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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide.It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, agricultural commodities, energy, and metals, as well as fixed income products.The company also provides clearing house services, including clearing, settling, and guaranteeing futures and options contracts, and cleared swaps products traded through its exchanges; and trade processing and risk mitigation services.


In addition, the company offers a range of market data services, including real-time and historical data services.It serves professional traders, financial institutions, institutional and individual investors, corporations, manufacturers, producers, governments, and central banks.The company was formerly known as Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc.


and changed its name to CME Group Inc.in July 2007.CME Group Inc.


was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

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1.b. Last Insights on CME

CME Group Inc.'s recent performance is driven by positive momentum, with the stock trading above its 50- and 200-day SMAs. Analysts see a $294 target and modest upside backed by strong cash flow. Several institutional investors have increased their stakes, including Commerzbank Aktiengesellschaft FI, Elevate Capital Advisors LLC, and Campbell & CO Investment Adviser LLC. Additionally, the company is expected to report strong Q4 performance, with Wall Street estimates indicating a beat. CME Group's solid global presence and compelling product portfolio also support growth.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. CME Group's 2025 Earnings: A Record-Breaking Year

CME Group delivered a strong financial performance in 2025, with revenue growing 6% to $6.5 billion, driven by a 6% increase in average daily volume to 28.1 million contracts. Adjusted net income was $4.1 billion, resulting in 9% adjusted earnings per share growth for the year. In the fourth quarter, revenue was $1.65 billion, an 8% increase from Q4 2024, with adjusted diluted earnings per share coming in at $2.77, 10% higher than Q4 2024. The actual EPS was slightly higher than estimates of $2.75.

Publication Date: 07:51

📋 Highlights
  • Record Daily Volume Growth:: Average daily volume surged 6% to 28.1 million contracts in 2025, driven by broad-based gains across major asset classes.
  • International Business Expansion:: International contracts averaged 8.4 million daily in 2025, marking an 8% increase from 2024.
  • Margin Savings Surge:: Average daily margin savings hit $80 billion in 2025, up $20 billion from the prior year.
  • Financial Performance:: Revenue grew 6% to $6.5 billion in 2025, with adjusted net income at $4.1 billion and 9% EPS growth.
  • Data Business Growth:: Q4 data revenue rose 15% to $208 million, fueled by new user expansion (50% of growth) and cloud-based delivery models.

Business Performance

The growth was broad-based across interest rate, energy, metals, agricultural, and crypto complexes, with international business setting a record, averaging 8.4 million contracts per day, up 8% from 2024. The company also delivered unmatched capital efficiencies for customers, with average daily margin savings reaching $80 billion across all six asset classes, an increase of approximately $20 billion over the past year.

Valuation Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 26.88 and a P/S Ratio of 16.67, CME Group's valuation appears to be reflecting its strong growth prospects. The company's ROE of 14.48% and a Dividend Yield of 1.65% also indicate a healthy return on equity and a relatively stable dividend income stream.

Guidance and Outlook

For 2026, CME Group expects total adjusted operating expenses, excluding license fees, to be approximately $1.695 billion. The company also expects to repurchase shares over time using the remaining Austro proceeds. Transaction fee changes, effective April 1, along with market data fee changes and incentive program revisions, are expected to increase total revenue by approximately 1% to 1.5% on similar activity to 2025. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 6.2%.

New Initiatives and Innovations

CME Group is exploring new product development, including financial and company-specific KPIs, and is focused on getting new users into risk-based contracts. The company is also working on an initiative with Google to roll out tokenized cash this year and is being cautious with tokenized margin, considering only tokens from systemically important financial institutions.

Cloud Migration and Technology

CME Group's Google Cloud migration is on track, with non-ultra-low latency migration to be completed early this year and ultra-low latency markets to be available for testing in 2027. The company spent $29 million on cloud-related expenses in Q4 and $100 million for the year, which is built into its overall guidance.

3. NewsRoom

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CME Group's Strength Is Clear, But The Stock Looks Fully Valued

Feb -08

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Thrivent Financial for Lutherans Lowers Holdings in CME Group Inc. $CME

Feb -08

Source: defenseworld.net

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5 Securities & Exchanges Stocks to Watch Amid Increased Volatility

Feb -06

Source: zacks.com

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Ashton Thomas Private Wealth LLC Acquires 5,855 Shares of CME Group Inc. $CME

Feb -06

Source: defenseworld.net

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Envestnet Asset Management Inc. Has $223.07 Million Stake in CME Group Inc. $CME

Feb -06

Source: defenseworld.net

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CME Group: Quality Shines Through, But It Doesn't Mean To Buy

Feb -06

Source: seekingalpha.com

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CME Group Inc (CME) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenues and Strategic Expansions Amid Market Challenges

Feb -04

Source: gurufocus.com

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Record Trading Boosts This Financial Firm As Prediction Markets Tempt Exchanges

Feb -04

Source: investors.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.10%)

6. Segments

Unclassified Services

Expected Growth: 4.0%

The expected growth rate is slightly below the global revenue growth hypothesis of 4.1% due to potential regulatory headwinds and market volatility. However, the segment is likely to benefit from increasing demand for derivatives and post-trade services, driven by the need for risk management and hedging. The growth rate is expected to be stable, reflecting the segment's diversified revenue streams and critical role in the financial markets. The defensive growth figure is justified by the segment's exposure to market fluctuations.

7. Detailed Products

Futures

A futures contract is a standardized agreement to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price on a specific date.

Options

An option is a contract that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price.

Swaps

A swap is a derivative in which two parties agree to exchange a series of cash flows over time based on underlying assets or indices.

FX Products

FX products allow customers to trade currencies and manage foreign exchange risk.

Equity Index Products

Equity index products allow customers to trade on the performance of a particular stock market index.

Agricultural Products

Agricultural products allow customers to trade on the price of agricultural commodities such as corn, soybeans, and wheat.

Energy Products

Energy products allow customers to trade on the price of energy commodities such as crude oil, natural gas, and electricity.

Metal Products

Metal products allow customers to trade on the price of metals such as gold, silver, and copper.

Interest Rate Products

Interest rate products allow customers to trade on the direction of interest rates.

8. CME Group Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

CME Group Inc. operates in a highly regulated industry, and the threat of substitutes is moderate. While there are some alternative exchanges and trading platforms, CME's strong brand and established customer base mitigate the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

CME Group Inc. has a diverse customer base, including institutional investors, hedge funds, and individual traders. While customers have some bargaining power, CME's strong brand and market position limit their ability to negotiate prices.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

CME Group Inc. has a strong market position and is not heavily dependent on a single supplier. The company's suppliers have limited bargaining power, and CME is able to negotiate favorable terms.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants in the exchange industry is low due to high barriers to entry, including regulatory hurdles and significant capital requirements. CME Group Inc. has a strong market position and is well-positioned to defend its market share.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The exchange industry is highly competitive, with several established players competing for market share. CME Group Inc. faces intense rivalry from other exchanges, including the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and the NASDAQ OMX Group.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 11.52%
Debt Cost 5.28%
Equity Weight 88.48%
Equity Cost 6.39%
WACC 6.26%
Leverage 13.02%

11. Quality Control: CME Group Inc. passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
CME Group

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 2.3

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 8.6

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Truist

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Nasdaq

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 1.8

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
ICE

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 2.5

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
MSCI

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 2.8

Growth: 7.9

Quality: 7.5

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
S&P Global

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 1.6

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 8.1

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

302.27$

Current Price

302.27$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows