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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Burlington Stores, Inc.operates as a retailer of branded apparel products in the United States.The company provides fashion-focused merchandise, including women's ready-to-wear apparel, menswear, youth apparel, footwear, accessories, toys, gifts, and coats, as well as baby, home, and beauty products.


As of January 29, 2022, it operated 837 stores under the Burlington Stores name, 2 stores under the Cohoes Fashions name, and 1 store under the MJM Designer Shoes name in 45 states and Puerto Rico.Burlington Stores, Inc.was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Burlington, New Jersey.

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1.b. Last Insights on BURL

Burlington Stores' recent performance was driven by strong Q4 results, characterized by double-digit sales growth and improved margins. The company's revenue grew 11.3%, with 4% comparable sales growth and expanded gross margins by 80bps to 43.7%. Adjusted EPS reached $4.99 and EBITDA was $562 million. Robust liquidity of $2.16 billion and continued share repurchases support flexibility for expansion. Positive investor sentiment was also seen with Alberta Investment Management Corp and Fieldview Capital Management LLC making new investments in the company.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Burlington Stores' Q4 2025 Earnings: A Strong Finish to a Resilient Year

Burlington Stores, Inc. reported a robust fourth quarter 2025, with total sales increasing 11% and comparable store sales up 4%, beating guidance. The company achieved 100 basis points of operating margin expansion and 21% earnings per share growth. For the full year 2025, total sales grew 9%, with comparable store sales up 2%, and operating margin expanded by 80 basis points. Earnings per share increased 22% to $1.8, surpassing estimates of $1.64. The strong performance was driven by the company's elevation strategy, focusing on better brands and higher quality products.

Publication Date: Mar -06

📋 Highlights
  • Q4 2025 Performance:: Total sales rose 11%, comp sales up 4%, and EPS surged 21%.
  • Full-Year 2025 Growth:: Sales grew 9%, comp sales +2%, margin expanded 80 bps, and EPS rose 22%.
  • Elevation Strategy Success:: Higher price buckets drove comp growth, with no margin decline despite product quality upgrades.
  • Tariff Mitigation Impact:: Strategic shifts (reducing inventory, raising prices) boosted 80 bps margin expansion and 22% EPS growth.
  • 2026 Outlook:: Guidance includes 8–10% sales growth, 1–3% comp sales, and 8–13% EPS growth, with 110 new stores planned.

Elevation Strategy Driving Success

The elevation strategy has been successful, with higher customer perception scores, stronger comp growth in higher price buckets, and higher average unit retail and transaction size. This has been achieved without taking a hit to margin, with merchandise margin driven by lower shortage and actions to mitigate tariffs. As the company noted, "The elevation strategy has driven success, with the highest comp growth rates in higher price buckets."

Outlook and Guidance

Looking ahead to 2026, the company feels "bullish" about its sales outlook, citing a resilient customer base, a favorable tax refund season, and easier comp sales comparisons. Guidance for 2026 includes total sales growth of 8% to 10%, comp store sales growth of 1% to 3%, and adjusted EBIT margin expansion of 0 to 20 basis points. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to increase 8% to 13%. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 9.2%, indicating a consistent growth trajectory.

Valuation Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 33.79 and an EV/EBITDA of 17.69, the market is pricing in a certain level of growth. Burlington's ROE of 29.69% and ROIC of 9.54% indicate a strong ability to generate returns on equity and invested capital. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio of 2.12 suggests a manageable debt burden.

Operational Highlights

The company is making significant progress in reducing expenses as a percentage of sales through numerous productivity initiatives and cost savings projects. A new distribution center in Savannah, Georgia, is set to open in spring 2026, which will drive cost efficiencies and faster processing times. The new store pipeline is strong, with plans to open 110 net new stores in 2026.

Localization and Assortment

Localization is a major opportunity, with initiatives underway to customize and localize assortments based on region, climate, income levels, and demographics. This will involve better store and class-level planning and forecasting, stronger localization analytics, and new store assortment planning. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on its strengths and drive continued growth.

3. NewsRoom

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Cinctive Capital Management LP Trims Stock Holdings in Burlington Stores, Inc. $BURL

Mar -16

Source: defenseworld.net

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Alkeon Capital Management LLC Acquires 175,000 Shares of Burlington Stores, Inc. $BURL

Mar -15

Source: defenseworld.net

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Capital Group Private Client Services Inc. Decreases Stake in Burlington Stores, Inc. $BURL

Mar -11

Source: defenseworld.net

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2,762 Shares in Burlington Stores, Inc. $BURL Acquired by Fieldview Capital Management LLC

Mar -11

Source: defenseworld.net

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Dimensional Fund Advisors LP Reduces Holdings in Burlington Stores, Inc. $BURL

Mar -10

Source: defenseworld.net

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Burlington Stores' Strong Year Should Lift the Stock. What Comes Next.

Mar -06

Source: barrons.com

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Burlington Upside Tied To Aggressive Sales Potential, Analyst Says

Mar -06

Source: benzinga.com

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BURL Stock Up 7% After Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates & Comps Up Y/Y

Mar -06

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.69%)

6. Segments

Accessories and Shoes

Expected Growth: 10%

Burlington Stores, Inc.'s Accessories and Shoes segment growth is driven by increasing off-price demand, effective inventory management, and strategic store expansions. Additionally, the company's focus on private label brands, competitive pricing, and enhanced customer experience contribute to the 10% growth rate.

Ladies Apparel

Expected Growth: 12%

Burlington Stores' Ladies Apparel segment growth of 12% is driven by increasing demand for affordable and trendy clothing, effective off-price business model, strategic store expansion, and strong inventory management. Additionally, the company's focus on private label brands, e-commerce growth, and competitive pricing also contribute to the segment's growth.

Home

Expected Growth: 9%

Burlington Stores' Home segment growth is driven by increasing demand for off-price home decor and furniture, expansion of e-commerce capabilities, and strategic store remodels. Additionally, the company's focus on offering high-quality products at discounted prices, effective inventory management, and strong vendor relationships contribute to its 9% growth.

Mens Apparel

Expected Growth: 11%

Burlington Stores, Inc.'s 11% growth in Mens Apparel is driven by increasing demand for affordable, high-quality clothing, effective off-price business model, strategic store expansion, and strong inventory management. Additionally, the company's focus on private label brands, such as Burlington and MXD, contributes to its growth.

Kids Apparel and Baby

Expected Growth: 13%

Burlington Stores' Kids Apparel and Baby segment growth of 13% is driven by increasing demand for affordable, high-quality products, effective inventory management, and strategic store expansions. Additionally, the company's off-price model, which offers customers a treasure hunt experience, contributes to the segment's growth. Furthermore, the rise of online shopping and investments in e-commerce capabilities also support the segment's expansion.

Outerwear

Expected Growth: 8%

Burlington Stores' Outerwear segment growth of 8% is driven by increasing demand for affordable and trendy winter apparel, particularly among budget-conscious consumers. Additionally, the company's off-price business model, which offers high-quality products at discounted prices, resonates with price-sensitive customers. Furthermore, Burlington's strategic store expansion and effective inventory management also contribute to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Women's Apparel

Burlington Stores, Inc. offers a wide range of women's apparel, including tops, bottoms, dresses, outerwear, and more from popular brands and designers.

Men's Apparel

Burlington Stores, Inc. provides a variety of men's apparel, including casual wear, dress wear, outerwear, and accessories from well-known brands.

Kids' Apparel

Burlington Stores, Inc. offers a broad selection of kids' apparel, including clothing, shoes, and accessories for boys and girls from popular brands.

Home Goods

Burlington Stores, Inc. sells a wide range of home goods, including bedding, kitchenware, decorative items, and more from popular brands.

Accessories

Burlington Stores, Inc. offers a variety of accessories, including handbags, shoes, hats, scarves, and jewelry from popular brands.

Coats and Jackets

Burlington Stores, Inc. provides a broad selection of coats and jackets for men, women, and kids from popular brands.

Shoes

Burlington Stores, Inc. sells a wide range of shoes for men, women, and kids, including boots, sneakers, sandals, and more from popular brands.

8. Burlington Stores, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Burlington Stores, Inc. operates in the off-price apparel and home goods retail industry, where substitutes are limited. However, customers may choose to shop at other off-price retailers or online marketplaces, posing a moderate threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Burlington Stores, Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry, but customers have limited bargaining power due to the company's off-price business model, which offers low prices and a wide selection of products.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Burlington Stores, Inc. sources products from a diverse range of suppliers, which reduces dependence on individual suppliers. However, suppliers may still exert some bargaining power due to the company's reliance on them for high-quality products.

Threat Of New Entrants

The off-price apparel and home goods retail industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and the need for a large and complex supply chain. This limits the threat of new entrants.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The off-price apparel and home goods retail industry is highly competitive, with several established players competing for market share. Burlington Stores, Inc. faces intense rivalry from companies like TJX Companies and Ross Stores.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 64.29%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 35.71%
Equity Cost 11.62%
WACC 6.69%
Leverage 180.06%

11. Quality Control: Burlington Stores, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Gap

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 1.7

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Stock-Card
Urban Outfitters

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 6.8

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Boot Barn

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 2.3

Growth: 7.9

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Foot Locker

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
American Eagle Outfitters

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Burlington Stores

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 3.0

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

302.56$

Current Price

302.56$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows