Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Millicom International Cellular S.A. provides cable and mobile services in Latin America and Africa.The company offers mobile services, including mobile data and voice; short message service; and mobile financial services, such as payments, money transfers, international remittances, savings, real-time loans, and micro-insurance.It also provides cable and other fixed services, including broadband, content, fixed voice, and pay-TV to residential consumers; and fixed, managed services, cloud and security solutions, and value-added services to small, medium, and large businesses, as well as governmental entities.


As of December 31, 2021, the company served 44.9 million mobile customers; and 12.7 million cable homes.It markets its products and services under Tigo and Tigo Business brands.The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Luxembourg.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on TIGO

Millicom International Cellular's recent performance was driven by strong Q4 earnings, beating estimates with $1.5 per share, up from $0.2 per share a year ago. The company's revenue growth was supported by ARPU growth, digital momentum, and recent acquisitions. Executives highlighted strong operational execution, accelerating top-line trends, and expanded footprint. A series of acquisitions, including the controlling stake in Colombia Telecomunicaciones S.A. E.S.P. (Coltel) and EPM's stake in UNE, has reshaped its integration agenda. This momentum positions the company for continued growth. (Source: Zacks Consensus Estimate)

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Millicom's Strong 2025 Performance Driven by Operational and Financial Growth

Millicom's financial performance in 2025 was marked by significant revenue growth, with service revenues for Q4 reaching $1.55 billion, up 15.9% year-on-year, and an organic growth of 5.2%. The company's adjusted EBITDA reached $778 million for the year, with an EBITDA margin of 47%. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.5, exceeding analyst estimates of $1.05. The company's equity free cash flow (eFCF) was $916 million, or $864 million excluding tower sales proceeds, exceeding guidance. With a robust year-on-year improvement in adjusted EBITDA driven by operational performance, margin enhancement, and positive FX impacts, Millicom demonstrated a strong financial performance.

Publication Date: Mar -01

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Financial Performance:: Adjusted EBITDA of $778M (47% margin) and equity free cash flow of $916M (excluding tower sales $864M), exceeding guidance.
  • Market Expansion & Integration:: Operates in 12 countries post-Chile acquisition, with Q4 service revenue up 15.9% YoY ($1.55B) and organic growth of 5.2%.
  • Strategic Acquisitions:: Secured 2/3 stake in Coltel ($220M) and Telefonica’s Chile operations ($50M upfront + $150M earn-out), focusing on in-market consolidation.
  • Projected Financial Targets:: 2026 equity free cash flow of ≥$900M, leverage near 2.5x by year-end, and 2/3 distribution to shareholders via dividends.
  • Operational Growth Drivers:: Colombia’s mobile/home base grew 10% YoY; Guatemala’s revenue driven by network investment and prepaid-to-postpaid migration.

Operational Highlights

The company highlighted success stories in Guatemala, Colombia, and Panama, with Guatemala delivering solid growth, Colombia showing exceptional commercial execution, and Panama returning to solid growth. Millicom's strategic projects, including acquiring a 2/3 stake in Coltel from Telefonica and a transaction with NJJ to acquire Telefonica's operations in Chile, are expected to drive future growth. The Chile transaction is a balance sheet-protected move, with an upfront payment of $50 million and potential earn-out considerations of up to $150 million.

Outlook and Leverage

Millicom's 2026 equity free cash flow is projected to be at least $900 million. The company's leverage is expected to increase due to acquisitions in Colombia, including the $570 million purchase of a 50% stake in Tigo Colombia and $220 million from acquiring Telefonica shares in Coltel. Leverage is anticipated to be around 2.5 by the end of 2026 and within the guided range of 2.0 to 2.5 in 2027. With a current leverage of 2.31, comfortably below the target of below 2.5, Millicom is well-positioned to manage its debt.

Valuation and Dividend Yield

Millicom's current valuation metrics indicate a relatively attractive position, with a P/E Ratio of 9.31, P/B Ratio of 3.36, and Dividend Yield of 5.83%. The company's EV/EBITDA ratio is 5.91, and its Free Cash Flow Yield is 9.62%. With a ROIC of 8.78% and ROE of 37.85%, Millicom demonstrates a strong ability to generate returns. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 2.2%, indicating a stable outlook for the company.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

Barclays PLC Increases Stake in Millicom International Cellular SA $TIGO

Mar -08

Source: defenseworld.net

Card image cap

Millicom International Cellular Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

Mar -02

Source: defenseworld.net

Card image cap

Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -26

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

Millicom International Cellular SA (TIGO) Tops Q4 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Feb -26

Source: zacks.com

Card image cap

What to Expect Ahead of Millicom International's Q4 Earnings Release?

Feb -25

Source: zacks.com

Card image cap

Millicom (Tigo) notice of fourth quarter 2025 results and video conference

Feb -13

Source: globenewswire.com

Card image cap

Telefonica sells Chile unit to NJJ, Millicom for $1.2 billion

Feb -10

Source: reuters.com

Card image cap

Millicom International Cellular: Infrastructure Re-Rating Driven By Colombia Consolidation Edge

Feb -07

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.13%)

6. Segments

Mobile

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Mobile segment growth of 2.5% driven by increasing smartphone penetration, data usage, and 4G network expansion in Latin America and Africa. Additionally, Millicom's focus on digital services, such as mobile financial services and streaming, contributes to growth. Cost savings initiatives and operational efficiencies also support the segment's growth.

Fixed and Other Services

Expected Growth: 1.8%

The 1.8% growth in Fixed and Other Services from Millicom International Cellular S.A. is driven by increasing demand for high-speed internet and data services, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships to enhance service offerings. Additionally, investments in network infrastructure and technology upgrades have improved service quality, attracting and retaining customers.

Telephone and Equipment

Expected Growth: 1.2%

Millicom's Telephone and Equipment segment growth of 1.2% is driven by increasing demand for high-speed data services, expansion of 4G networks in Latin America, and growing adoption of smartphones in emerging markets. Additionally, the company's focus on cost savings initiatives and operational efficiencies also contribute to the segment's growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 1.5%

Millicom's 1.5% growth in 'Other' segment is driven by increasing demand for digital services, expansion of cable TV and broadband offerings, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, growing adoption of mobile financial services, such as mobile money and microfinance, contributes to the segment's growth.

Mobile Financial Services

Expected Growth: 3.0%

The 3.0% growth in Mobile Financial Services from Millicom International Cellular S.A. is driven by increasing mobile penetration, rising demand for digital payment solutions, and strategic partnerships with financial institutions. Additionally, the expansion of mobile money services into new markets and the growth of e-commerce transactions also contribute to this growth.

7. Detailed Products

Mobile Voice

Mobile voice services allowing customers to make and receive calls, send SMS and MMS, and access mobile internet

Mobile Data

Mobile data services providing high-speed internet access on mobile devices

Fixed Line

Fixed line services providing high-speed internet, voice, and TV services to homes and businesses

Cable TV

Cable TV services providing access to a range of TV channels and on-demand content

Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH)

High-speed fiber-optic internet services providing fast and reliable connectivity

Digital Services

Digital services including online storage, cybersecurity, and digital entertainment

8. Millicom International Cellular S.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Millicom International Cellular S.A. operates in a highly competitive industry, but the threat of substitutes is mitigated by the high switching costs for customers and the lack of viable alternatives to mobile telecommunications services.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Millicom International Cellular S.A. faces significant bargaining power from its customers, particularly large corporate clients who can negotiate better rates and terms.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Millicom International Cellular S.A. has a diverse supplier base, and the company's scale and bargaining power enable it to negotiate favorable terms with its suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the telecommunications industry, including the need for significant capital investments and regulatory approvals.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The telecommunications industry is highly competitive, with multiple players competing for market share, which leads to intense rivalry among firms.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 66.12%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 33.88%
Equity Cost 9.58%
WACC 5.85%
Leverage 195.13%

11. Quality Control: Millicom International Cellular S.A. passed 0 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Millicom

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Telia Company

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Itissalat Al-Maghrib

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 2.3

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Airtel Africa

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 3.5

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Elisa

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
1&1

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 5.5

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

72.64$

Current Price

72.64$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows