets under management (AUM), successful investment strategies, and a growing client base. Additionally, the company's expansion into new markets, improved operational efficiency, and competitive fee structures have contributed to this growth.

Incentive Fees

Expected Growth: 10.27%

Strong investment performance, increasing assets under management, and successful fundraising efforts by Patria Investments Limited have driven the 10.27% growth in incentive fees. Additionally, the company's expanding presence in Latin America and strategic partnerships have contributed to the growth, as well as the increasing demand for alternative investment products.

Advisory and Other Ancillary Fees

Expected Growth: 9.9%

Patria Investments Limited's 9.9% growth in Advisory and Other Ancillary Fees is driven by increasing demand for alternative investment solutions, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's expertise in private equity and real assets, as well as its ability to provide customized solutions, have contributed to its growth.

7. Detailed Products

Private Equity

Patria Investments Limited provides private equity investment solutions to its clients, focusing on long-term growth and value creation.

Infrastructure Investments

The company offers infrastructure investment opportunities, focusing on energy, transportation, and social infrastructure projects.

Real Estate Investments

Patria Investments Limited provides real estate investment solutions, including direct property investments and real estate funds.

Credit Investments

The company offers credit investment solutions, including corporate debt, structured credit, and distressed debt.

Wealth Management

Patria Investments Limited provides wealth management services, including portfolio management and investment advisory services.

8. Patria Investments Limited's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Patria Investments Limited is moderate due to the presence of alternative investment options available to customers.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is high due to the availability of multiple investment options and the ability of customers to negotiate prices.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is low due to the company's strong relationships with its suppliers and the availability of alternative suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is moderate due to the presence of barriers to entry, such as regulatory requirements and the need for significant capital investment.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the presence of several established players in the market, leading to a competitive environment.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	2.84%
Debt Cost	7.19%
Equity Weight	97.16%
Equity Cost	7.19%
WACC	7.19%
Leverage	2.92%

11. Quality Control: Patria Investments Limited passed 7 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Patria Investments

A-Score: 7.4/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 8.5

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Gladstone Capital

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 8.9

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

CGI

A-Score: 7.1/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 8.9

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Portman Ridge Finance

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Fiera Capital

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Westaim

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

-0.77%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

7.19%

Patria Investments Limited - KYG694511059

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on PAX

1.c. Company Highlights

Better Quality

Higher Yield

Expensive

Earnings Miss

Revenues Miss

Higher Growth

Weak Momentum

Earnings Beats

Revenues Beats

2. Patria's Strong 2025 Earnings: A Reflection of Its Resilience and Growth Prospects

Financial Highlights and Guidance

Valuation and Growth Prospects

Business Drivers and Outlook

Management Changes and Strategic Initiatives

Shareholder Returns and Dividend Policy

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (9.29%)

6. Segments

Management Fees

Expected Growth: 9.27%

Performance Fees

Expected Growth: 9.27%

Incentive Fees

Expected Growth: 10.27%

Advisory and Other Ancillary Fees

Expected Growth: 9.9%

7. Detailed Products

Private Equity

Infrastructure Investments

Real Estate Investments

Credit Investments

Wealth Management

8. Patria Investments Limited's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Patria Investments Limited passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

11.27$

Current Price

11.27$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA