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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates regulated exchanges, clearing houses, and listings venues for commodity, financial, fixed income, and equity markets in the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Singapore, Israel, and Canada.It operates through three segments: Exchanges, Fixed Income and Data Services, and Mortgage Technology.The company operates marketplaces for listing, trading, and clearing an array of derivatives contracts and financial securities, such as commodities, interest rates, foreign exchange, and equities, as well as corporate and exchange-traded funds; trading venues, including 13 regulated exchanges and 6 clearing houses; and offers futures and options products for energy, agricultural and metals, financial, cash equities and equity, over-the-counter, and other markets, as well as listings and data and connectivity services.


It also provides fixed income data and analytic, fixed income execution, CDS clearing, and other multi-asset class data and network services.In addition, the company offers proprietary and comprehensive mortgage origination platform, which serves residential mortgage loans; closing solutions that provides customers connectivity to the mortgage supply chain and facilitates the secure exchange of information; data and analytics services; and Data as a Service for lenders to access data and origination information.Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.


was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

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1.b. Last Insights on ICE

Intercontinental Exchange's recent performance faced challenges due to rising expenses, which may weigh on near-term margins. A raid by ICE at a Hyundai plant in the US sparked shock in South Korea, potentially putting billions in investments at risk. Additionally, South Korean companies with US investments are feeling nervous after the detention of over 300 South Korean citizens at the Hyundai-LG battery plant. Despite strong Q2 earnings and revenue beats, concerns surrounding expenses and geopolitical tensions may impact the company's short-term prospects.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. ICE's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) reported a robust third quarter 2025, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.71, surpassing estimates of $1.6. Net revenues totaled $2.4 billion, driven by a 5% increase in recurring revenue, fueled by a 9% rise in exchange data and a 7% uplift in fixed income and data services. Adjusted operating expenses were $981 million, and the company returned $674 million to shareholders during the quarter.

Publication Date: Nov -01

📋 Highlights
  • Record Adjusted EPS and Revenues:: Q3 adjusted earnings per share rose to $1.71 (+10% YoY), with net revenues hitting $2.4 billion (+5% recurring revenue growth).<br>
  • Exchange Segment Growth:: Exchange net revenues reached $1.3 billion, driven by 16% YoY open interest surge and 9% rise in exchange data services.<br>
  • AI-Driven Operational Efficiency:: AI achieved 95% accuracy in document validation, accelerated tech re-platforming (3–4 years vs. 7 years), and boosted mortgage servicing cost savings by 20–30%.<br>
  • Polymarket Investment and Blockchain Adoption:: ICE invested $1 billion in Polymarket via CP issuance, leveraging blockchain for non-intermediated settlements, and plans up to $1 billion additional funding.<br>
  • Fixed Income & Data Services Record Revenues:: Generated $618 million in Q3 (+5% YoY), with $311 million in fixed income data/analytics and 7% recurring revenue growth.<br>

Segment-wise Performance

The Exchange segment reported net revenues of $1.3 billion, with transaction revenues of $876 million. Open interest across futures and options surged 16% year-over-year. The Fixed Income and Data Services segment achieved record revenues of $618 million, with recurring revenue growing 7% year-over-year. The Mortgage Technology segment saw revenues of $528 million, up 4% year-over-year, driven by data and analytics business and MSP within servicing.

AI-driven Innovation

ICE is leveraging AI to drive efficiency and deliver enhanced analytical insights, as highlighted by Benjamin Jackson: "We're using AI to accelerate our existing automation journey, building and implementing tools to drive efficiency and deliver enhanced analytical insights." The company is applying AI in various areas, including customer service, data gathering, and surveillance.

Valuation and Outlook

ICE's stock is trading at a P/E Ratio of 26.46 and an EV/EBITDA of 15.68, indicating a premium valuation. Analysts estimate revenue growth of 6.0% next year. With a strong track record of innovation and a diversified business model, ICE is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging trends. The company's focus on AI-driven innovation and its investment in Polymarket are expected to drive future growth.

Investment in Polymarket

ICE's investment in Polymarket is expected to accelerate the latter's acceptance into the traditional financial system. The partnership will enable ICE to distribute Polymarket's event-driven data, providing real-time probabilities on events like elections and economic indicators. This move is seen as a strategic step into the retail space and a potential game-changer in traditional finance.

3. NewsRoom

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Dow Jones Today: Major Stock Indexes Little Changed; Weekly Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Fall; Inflation Data on Tap Tomorrow

Dec -04

Source: investopedia.com

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Prediction-Markets Data Is On CNN Now. Expect to See It Just About Everywhere Soon

Dec -04

Source: investopedia.com

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Intercontinental Exchange Reports November Statistics

Dec -03

Source: businesswire.com

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Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) Presents at UBS Global Technology and AI Conference 2025 Transcript

Dec -02

Source: seekingalpha.com

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NYSE Texas Reaches Milestone of 100 Dual Listings

Dec -01

Source: businesswire.com

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InnovestX Securities Selects ICE to Enhance Pricing, Trading and Risk Analytics, Powering a More Efficient and Scalable Investment Platform

Dec -01

Source: businesswire.com

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ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Increased Refinance Activity Drives Mortgage Prepayments to 3.5-Year High

Nov -25

Source: businesswire.com

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ICE Stock Pulls Back To Support - Smart Entry?

Nov -20

Source: forbes.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.81%)

6. Segments

Exchanges Segment

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Increasing adoption of derivatives, growth in emerging markets, and rising demand for risk management solutions drive the growth of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.’s Exchanges business, which operates regulated marketplaces for futures and equities exchanges.

Fixed Income and Data Services Segment

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Growing demand for fixed income data and analytics, coupled with Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.’s proprietary indices and execution capabilities, drives market growth.

Mortgage Technology Segment

Expected Growth: 10.5%

Strong demand for ICE’s exchange-traded derivatives and fixed income & credit trading platforms, driven by increasing adoption of derivatives for risk management and investment purposes.

7. Detailed Products

ICE Futures

A leading global futures exchange offering a range of futures contracts on energy, agricultural, metals, and financial products.

ICE Clear US

A leading central counterparty (CCP) providing clearing services for futures, options, and OTC markets.

ICE Bonds

A leading electronic platform for fixed income securities, offering real-time prices and trading capabilities.

ICE Data Services

A comprehensive data and analytics platform providing real-time and historical data, news, and analytics.

ICE Benchmark Administration

A leading administrator of financial benchmarks, including LIBOR and others.

NYSE

A leading global stock exchange, offering listings, trading, and market data services.

NYSE American

A fully electronic exchange offering trading in equities, options, and ETFs.

NYSE Arca

A leading electronic exchange offering trading in ETFs, options, and equities.

NYSE National

A fully electronic exchange offering trading in equities and options.

8. Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. is medium due to the presence of alternative platforms and products that can substitute for its services.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. is low due to the company's strong brand reputation and the lack of alternative options for customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers and the company's ability to negotiate prices.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. is high due to the low barriers to entry and the increasing trend of fintech companies entering the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. is high due to the presence of strong competitors and the company's need to constantly innovate and improve its services to stay competitive.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 47.12%
Debt Cost 4.19%
Equity Weight 52.88%
Equity Cost 9.09%
WACC 6.78%
Leverage 89.09%

11. Quality Control: Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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CME Group

A-Score: 7.1/10

Value: 2.0

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 8.5

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Capital One

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 4.4

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Nasdaq

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 2.2

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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ICE

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 2.7

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
MSCI

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 2.8

Growth: 7.9

Quality: 7.6

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
S&P Global

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 1.5

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 8.0

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

159.11$

Current Price

159.11$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows