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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Grieg Seafood ASA, through its subsidiaries, operates as a fish farming company.It engages in the production and sale of Atlantic salmon.The company supplies its fish products to customers in the European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Asia, and other markets.


Grieg Seafood ASA was founded in 1884 and is headquartered in Bergen, Norway.

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1.b. Last Insights on GSF

Grieg Seafood ASA's recent performance was marred by the departure of CEO Andreas Kvame, who stepped down after a decade in the role. The interim assumption of the position by Nina Willumsen Grieg may lead to a temporary disruption in the company's strategic direction. Furthermore, the absence of a permanent CEO may create uncertainty among investors and stakeholders.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Grieg Seafood's Q3 Results: A Mixed Bag

Grieg Seafood's third-quarter financial performance was marked by a decline in sales revenues due to lower prices and average weights, resulting in an operational EBIT of negative NOK 1 million for continued operations. The actual EPS came out at '-0.55', slightly worse than estimates at '-0.49737'. The company's operational EBIT per kilo for farming activities was NOK 3.2, while farming costs for the quarter stood at NOK 70.4 per kilo. Despite the challenging quarter, the company's high contract share and superior fish quality helped offset losses.

Publication Date: Nov -16

📋 Highlights
  • Regulatory and Operational Progress: Full U.S. and Norway regulatory clearances, Canadian transaction progress, with Rogaland's operational EBIT at NOK 21.7 million despite high costs.
  • Financial Performance: Declining sales revenues offset by strong contract prices and fish quality, resulting in negative NOK 1 million operational EBIT for continued operations.
  • Operational Efficiency Gains: Post-smolt strategy improved survival rates and reduced sea lice treatments, alongside NOK 110 million CapEx reduction in the new operating model.
  • Dividend and Liquidity Outlook: Preliminary NOK 4 billion dividend estimate and NOK 3.7 billion net interest-bearing debt, emphasizing liquidity optimization for industry strength.
  • Cost and EBITDA Projections: Farming costs expected at NOK 62.5 for full year (above target of NOK 60), with EBITDA within locked-box limits and positive 2026 market outlook.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance in Rogaland was a bright spot, with an operational EBIT of NOK 21.7 million, despite high farming costs. The new operating model, centered in Rogaland, is yielding positive results, including improved survival rates, reduced sea lice treatments, and increased efficiency. As Nina Grieg, CEO, noted, the post-smolt strategy is working, and the company is optimistic about the trend seen last year.

Cost Structure and Outlook

The company's farming costs are expected to decrease in Q4 but remain above the long-term target of NOK 60. For the full year, the cost is expected to be around NOK 62.5, and the EBITDA is well within the locked-box limit. The health of fish groups expected to be harvested in 2026 is good, giving the company optimism for next year. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -24.6%, indicating a challenging environment.

Valuation and Dividend

With a P/E Ratio of -3.43 and an EV/EBITDA of -10.28, the company's valuation metrics suggest a challenging earnings environment. However, the company has a preliminary estimate of NOK 4 billion in dividend distribution to shareholders following the closing of annual accounts next year. The net interest-bearing debt level for continued operations stands at NOK 3.7 billion, with an increase of NOK 700 million due to financing discontinued operations.

Strategic Focus

The company's strategic building blocks include strengthening Rogaland, prioritizing and future-proofing operations, and considering potential growth opportunities. Despite the Q3 results not meeting expectations, the underlying fundamentals of production and a positive market outlook for 2026 give the CEO optimism for next year.

3. NewsRoom

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European Small Caps With Insider Buying Highlight Undervalued Opportunities

Nov -25

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Grieg Seafood ASA (FRA:GR8) (Q3 2025) Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with ...

Nov -13

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Interim CEO made permanent at Grieg Seafood

Aug -26

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Cermaq buys three salmon plants from Norway peer Grieg Seafood

Jul -17

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Japan's Mitsubishi expands in salmon farming with acquisitions in Norway, Canada

Jul -17

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Grieg Seafood sells Finnmark, Canada units to Mitsubishi's Cermaq for $993 million

Jul -17

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Grieg Seafood CEO Andreas Kvame steps down after decade in role

Mar -31

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Grieg Seafood ASA (STU:GR8) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Production Amidst ...

Nov -28

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.05%)

6. Segments

Fresh Whole Fish

Expected Growth: 10%

Grieg Seafood ASA's 10% growth in Fresh Whole Fish is driven by increasing demand for sustainable seafood, rising consumer preference for healthy protein sources, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, the company's focus on aquaculture and vertical integration enables cost savings and improved quality control, further supporting growth.

Fresh Processed Fish

Expected Growth: 12%

Grieg Seafood ASA's 12% growth in Fresh Processed Fish is driven by increasing demand for sustainable seafood, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on innovative products, such as value-added fillets and ready-to-eat meals, has contributed to its growth. Furthermore, the company's commitment to reducing environmental impact and improving operational efficiency has also supported its growth momentum.

Frozen Processed Fish

Expected Growth: 9%

Grieg Seafood ASA's 9% growth in Frozen Processed Fish is driven by increasing demand for sustainable seafood, rising popularity of healthy protein sources, and expanding distribution channels in Asia and Europe. Additionally, the company's focus on product innovation, efficient supply chain management, and strategic partnerships contribute to its growth momentum.

Other

Expected Growth: 8%

Grieg Seafood ASA's 8% growth is driven by increasing demand for sustainable seafood, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on cost reduction, improved operational efficiency, and investment in technology have contributed to its growth. Furthermore, the rising trend of health-conscious consumers and growing popularity of seafood in Asia have also boosted the company's revenue.

7. Detailed Products

Atlantic Salmon

Fresh and frozen Atlantic salmon, farmed in Norway and Scotland, sold to wholesalers, retailers, and processors globally.

Organic Salmon

Certified organic salmon, farmed in Norway, sold to wholesalers, retailers, and processors globally.

Smoked Salmon

Smoked Atlantic salmon, processed in Norway, sold to wholesalers, retailers, and foodservice providers globally.

Value-Added Products

Prepared and processed seafood products, including marinated, seasoned, and breaded salmon, sold to wholesalers, retailers, and foodservice providers globally.

Fishmeal and Fish Oil

Fishmeal and fish oil products, used as ingredients in animal feed, aquaculture, and industrial applications.

8. Grieg Seafood ASA's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Grieg Seafood ASA is moderate due to the availability of alternative protein sources such as poultry, pork, and beef.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low due to the fragmented nature of the seafood market, making it difficult for individual customers to negotiate prices.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is moderate due to the concentration of suppliers in the seafood industry, giving them some negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the seafood industry, including regulatory hurdles and significant capital requirements.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the competitive nature of the seafood industry, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 44.52%
Debt Cost 7.22%
Equity Weight 55.48%
Equity Cost 7.22%
WACC 7.22%
Leverage 80.24%

11. Quality Control: Grieg Seafood ASA passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Grieg Seafood

A-Score: 4.4/10

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Quality: 3.2

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A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 1.2

Yield: 6.2

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

72.75$

Current Price

72.75$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows