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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide.Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products.


The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products; and compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium.It primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users.The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.

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1.b. Last Insights on CF

Breaking News: CF Industries Holdings Inc has been identified as a potential beneficiary of ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. As a US-based fertilizer producer and exporter, the company is well-positioned to outperform due to supply chain shifts. With the recent news, CF Industries is expected to see increased demand for its products. Analysts at Goldman recommend a buy, citing the company's strong position in the fertilizer market. CF Industries recent earnings release showed a net income of $815 million.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. CF Industries' Strong 2025 Results and Promising 2026 Outlook

CF Industries reported a robust financial performance for the full year 2025, with adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.9 billion and net earnings attributable to common stockholders of $1.5 billion, or $8.97 per diluted share. The company's fourth-quarter 2025 net earnings attributable to common stockholders were $404 million, or $2.59 per diluted share, with EBITDA of $731 million and adjusted EBITDA of $821 million. The actual EPS for Q4 came in at $2.59, slightly above estimates. For the full year, the company's production of gross ammonia was 10.1 million tons at a 97% utilization rate. The reported EPS beat the analyst estimates, showcasing the company's strong operational performance.

Publication Date: Feb -22

📋 Highlights
  • Strong 2025 Financial Performance:: CF Industries reported adjusted EBITDA of $2.9B and net earnings of $1.5B ($8.97/share), with Q4 EBITDA at $821M.
  • High Ammonia Production Efficiency:: Delivered 10.1M tons of ammonia in 2025 at 97% utilization, with 2026 guidance at ~9.5M tons.
  • Robust Shareholder Returns:: Generated $1.8B in free cash flow in 2025, returning $1.7B to shareholders via $1.3B in share repurchases (16.6M shares).
  • Yazoo City Complex Insurance Coverage:: Incident costs expected to total $200M in 2026 EBITDA impact, with insurance proceeds expected to offset most or all losses.
  • 2026 Market Outlook:: Tight nitrogen supply and strong demand projected, with urea prices rising to $450/ton in NOLA (up $100 from Dec 2025) and CO2 sequestration at Donaldsonville boosting EBITDA.

Operational Performance

The Yazoo City Complex incident in November led to a decision to rebuild the ammonium nitrate plant, expected to resume production in Q4 2026. Despite this setback, the company produced 10.1 million tons of gross ammonia in 2025. For 2026, it expects to produce approximately 9.5 million tons of gross ammonia. The full-year EBITDA impact of not running the Yazoo City Complex is expected to be around $200 million; however, the company has business interruption insurance for the site and expects to receive insurance proceeds in 2026 to offset most or all of the loss.

Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns

The company generated $2.75 billion in net cash from operations in 2025 and $1.8 billion in free cash flow, returning $1.7 billion to shareholders, including $1.3 billion to repurchase 16.6 million shares. CF Industries completed a $1 billion senior notes offering in Q4 2025 to refinance debt and strengthen financial flexibility. It repurchased 4.1 million shares for $340 million in Q4 2025, completing its $3 billion share repurchase program and commencing a new $2 billion program.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/E Ratio of 10.41 and an EV/EBITDA of 5.33, the company's valuation appears reasonable given its strong financial performance. The global nitrogen market dynamics remain constructive, with strong demand and limited supply. CF Industries expects the global nitrogen market to remain tight in the near term, driven by a lack of new supply coming online and growing demand. The company expects 2026 to be strong, driven by a tight market, with the first half looking particularly strong. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -4.2%, but the company's guidance and operational performance suggest a positive outlook.

Growth Initiatives and Market Trends

The Blue Point project with JERA and Mitsui is progressing well, with civil work expected to begin in Q2 2026. The company is seeing growing interest in low-carbon ammonia and nitrogen products, driven by initiatives such as Japan's $20 billion hydrogen hub. CF Industries is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, with a strong order book and a focus on execution. The company's capital expenditures in 2026 are expected to be approximately $950 million, with $550 million for sustaining CapEx and $400 million for growth projects, including Blue Point.

3. NewsRoom

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10 No-Brainer Stocks to Buy as Long as the Strait of Hormuz Is Closed

01:05

Source: fool.com

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Assenagon Asset Management S.A. Has $3.25 Million Stock Holdings in CF Industries Holdings, Inc. $CF

Mar -30

Source: defenseworld.net

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Oil and Fertilizer Prices May Soon Have Ripple Effects on These 3 Commodities Stocks

Mar -29

Source: fool.com

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UBS Lifts CF Industries to $140 Price Target: Urea Prices Are Up 77% and the Market Hasn't Caught On

Mar -26

Source: 247wallst.com

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5 Ripple Effects From the Strait of Hormuz Blockade Affecting Energy Stocks

Mar -25

Source: fool.com

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Dow Up Over 1,000 Points as War Respite Drives Optimism

Mar -23

Source: schaeffersresearch.com

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The Iran War Just Triggered a Bigger Energy Shock Than the 1970s Oil Crisis. What It Means for Your Portfolio.

Mar -21

Source: fool.com

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CF Industries Is Up 59% Year to Date and a DOJ Probe Just Complicated the Story

Mar -20

Source: 247wallst.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.72%)

6. Segments

Urea Ammonium Nitrate

Expected Growth: 4.65%

CF Industries Holdings' Urea Ammonium Nitrate growth of 4.65% is driven by increasing demand from the agricultural sector, particularly in North America and South America, due to rising crop prices and growing adoption of precision farming practices. Additionally, the company's strategic expansion into new markets and capacity additions have contributed to the growth.

Granular Urea

Expected Growth: 4.83%

CF Industries Holdings' Granular Urea growth is driven by increasing global demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers, driven by population growth, urbanization, and the need for higher crop yields. Additionally, the company's strategic expansion into high-growth markets, such as Brazil and India, and its focus on operational efficiency and cost reduction, contribute to its 4.83% growth rate.

Ammonia

Expected Growth: 4.65%

CF Industries Holdings' ammonia segment growth is driven by increasing global demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers, particularly in the agriculture sector. Strong crop prices and favorable weather conditions boost fertilizer application rates, while capacity expansions and strategic partnerships enhance production efficiency. Additionally, the company's cost-advantaged position and operational excellence support margin expansion, contributing to the 4.65% growth rate.

Other

Expected Growth: 4.7%

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s 4.7% growth is driven by increasing global demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers, particularly in the Americas and Asia. Strong crop prices, favorable weather conditions, and rising biofuel production also contribute to growth. Additionally, the company's strategic investments in production capacity expansion and cost-saving initiatives enhance its competitiveness and profitability.

Ammonium Nitrate

Expected Growth: 4.83%

CF Industries' Ammonium Nitrate growth is driven by increasing global demand for fertilizers, particularly in the agriculture sector. Rising crop prices and government subsidies for farmers also contribute to growth. Additionally, the company's strategic expansion into new markets and its cost-saving initiatives have improved operational efficiency, further boosting growth.

7. Detailed Products

Nitrogen Fertilizers

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. produces nitrogen fertilizers, including anhydrous ammonia, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), and ammonium nitrate, which are used to promote plant growth and increase crop yields.

Phosphate Fertilizers

The company produces phosphate fertilizers, including diammonium phosphate (DAP) and monoammonium phosphate (MAP), which provide essential nutrients for plant growth.

Potash Fertilizers

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. produces potash fertilizers, including potassium chloride (KCl), which is used to promote plant growth and increase crop yields.

Sulfuric Acid

The company produces sulfuric acid, a key ingredient in the production of fertilizers and other industrial products.

8. CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative fertilizers and agricultural products. While there are some substitutes available, they may not offer the same quality or performance as CF Industries' products.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is low due to the company's strong market position and the lack of concentration among its customer base.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is medium due to the presence of several large suppliers of raw materials. While the company has some negotiating power, suppliers also have some bargaining power due to the importance of their products.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the fertilizer industry, including the need for significant capital investment and regulatory approvals.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is high due to the competitive nature of the fertilizer industry, with several large players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 34.89%
Debt Cost 5.68%
Equity Weight 65.11%
Equity Cost 9.05%
WACC 7.87%
Leverage 53.59%

11. Quality Control: CF Industries Holdings, Inc. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
CF Industries

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Mosaic

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 9.1

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 5.7

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Steel Dynamics

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 3.5

Growth: 7.1

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Scotts Miracle-Gro

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 5.7

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Boise Cascade

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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FMC

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 9.1

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

128.02$

Current Price

128.02$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows