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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Cedar Fair, L.P. owns and operates amusement and water parks, and complementary resort facilities in the United States and Canada.Its amusement parks include Cedar Point located on Lake Erie between Cleveland and Toledo in Sandusky, Ohio; Knott's Berry Farm near Los Angeles, California; Canada's Wonderland near Toronto, Ontario; Kings Island near Cincinnati, Ohio; Carowinds in Charlotte, North Carolina; Kings Dominion situated near Richmond, Virginia; California's Great America located in Santa Clara, California; Dorney Park in Pennsylvania; Worlds of Fun located in Kansas City, Missouri; Valleyfair situated near Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota; Michigan's Adventure situated near Muskegon, Michigan; Schlitterbahn Waterpark & Resort New Braunfels in New Braunfels, Texas; and Schlitterbahn Waterpark Galveston in Galveston, Texas.The company also owns and operates the Castaway Bay Indoor Waterpark Resort, Hotel Breakers, Cedar Point's Express Hotel, and Sawmill Creek Resort.


As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 13 amusement parks.The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Sandusky, Ohio.

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1.b. Last Insights on FUN

Cedar Fair, L.P. faces challenges similar to its peer Six Flags Entertainment Corporation. Weak Q3 sales and high debt have raised concerns. An activist investor has taken a stake, pushing for a rebound. However, analysts have slashed their forecasts due to disappointing results. The company's uncertain management and high debt have sparked a cautionary tale. A securities fraud investigation has been launched, and shareholders with large losses are urged to contact law firms. Geode Capital Management LLC has increased its stake, but this positive development is overshadowed by negative factors.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Six Flags' Q3 Earnings: A Mixed Bag

Six Flags reported third-quarter revenues of $1.32 billion on attendance of 21.1 million guests, with modified EBITDA of approximately $580 million and adjusted EBITDA of $550 million. The company's EPS came in at $3.28, significantly beating estimates of $2.24. The outperformance was largely driven by the company's top-performing parks, which generated incremental modified EBITDA on flat attendance. However, underperforming parks saw declining EBITDA, highlighting the challenges faced by the company in turning around these assets.

Publication Date: Nov -10

📋 Highlights
  • Q3 EBITDA Performance: Modified EBITDA reached $580 million, adjusted EBITDA at $550 million, driven by 21.1 million attendees and $1.32 billion in revenue.
  • Attendance Growth: Year-over-year attendance increased 1%, despite weaker-than-expected September demand impacting EBITDA.
  • Underperforming Parks: Parks representing 30% of 2025 EBITDA are under review, with some EBITDA-negative locations facing divestment or improvement strategies.
  • 2025 Full-Year Outlook: Adjusted EBITDA guidance set at $780–$805 million, with cautious November-December attendance expectations (flat to down mid-single digits).

Operational Insights

The company's operational performance was mixed, with attendance growing 1% year-over-year, but softer-than-expected demand in September impacting third-quarter EBITDA. According to Brian Witherow, the company faced some missteps, including ineffective advertising programs and pricing changes that may have moved too fast and too far. The company is reevaluating its marketing approach, focusing on fundamentals and improving the pacing of marketing spend to align with seasonal demand curves.

Underperforming Parks

Underperforming parks represent 30% of EBITDA year-to-date in 2025, with some parks being EBITDA negative. The company is reevaluating each park's current status, potential, and effort to get them up to par. Six Flags is prioritizing financial flexibility and improving free cash flow generation through organic growth and potential asset sales. The company remains comfortably within its covenant requirements and has a solid regional amusement park business.

Valuation

With a P/E Ratio of -1.02 and an EV/EBITDA of -2.09, the market is pricing in significant challenges for the company. However, the company's efforts to turn around underperforming parks and improve operational efficiency could potentially drive growth. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 5.7%, which could provide a positive catalyst for the stock.

Outlook

Six Flags has updated its full-year outlook, expecting to deliver adjusted EBITDA of $780 million to $805 million. The company is reassessing its marketing approach and focusing on improving the pacing of marketing spend to align with seasonal demand curves. With a solid regional amusement park business and a clear understanding of strategic focus and investment, the company is well-positioned to drive consistency, stability, and long-term value creation.

3. NewsRoom

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LRN INVESTOR ALERT: Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman LLC Announces that Stride, Inc. Investors with Substantial Losses Have Opportunity to Lead Class Action Lawsuit

Dec -04

Source: globenewswire.com

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Six Flags Entertainment Corporation (FUN) Shareholders Who Lost Money Have Opportunity to Lead Securities Fraud Lawsuit

Dec -04

Source: prnewswire.com

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Six Flags Shareholder Alert: ClaimsFiler Reminds Investors With Losses In Excess Of $100,000 Of Lead Plaintiff Deadline In Class Action Lawsuits Against Six Flags Entertainment Corporation - FUN

Dec -04

Source: globenewswire.com

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Six Flags Entertainment Corporation Sued for Securities Law Violations - Contact the DJS Law Group to Discuss Your Rights - FUN

Dec -04

Source: globenewswire.com

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Deadline Alert: Six Flags Entertainment Corporation (FUN) Shareholders Who Lost Money Urged To Contact Glancy Prongay & Murray LLP About Securities Fraud Lawsuit

Dec -03

Source: globenewswire.com

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SHAREHOLDER ALERT: Bernstein Liebhard LLP Announces A Securities Fraud Class Action Lawsuit Has Been Filed Against Six Flags Entertainment Corporation (NYSE: FUN)

Dec -03

Source: globenewswire.com

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Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP Announces that Six Flags Entertainment Corporation f/k/a CopperSteel HoldCo, Inc. (FUN) Investors with Substantial Losses Have Opportunity to Lead Investor Class Action Lawsuit

Dec -03

Source: prnewswire.com

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NYSE: FUN INVESTOR ALERT: Berger Montague Advises Six Flags Entertainment Corp. (NYSE: FUN) Investors of a January 5, 2026 Deadline

Dec -03

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.80%)

6. Segments

Admissions

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Cedar Fair's 4.83% growth in admissions is driven by increased consumer spending on experiential activities, successful implementation of dynamic pricing strategies, and investments in new attractions and amenities. Additionally, the company's focus on enhancing the guest experience through technology and marketing initiatives has contributed to the growth.

Food, Merchandise and Games

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Cedar Fair's 4.83% growth in Food, Merchandise, and Games is driven by increased in-park spending, strategic pricing initiatives, and enhanced guest experiences. Additionally, investments in new attractions and technologies, such as mobile ordering and cashless payments, have improved operational efficiency and convenience, leading to higher sales and profitability.

Accommodations, Extra-charge Products and Other

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Cedar Fair's 4.65% growth is driven by Accommodations (increased hotel bookings and premium pricing), Extra-charge Products (upselling of Fast Lane and VIP experiences), and Other (growth in sponsorship and advertising revenue, as well as increased sales of season passes and all-season dining plans).

7. Detailed Products

Amusement Park Admission

General admission tickets to Cedar Fair's amusement parks, including Cedar Point, Knott's Berry Farm, and Kings Island.

Season Passes

Annual passes that grant access to Cedar Fair's amusement parks for the entire operating season.

Food and Beverage

Various dining options and treats available within Cedar Fair's amusement parks, such as burgers, hot dogs, and funnel cakes.

Games and Merchandise

Arcade games, skill games, and souvenir shops offering Cedar Fair-themed merchandise, such as t-shirts and toys.

Accommodations

On-site hotels, resorts, and campgrounds offering convenient lodging options for guests visiting Cedar Fair's amusement parks.

Special Events

Seasonal events and festivals, such as Halloween-themed Haunt and winter festivities like WinterFest.

Group Outings

Customizable packages for groups, including corporate events, birthday parties, and youth groups.

8. Cedar Fair, L.P.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Cedar Fair, L.P. operates in a niche market with a unique product offering, which reduces the threat of substitutes. However, the rise of virtual and augmented reality experiences could potentially substitute traditional theme park experiences.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Cedar Fair, L.P. operates in a market with a high level of customer loyalty, and customers have limited bargaining power due to the unique nature of the company's products and services.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Cedar Fair, L.P. relies on a diverse range of suppliers for goods and services, which reduces the bargaining power of individual suppliers. However, the company may still be vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and price increases.

Threat Of New Entrants

The theme park industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles, which reduces the threat of new entrants.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The theme park industry is highly competitive, with several major players competing for market share. Cedar Fair, L.P. faces intense rivalry from companies such as Disney, Universal, and Six Flags.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 134.59%
Debt Cost 8.32%
Equity Weight -34.59%
Equity Cost 11.06%
WACC 7.37%
Leverage -389.08%

11. Quality Control: Cedar Fair, L.P. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
United Parks & Resorts

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 6.9

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Acushnet

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
YETI

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 5.1

Growth: 8.1

Quality: 7.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Mattel

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Six Flags

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 7.5

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Cedar Fair

A-Score: 2.8/10

Value: 7.5

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 2.1

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

15.47$

Current Price

15.47$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows