Telia Company AB (publ) (TELIA.ST) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Telia Company AB (publ) provides communication services in Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia.The company offers mobile, broadband, television, and fixed-line services to businesses, individuals, families, and communities.It provides networking, cloud and security, mobility, enterprise mobile network, contact center, managed mobility services, collaboration solutions, enterprise telephony, Internet of Things (IoT), carrier ethernet, dedicated internet access, wavelengths, IP Transit, dark fiber, colocation, and IoT connectivity solutions, as well as broadcasting and content production services, and customer financing services.

The company markets its products and services under the Telia, halebop, Fello, TV4, C More, MTV, MyCall, OneCall, Phonero, Call me, Mit tele, Diil, Lmt Okarte, Telia Latvija, Cloudy, Tet, and Ezys brands for logistics, public transport, manufacturing, retail, utilities, building, and public sector industries.It has 18.1 million mobile subscriptions, 1.0 million fixed telephony subscriptions, 2.9 fixed million broadband subscriptions, and 3.4 million TV subscriptions.The company was formerly known as TeliaSonera AB (publ) and changed its name to Telia Company AB (publ) in April 2016.

Telia Company AB (publ) was founded in 1853 and is headquartered in Solna, Sweden.

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1.b. Last Insights on TELIA

Telia Company AB's recent performance was driven by robust EBITDA growth, with the company maintaining dividend stability amidst strategic changes and market challenges. The successful 5G standalone slice handover across multiple countries with Nokia and the Finnish Defense Forces marks a major advancement in the company's 5G capabilities. Additionally, the company's ability to participate in high-profile defense operations demonstrates its strategic importance and potential for future growth.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	46.88
Change Percentage	2.00%
Open	46.15
Previous Close	45.96
Market Cap ( Millions)	184337
Volume	1490627
Year High	46.89
Year Low	32.49
M A 50	42.28
M A 200	37.61

FCF Yield	6.85%
Dividend Yield	4.27%
ROE	6.73%
Debt / Equity	199.65%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	325.97%
Price To Book	3.61
Price Earnings Ratio	52.29
Price To FCF	14.6
Price To sales	2.28
EV / EBITDA	9.9

2. Telia Company's Q4 Results: A Strong Finish to 2025

Telia Company's Q4 results demonstrated a robust financial performance, with service revenue growth improving to 2.1%, driven by strong performance in Consumer, particularly in fixed and broadband. EBITDA growth remained solid at 3.7% in the quarter, albeit below the Q3 level due to increased marketing spend in Finland and Norway. The company's EPS came out at '-0.33265' relative to estimates at '0.523', indicating a significant deviation from expectations. Despite this, the company's revenue growth is estimated to be around 2% for 2026, with EBITDA growth guidance also set at around 3%.

Publication Date: Feb -14

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Free Cash Flow Milestone::
                                                Delivered SEK 9.6 billion free cash flow in 2025, exceeding guidance, with a target of at least SEK 10 billion by 2027.
EBITDA Growth::
                                                Q4 EBITDA grew 3.7%, margin improved by 120 bps in 2025, with 3% growth guidance for 2026.
Sweden Performance::
                                                Achieved 5% revenue growth in Sweden, strongest quarter in modern history, while winning "Best Network" award and improving NPS.
Cost Efficiency::
                                                OpEx dropped 4% in Q4 (4.1% YoY), CapEx at SEK 12.8 billion in 2025, below guidance, reflecting disciplined cost management.
Balance Sheet Strength::
                                                Net debt up SEK 400 million in Q4, but leverage stable at 1.93x, with a 36% total shareholder return in 2025.

                                

Revenue and Margin Analysis

The company's revenue growth was driven by strong performance in Sweden, where revenue growth reached almost 5%, supported by business and mission-critical services, as well as consumer and mobile growth. The EBITDA margin was up again, aligned with the company's September 2024 Capital Markets Day margin expansion promise. Eric Hageman noted that the company expects improvements in Finland, particularly in EBITDA margin, which increased by 120 basis points in 2025.

Cash Flow and Capital Allocation

The company's free cash flow for the fourth quarter came out stronger than expected, mainly due to working capital. For 2025, the company delivered SEK 9.6 billion free cash flow on a normalized spectrum CapEx basis, significantly ahead of the initial free cash flow guidance. The company expects free cash flow to be around SEK 9 billion in 2026, driven by increased EBITDA. Eric Hageman stated that the company takes capital allocation seriously, reducing OpEx and CapEx while investing in growth opportunities like mission critical.

Valuation Metrics

Using the current valuation metrics, we can assess what's priced in. The company's P/E Ratio stands at 49.32, indicating a relatively high valuation. The EV/EBITDA ratio is at 9.53, while the Dividend Yield is 4.52%. The Free Cash Flow Yield is 7.26%, indicating a decent return for investors. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 1.6%, which is lower than the current year's growth rate.

Growth Drivers

Patrik Hofbauer elaborated on the growth drivers for 2026, including continued strong performance in Sweden, pricing efforts, and improvements in Finland and the Baltics. The company's unique position in the Swedish market, particularly with their converged play, is also seen as valuable. Eric Hageman discussed Sweden's growth in 2025, citing it as an "amazing" result, driven by the success of mission critical and price increases.

3. NewsRoom

Telia Company AB (TLSNF) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Cash Flow and Strategic ...

Jan -29

Source:

Telia Lietuva to reorganise Technology unit in digital shift

Jan -07

Source:

Appointment of Marec Gasiun as Executive Vice President of Sales & Marketing at Neonode

Jan -02

Source:

Will Ericsson’s (OM:ERIC B) Extended Telia Deal Redefine Its 5G Edge in Nordic Markets?

Nov -19

Source:

Telia (OM:TELIA) Valuation: How Recent Gains Stack Up Against Analyst Expectations

Nov -19

Source:

Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights America Movil, Telia and TIM

Nov -19

Source:

3 Wireless Non-US Stocks Set to Thrive Against Industry Conundrums

Nov -18

Source:

Telia extends Ericsson RAN partnership in Sweden, Norway, Lithuania and Estonia

Nov -06

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.19%)

6. Segments

Mobile Service - Mobile End User

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Telia Company AB's 2.5% growth in Mobile Service - Mobile End User segment is driven by increasing mobile penetration in the Nordic region, rising demand for data-intensive services, and the company's strategic focus on 5G network expansion and digitalization. Additionally, competitive pricing and innovative offerings have contributed to customer acquisition and retention.

Equipment

Expected Growth: 1.8%

Telia Company AB's equipment segment growth of 1.8% is driven by increasing demand for 5G network infrastructure, IoT devices, and cloud-based services. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation, cost savings initiatives, and strategic partnerships contribute to the growth. Furthermore, the rising need for network upgrades and expansions in the Nordic region also supports the segment's growth.

Fixed Service - Broadband

Expected Growth: 2.2%

Telia Company AB's Fixed Service - Broadband growth of 2.2% is driven by increasing demand for high-speed internet, government initiatives for digitalization, and investments in fiber-optic infrastructure. Additionally, the company's focus on customer experience, competitive pricing, and bundled services contribute to the growth.

Fixed Service - Television

Expected Growth: 1.5%

Telia Company AB's Fixed Service - Television segment growth of 1.5% is driven by increasing demand for high-quality content, expansion of fiber-optic networks, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on bundling TV with broadband and mobile services, as well as investments in digitalization and customer experience, contribute to the growth.

Fixed Service - Business Solutions

Expected Growth: 2.8%

Telia Company AB's Fixed Service - Business Solutions segment growth of 2.8% is driven by increasing demand for digitalization and cloud-based services among Nordic enterprises, coupled with the company's strategic investments in 5G and IoT infrastructure, as well as its strong market position and customer relationships.

Advertising

Expected Growth: 3.0%

Telia Company AB's 3.0% advertising growth is driven by increasing demand for digital marketing services, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. The company's focus on data-driven advertising solutions and investments in emerging technologies such as AI and 5G also contribute to its growth.

Fixed Service - Other

Expected Growth: 1.2%

Telia Company AB's Fixed Service - Other segment growth of 1.2% is driven by increasing demand for digital services, expansion of fiber-optic networks, and growing adoption of IoT solutions. Additionally, the company's focus on cost optimization and operational efficiency has contributed to the growth.

Mobile Service - Other

Expected Growth: 2.0%

Telia Company AB's Mobile Service - Other segment growth of 2.0% is driven by increasing demand for mobile broadband and IoT services, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, investments in 5G network infrastructure and digitalization initiatives have improved customer experience, leading to increased revenue and market share.

Other Service

Expected Growth: 1.0%

Telia Company AB's 1.0% growth in Other Services is driven by increasing demand for digital services, such as IoT and data analytics, as well as growth in IT services and cybersecurity solutions. Additionally, the company's focus on innovation and investments in 5G technology are expected to contribute to future growth.

Fixed Service - Telephony

Expected Growth: 1.8%

Telia Company AB's 1.8% growth in Fixed Service - Telephony is driven by increasing demand for high-speed internet and bundled services, coupled with investments in network infrastructure and customer experience enhancements. Additionally, the company's focus on converged services and digital transformation initiatives contribute to the growth.

Mobile Service - Interconnect

Expected Growth: 2.1%

Telia Company AB's Mobile Service - Interconnect segment growth of 2.1% is driven by increasing mobile data traffic, rising demand for 4G and 5G services, and growing roaming revenues. Additionally, strategic partnerships and network investments have improved interconnectivity, attracting more customers and boosting revenue.

7. Detailed Products

Mobile Services

Telia Company provides mobile voice and data services to individuals and businesses, including mobile broadband, mobile voice, and mobile data services.

Fixed Broadband

Telia Company offers fixed broadband services, including fiber-based broadband, to provide high-speed internet access to homes and businesses.

TV and Media Services

Telia Company provides TV and media services, including IPTV, streaming services, and on-demand content, to individuals and businesses.

Cloud and IT Services

Telia Company offers cloud and IT services, including cloud infrastructure, managed services, and cybersecurity solutions, to businesses and organizations.

Network and Infrastructure Services

Telia Company provides network and infrastructure services, including data center services, colocation, and network connectivity, to businesses and organizations.

IoT and M2M Services

Telia Company offers IoT and M2M services, including device management, data analytics, and connectivity solutions, to businesses and organizations.

8. Telia Company AB (publ)'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Telia Company AB (publ) faces moderate threat from substitutes, as customers have limited alternatives for telecommunications services. However, the increasing adoption of over-the-top (OTT) services and VoIP technology poses a moderate threat to the company's traditional voice and messaging services.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Telia Company AB (publ) has a large customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's diversified product offerings and strong brand presence reduce the likelihood of customers switching to competitors.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Telia Company AB (publ) relies on a few large suppliers for network equipment and infrastructure. While the company has some bargaining power due to its size, suppliers may still exert some pressure on prices and delivery terms.

Threat Of New Entrants

The telecommunications industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital expenditures and regulatory hurdles. This limits the threat of new entrants and allows Telia Company AB (publ) to maintain its market position.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The telecommunications industry is highly competitive, with multiple players vying for market share. Telia Company AB (publ) faces intense competition from rivals such as Tele2, Telenor, and 3 Sweden, which may lead to pricing pressures and reduced market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	64.71%
Debt Cost	3.95%
Equity Weight	35.29%
Equity Cost	4.86%
WACC	4.27%
Leverage	183.39%

11. Quality Control: Telia Company AB (publ) passed 0 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Deb

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Inefficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Proximus

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 9.1

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Freenet

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 7.7

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Telia Company

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

United Internet

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Tele2

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

1&1

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 5.5

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

-5.42%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

4.27%

Telia Company AB (publ) - SE0000667925

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on TELIA

1.c. Company Highlights

Higher Yield

Lower Quality

Less Volatile

Earnings Miss

Revenues Miss

Earnings Beats

Strong Momentum

Revenues Beats

Average Growth

2. Telia Company's Q4 Results: A Strong Finish to 2025

Revenue and Margin Analysis

Cash Flow and Capital Allocation

Valuation Metrics

Growth Drivers

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.19%)

6. Segments

Mobile Service - Mobile End User

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Equipment

Expected Growth: 1.8%

Fixed Service - Broadband

Expected Growth: 2.2%

Fixed Service - Television

Expected Growth: 1.5%

Fixed Service - Business Solutions

Expected Growth: 2.8%

Advertising

Expected Growth: 3.0%

Fixed Service - Other

Expected Growth: 1.2%

Mobile Service - Other

Expected Growth: 2.0%

Other Service

Expected Growth: 1.0%

Fixed Service - Telephony

Expected Growth: 1.8%

Mobile Service - Interconnect

Expected Growth: 2.1%

7. Detailed Products

Mobile Services

Fixed Broadband

TV and Media Services

Cloud and IT Services

Network and Infrastructure Services

IoT and M2M Services

8. Telia Company AB (publ)'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Telia Company AB (publ) passed 0 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA