Saul Centers, Inc. (BFS) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Saul Centers, Inc.is a self-managed, self-administered equity REIT headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, which currently operates and manages a real estate portfolio of 60 properties which includes (a) 50 community and neighborhood shopping centers and seven mixed-use properties with approximately 9.8 million square feet of leasable area and (b) three land and development properties.Approximately 85% of the Saul Centers' property operating income is generated by properties in the metropolitan Washington, DC/Baltimore area.

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1.b. Last Insights on BFS

Saul Centers, Inc. recent performance was negatively driven by weak Q4 earnings and revenues, missing estimates. The company reported FFO of $0.63 per share, below the consensus estimate of $0.68. Additionally, Q4 results were impacted by project accounting, with a significant increase in costs due to the completion of Twinbrook Quarter Phase 1. High occupancy rates are offset by cost inflation and office space weakness, limiting the potential for same property growth and dividend increases. Recent M&A activity and potential buyout targets, including REITs trading below NAV, may also be a concern for investors.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	30.25
Change Percentage	1.10%
Open	29.87
Previous Close	29.92
Market Cap ( Millions)	738
Volume	37508
Year High	40.77
Year Low	29.16
M A 50	30.54
M A 200	33.08

FCF Yield	14.41%
Dividend Yield	7.80%
ROE	12.00%
Debt / Equity	322.85%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	541.03%
Price To Book	2.31
Price Earnings Ratio	18.74
Price To FCF	6.94
Price To sales	2.61
EV / EBITDA	9.36

2. Transcript Summary

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3. NewsRoom

Saul Centers Declares Quarterly Dividends

Dec -04

Source: prnewswire.com

Colosseum BFS Drilling Returns Wide Intercepts in North Pipe

Dec -03

Source: accessnewswire.com

Saul Centers, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2025 Earnings

Nov -06

Source: prnewswire.com

Asset Management One Co. Ltd. Sells 1,053 Shares of Saul Centers, Inc. $BFS

Oct -31

Source: defenseworld.net

CORRECTING AND REPLACING: Dateline Advances BFS, Prepares to Test Gold & REE Targets

Oct -27

Source: accessnewswire.com

Dateline Advances BFS, Prepares to Test Gold & REE Targets

Oct -27

Source: accessnewswire.com

Head to Head Analysis: Saul Centers (NYSE:BFS) & Phillips Edison & Company, Inc. (NASDAQ:PECO)

Oct -23

Source: defenseworld.net

Saul Centers: The Dividend Is Safe Against Headwinds

Oct -06

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.80%)

6. Segments

Shopping Centers

Expected Growth: 3.5%

Saul Centers' diversified retail portfolio, strategic locations, and strong tenant mix drive growth. Increasing demand for experiential retail, e-commerce resistance, and a strong office market also contribute to growth.

Mixed-Use Properties

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Growing demand for mixed-use properties driven by urbanization, changing lifestyles, and increasing need for convenience, proximity, and community living experiences.

7. Detailed Products

Office Properties

Saul Centers, Inc. owns and operates a portfolio of office properties, providing high-quality office spaces for businesses and organizations.

Retail Properties

Saul Centers, Inc. develops and manages retail properties, offering a range of shopping and dining experiences for consumers.

Mixed-Use Properties

Saul Centers, Inc. creates mixed-use properties that combine office, retail, and residential spaces, fostering vibrant and dynamic communities.

Residential Properties

Saul Centers, Inc. develops and manages residential properties, offering a range of housing options for individuals and families.

8. Saul Centers, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Saul Centers, Inc. operates in the real estate investment trust (REIT) industry, which has a moderate threat of substitutes. While there are alternative investment options available, the company's diversified portfolio and strong brand presence mitigate the threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Saul Centers, Inc. has a diverse tenant base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's properties are strategically located, making it difficult for customers to find alternative options.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Saul Centers, Inc. relies on a few major suppliers for construction and maintenance services. While the company has some bargaining power due to its size, suppliers still have some leverage, particularly in times of high demand.

Threat Of New Entrants

The REIT industry has significant barriers to entry, including high capital requirements and regulatory hurdles. Additionally, Saul Centers, Inc. has a strong brand presence and established relationships with tenants, making it difficult for new entrants to compete.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The REIT industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for tenants and investment capital. Saul Centers, Inc. must continually innovate and improve its properties to remain competitive.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	79.92%
Debt Cost	6.48%
Equity Weight	20.08%
Equity Cost	9.25%
WACC	7.04%
Leverage	398.12%

11. Quality Control: Saul Centers, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Deb

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

CBL Properties

A-Score: 8.0/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 8.4

Quality: 7.8

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Alexanders

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 7.6

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Getty Realty

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Saul Centers

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Alpine Income Property Trust

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Acadia Realty

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 2.6

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

-4.58%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

7.04%

Saul Centers, Inc. - US8043951016

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on BFS

1.c. Company Highlights

Average Yield

Average Quality

Medium Volatility

Earnings Beats

Revenues Miss

Earnings Miss

Revenues Beats

Average Growth

Fairly Valued

Stable Momentum

2. Transcript Summary

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.80%)

6. Segments

Shopping Centers

Expected Growth: 3.5%

Mixed-Use Properties

Expected Growth: 4.5%

7. Detailed Products

Office Properties

Retail Properties

Mixed-Use Properties

Residential Properties

8. Saul Centers, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Saul Centers, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

30.25$

Current Price

30.25$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA