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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc.(NYSE: PINE) is a publicly traded real estate investment trust that acquires, owns and operates a portfolio of high-quality single-tenant net leased commercial income properties.

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1.b. Last Insights on PINE

Alpine Income Property Trust's recent momentum is driven by its robust Q4 earnings, with FFO of $0.54 per share surpassing estimates. The company's amended and restated unsecured credit facility, worth $450 million, has effectively retired prior unsecured debt. Additionally, the acquisition of a retail property in Aspen, Colorado, for $10 million, is expected to generate an initial cap rate of 8.5% with annual escalators.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Alpine's Q4 2025 Earnings: A Strong Close to the Year

Alpine reported a robust fourth quarter with total revenue of $16.9 million and $60.5 million for the full year. The company's FFO and AFFO attributable to common stockholders were $0.54 per diluted share and $1.89 per diluted share, respectively, representing 22.7% and 8.6% growth over the prior year. However, the actual EPS came out at $0.06, significantly lower than estimates of $0.49. The company's financial performance was highlighted by a strong growth in AFFO per common share, driven by its successful execution of its business plan, including property acquisitions and sales.

Publication Date: Mar -06

📋 Highlights
  • Strong AFFO Growth:: 22.7% increase to $1.89 per diluted share in Q4 2025.
  • Record Annual Investments:: $277.7 million in total investments for 2025, driven by $100.6 million in property acquisitions.
  • High-Capacity Acquisitions:: 13 properties acquired in 2025 at 7.4% weighted average cap rate; 8 in Q4 at 6.9% cap rate.
  • Earnings Guidance 2026:: FFO/AFFO per share projected at $2.07–$2.11 and $2.09–$2.13, with $70–$100 million investment volume.
  • Capital Raise & Liquidity:: $50 million raised via Series A preferred stock offering, plus $97.3 million liquidity at year-end.

Investment Activity and Portfolio Growth

Alpine acquired 8 properties for approximately $40 million at a weighted average initial cash cap rate of 6.9% in the fourth quarter, taking the total investments for 2025 to $277.7 million. The company's loan portfolio had $130 million outstanding at the end of 2025, with a weighted average coupon rate of 12.4%. John Albright noted that the loan portfolio is expected to continue growing as the company originates new loans, with a strong pipeline that includes grocery-anchored development and investment-grade credit development with new relationships.

Balance Sheet and Liquidity

The company's balance sheet showed significant capital markets activity in the fourth quarter, including a public offering of 2 million shares of Series A preferred stock, which raised $50 million of gross proceeds. Alpine had $97.3 million of potential liquidity at year-end, and its debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio improved to 6.7x. Philip Mays stated that the company will use a mix of ATM draws and credit facility draws to fund new investments, with a focus on modest growth.

Outlook and Valuation

Alpine provided initial earnings guidance for 2026, with FFO and AFFO per diluted common share expected to be $2.07 to $2.11 and $2.09 to $2.13, respectively. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 2.9%. The company's valuation metrics show a P/E Ratio of -106.3, a P/B Ratio of 1.01, and a Dividend Yield of 5.78%. The EV/EBITDA ratio is 15.82, indicating a relatively high valuation. However, the company's ROE is -1.09%, and its Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 8.97, which may be a concern. Philip Mays clarified that the $0.54 earnings per share in the fourth quarter includes several one-time items, and the run rate for EPS would be around $0.50 to $0.51 if these items are excluded.

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.00%)

6. Segments

Retail Real Estate

Expected Growth: 2.0%

Alpine Income Property Trust's 2.0% growth in Retail Real Estate is driven by increasing demand for essential retail services, e-commerce resistant tenants, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on high-quality, necessity-based retail properties with long-term leases and strong credit tenants contributes to its stable growth.

7. Detailed Products

Net Leased Properties

Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. invests in and manages a diversified portfolio of net leased properties, providing a steady income stream to its investors.

Industrial Properties

The company acquires and manages industrial properties, including warehouses, distribution centers, and manufacturing facilities, leased to creditworthy tenants.

Office Properties

Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. invests in and manages a portfolio of office properties, including suburban and urban office buildings, leased to a diverse range of tenants.

Retail Properties

The company acquires and manages a diversified portfolio of retail properties, including shopping centers, strip centers, and single-tenant retail properties.

8. Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. operates in a niche market, providing a unique combination of real estate investment and management services. While there are substitutes available, the company's specialized offerings and strong brand reputation mitigate the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc.'s customers are primarily institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals, who have limited bargaining power due to the company's specialized services and strong market position.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. relies on a network of suppliers, including property managers, contractors, and service providers. While the company has some bargaining power, suppliers can still exert some influence due to the specialized nature of their services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The barriers to entry in the real estate investment and management industry are relatively high, requiring significant capital and expertise. This limits the threat of new entrants and allows Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. to maintain its market position.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The real estate investment and management industry is highly competitive, with several established players competing for market share. Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. must continually innovate and improve its services to maintain its competitive edge.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 52.95%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 47.05%
Equity Cost 8.01%
WACC 5.86%
Leverage 112.53%

11. Quality Control: Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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CBL Properties

A-Score: 7.8/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 8.4

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Getty Realty

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 3.2

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Saul Centers

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 5.5

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Alpine Income Property Trust

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 3.3

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Alexanders

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Acadia Realty

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 2.4

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

19.54$

Current Price

19.54$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows