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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally.The company operates through three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes.It owns and operates mines, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and ammoniated phosphate products; and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients primarily under the Biofos and Nexfos brand names, as well as produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under K-Mag brand name.


The company also produces and sells potash for use in the manufacturing of mixed crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients, and for industrial use; and for use in the de-icing and as a water softener regenerant.In addition, it provides nitrogen-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and other ancillary services; and purchases and sells phosphates, potash, and nitrogen products.The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, farmers, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts.


The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

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1.b. Last Insights on MOS

The Mosaic Company's recent performance has been driven by several factors. Despite a downgrade by Bank of America to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' due to margin pressures in the phosphate fertilizer market, the company's Brazil business grew EBITDA by 190% in Q3 2025. Institutional investors such as Merit Financial Group LLC, Colrain Capital LLC, and Bank of New York Mellon Corp have increased their stakes in the company. Additionally, Mosaic's rare earths bet could potentially revalue the stock. The company's low forward P/E of 15.67 and 3.34% dividend yield also make it attractive.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Mosaic's 2025 Earnings: A Year of Challenges and Recovery

Mosaic reported revenues that were impacted by the weak phosphate demand in the United States during the fourth quarter. The company's EPS came in at $0.22, missing estimates of $0.48. The financial performance was affected by significant market volatility, with inventory builds in both finished products and raw materials weighing on cash flow for much of the year. The impact was significant, with working capital reducing cash flow by $960 million for the year and contributing to an $829 million increase in net debt.

Publication Date: Feb -26

📋 Highlights
  • Phosphate Production Recovery: Anticipated 7+ million tonnes in 2026, with Florida and Miski Mayo achieving record outputs in 2025.
  • Potash Output Growth: Expected 9 million tonnes in 2026, driven by full Esterhazy rates and HydroFloat ramp-up, matching 2025 levels post-Carlsbad transaction.
  • Cash Flow Improvement: Projected $300–500 million working capital release in 2026, reversing 2025’s $960 million cash outflow from inventory builds.
  • Cost Efficiency: Conversion costs reduced to $112/tonne in 2025, targeting below $100/tonne, with $500M capex allocated to waste projects in 2026.
  • Debt Reduction Focus: Prioritizing net debt reduction in 2026, aiming for free cash flow post-CapEx, after a $829 million debt increase in 2025.

Operational Performance

The company's phosphate production is expected to improve in 2026, with all facilities, except New Wales, already operating at or above an 80% operating factor. The company aims to achieve a 7-plus million tonne production guidance for 2026. In potash, the company is back at full operating rates at Esterhazy, and the HydroFloat project is ramping up, with expectations of record production in 2026. As Bruce Bodine stated, "we are on track to improve phosphate production performance, and we have posted consistently good potash production throughout 2025."

Cost Management and Capital Allocation

Mosaic is maintaining disciplined cost management through all market conditions. The company's conversion costs have declined to $112 per tonne, and it remains confident in its ultimate objective of getting below $100 conversion cost. Capital expenditures are expected to be higher in 2026 than in 2025, driven primarily by required investment in new gyp stacks at multiple sites. The company expects to generate free cash flow after CapEx and other cash spend above the minimum dividend in 2026, allowing it to prioritize debt reduction and subsequently pave the way to resume extraordinary returns to shareholders.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/E Ratio of 6.51 and an EV/EBITDA of 3.1, the market seems to have priced in the challenges faced by the company. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio stands at 0.17, indicating a manageable debt burden. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -0.7%. The company's guidance is based on the last three months of production, indicating potential upside. As the company navigates the challenges in the phosphate and potash markets, its focus on cost management and capital allocation will be crucial in driving future growth.

Market Dynamics

The DAP price in North America has remained stable due to farm affordability issues, while the international market has seen price increases over the last five weeks. The company's phosphate rock inventory is higher due to the lower production in the first half of 2025, but with increased production rates, it expects to release around $170-180 million of excess rock inventory. The market dynamics will continue to play a crucial role in shaping Mosaic's performance in 2026.

3. NewsRoom

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Reasons Why You Should Retain MOS Stock in Your Portfolio Now

13:50

Source: zacks.com

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Wall Street Cuts Mosaic Company Again: UBS Slashes Target to $27

Mar -26

Source: 247wallst.com

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Here Are Thursday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Adobe, Airbnb, ARM Holdings, Bank of America, CAVA Group, Robinhood Markets, Spotify, and More

Mar -26

Source: 247wallst.com

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MOS Trades at 14x Earnings While Its Brazil Business Just Grew EBITDA 190% In Q3 2025

Mar -24

Source: 247wallst.com

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Lloyds Extends Multi-Year Partnership with Behavox's Mosaic Platform

Mar -24

Source: businesswire.com

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Super Micro Computer, Micron Technology And More: 5 Stocks Investors Couldn't Stop Buzzing About This Week

Mar -21

Source: feeds.benzinga.com

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Traders Buy Large Volume of Call Options on Mosaic (NYSE:MOS)

Mar -21

Source: defenseworld.net

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Mosaic downgraded by Bank of America amid margin pressures

Mar -20

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.82%)

6. Segments

Mosaic Fertilizantes

Expected Growth: 6%

Mosaic Fertilizantes' 6% growth driven by increasing global demand for fertilizers, driven by population growth and rising food demand. Strong agricultural fundamentals in Brazil, its largest market, and growing adoption of precision agriculture practices also contribute to growth. Additionally, Mosaic's cost savings initiatives and strategic acquisitions enhance its competitive position.

Phosphates

Expected Growth: 5%

The 5% growth of Phosphates from The Mosaic Company is driven by increasing global demand for fertilizers, particularly in Latin America and Asia, coupled with the company's cost-cutting initiatives and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the growing trend of sustainable agriculture and rising crop prices are expected to boost phosphate sales.

Potash

Expected Growth: 7%

Strong demand from Asian markets, particularly China and India, drives Potash growth. Increased use of fertilizers in Latin America and Africa also contributes. Mosaic's expansion in Saskatchewan and its cost-reduction initiatives further support growth. Additionally, the company's strategic partnerships and acquisitions enhance its market position, leading to a 7% growth rate.

Corporate, Eliminations and Other

Expected Growth: 4%

The Mosaic Company's 4% growth is driven by Corporate's cost savings initiatives, Eliminations' improved intersegment pricing, and Other's increased sales of ammonia and Estermax. Additionally, Corporate's focus on operational efficiency and Eliminations' reduction of unprofitable business lines contribute to the growth. Other's expansion into new markets and products also supports the growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Phosphates

Mosaic's phosphates are used to produce fertilizers, animal feed, and other products that help farmers grow healthy crops and raise healthy livestock.

Potash

Mosaic's potash is used to produce fertilizers that help farmers grow healthy crops and improve crop yields.

Mosaic's Micronutrients

Mosaic's micronutrients are used to produce fertilizers that provide essential nutrients to crops, improving crop health and yields.

Animal Feed Ingredients

Mosaic's animal feed ingredients are used to produce animal feed that helps farmers raise healthy livestock.

Industrial Products

Mosaic's industrial products are used in a variety of applications, including water treatment, paper manufacturing, and construction materials.

8. The Mosaic Company's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for The Mosaic Company is medium due to the availability of alternative fertilizers and crop nutrients. While there are some substitutes available, they may not offer the same level of quality or effectiveness as Mosaic's products.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for The Mosaic Company is low due to the company's strong market position and the lack of concentration among its customer base. Farmers and agricultural companies rely heavily on Mosaic's products, giving the company significant pricing power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for The Mosaic Company is medium due to the availability of raw materials and the company's diversified supply chain. While suppliers may have some bargaining power, Mosaic's scale and vertical integration mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for The Mosaic Company is low due to the significant barriers to entry in the fertilizer and crop nutrient industry. New entrants would need to invest heavily in research and development, manufacturing, and distribution, making it difficult for them to compete with established players like Mosaic.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for The Mosaic Company is high due to the competitive nature of the fertilizer and crop nutrient industry. Mosaic faces intense competition from other major players, and the company must continually innovate and improve its products and services to maintain its market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 24.53%
Debt Cost 5.46%
Equity Weight 75.47%
Equity Cost 11.49%
WACC 10.01%
Leverage 32.50%

11. Quality Control: The Mosaic Company passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
NewMarket

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 4.5

Growth: 7.2

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
CF Industries

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Mosaic

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 9.1

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Steel Dynamics

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 3.5

Growth: 7.1

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Scotts Miracle-Gro

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
FMC

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 9.1

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

26.54$

Current Price

26.54$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows