Cedar Fair, L.P. (FUN) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Cedar Fair, L.P. owns and operates amusement and water parks, and complementary resort facilities in the United States and Canada.Its amusement parks include Cedar Point located on Lake Erie between Cleveland and Toledo in Sandusky, Ohio; Knott's Berry Farm near Los Angeles, California; Canada's Wonderland near Toronto, Ontario; Kings Island near Cincinnati, Ohio; Carowinds in Charlotte, North Carolina; Kings Dominion situated near Richmond, Virginia; California's Great America located in Santa Clara, California; Dorney Park in Pennsylvania; Worlds of Fun located in Kansas City, Missouri; Valleyfair situated near Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota; Michigan's Adventure situated near Muskegon, Michigan; Schlitterbahn Waterpark & Resort New Braunfels in New Braunfels, Texas; and Schlitterbahn Waterpark Galveston in Galveston, Texas.The company also owns and operates the Castaway Bay Indoor Waterpark Resort, Hotel Breakers, Cedar Point's Express Hotel, and Sawmill Creek Resort.

As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 13 amusement parks.The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Sandusky, Ohio.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on FUN

Breaking News: Cedar Fair LP has no recent earnings release or news available. However Six Flags Entertainment Corporation announced the debut of Speedway Stunt Coaster at Six Flags México. This development may impact the industry. Analysts at Stifel upgraded Cedar Fair to a buy. Analysts at Janney Montgomery upgraded to a buy.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	18.06
Change Percentage	-2.85%
Open	18.8
Previous Close	18.59
Market Cap ( Millions)	1833
Volume	1742735
Year High	48.8
Year Low	12.51
M A 50	15.92
M A 200	24.25

FCF Yield	-9.21%
Dividend Yield	0.00%
ROE	-111.49%
Debt / Equity	853.17%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	-677.28%
Price To Book	2.96
Price Earnings Ratio	-1.04
Price To FCF	-10.86
Price To sales	0.58
EV / EBITDA	-9.17

2. Six Flags' Q3 Earnings: A Mixed Bag

Six Flags reported third-quarter revenues of $1.32 billion on attendance of 21.1 million guests, with modified EBITDA of approximately $580 million and adjusted EBITDA of $550 million. The company's EPS came in at $3.28, significantly beating estimates of $2.24. The outperformance was largely driven by the company's top-performing parks, which generated incremental modified EBITDA on flat attendance. However, underperforming parks saw declining EBITDA, highlighting the challenges faced by the company in turning around these assets.

Publication Date: Nov -10

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Q3 EBITDA Performance:
                                                Modified EBITDA reached $580 million, adjusted EBITDA at $550 million, driven by 21.1 million attendees and $1.32 billion in revenue.
Attendance Growth:
                                                Year-over-year attendance increased 1%, despite weaker-than-expected September demand impacting EBITDA.
Underperforming Parks:
                                                Parks representing 30% of 2025 EBITDA are under review, with some EBITDA-negative locations facing divestment or improvement strategies.
2025 Full-Year Outlook:
                                                Adjusted EBITDA guidance set at $780–$805 million, with cautious November-December attendance expectations (flat to down mid-single digits).

                                

Operational Insights

The company's operational performance was mixed, with attendance growing 1% year-over-year, but softer-than-expected demand in September impacting third-quarter EBITDA. According to Brian Witherow, the company faced some missteps, including ineffective advertising programs and pricing changes that may have moved too fast and too far. The company is reevaluating its marketing approach, focusing on fundamentals and improving the pacing of marketing spend to align with seasonal demand curves.

Underperforming Parks

Underperforming parks represent 30% of EBITDA year-to-date in 2025, with some parks being EBITDA negative. The company is reevaluating each park's current status, potential, and effort to get them up to par. Six Flags is prioritizing financial flexibility and improving free cash flow generation through organic growth and potential asset sales. The company remains comfortably within its covenant requirements and has a solid regional amusement park business.

Valuation

With a P/E Ratio of -1.02 and an EV/EBITDA of -2.09, the market is pricing in significant challenges for the company. However, the company's efforts to turn around underperforming parks and improve operational efficiency could potentially drive growth. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 5.7%, which could provide a positive catalyst for the stock.

Outlook

Six Flags has updated its full-year outlook, expecting to deliver adjusted EBITDA of $780 million to $805 million. The company is reassessing its marketing approach and focusing on improving the pacing of marketing spend to align with seasonal demand curves. With a solid regional amusement park business and a clear understanding of strategic focus and investment, the company is well-positioned to drive consistency, stability, and long-term value creation.

3. NewsRoom

SPEEDWAY STUNT COASTER NOW OPEN AT SIX FLAGS MÉXICO

Feb -06

Source: prnewswire.com

Here Are Thursday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: CAVA Group, DigitalOcean, Fox Corp, Jack Henry, Microsoft, Qualcomm, Snap, Zoom Communications, and More

Feb -05

Source: 247wallst.com

Six Flags Announces Time Change for Its Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Conference Call

Jan -21

Source: businesswire.com

Six Flags Stock: Is the Theme Park Operator a Thrill Ride for Long-Term Investors?

Jan -19

Source: fool.com

Six Flags vs. Royal Caribbean: Which Leisure Stock Looks More Compelling for the Next Decade?

Jan -12

Source: fool.com

Six Flags Announces Pricing of $1.0 Billion of 8.625% Senior Notes Due 2032

Jan -07

Source: businesswire.com

Six Flags Announces Private Offering of $1.0 Billion of Senior Notes and Redemptions of 2027 Notes

Jan -06

Source: businesswire.com

Flight Centre (OTCMKTS:FGETF) vs. Six Flags Entertainment (NYSE:FUN) Critical Comparison

Jan -06

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.80%)

6. Segments

Admissions

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Cedar Fair's 4.83% growth in admissions is driven by increased consumer spending on experiential activities, successful implementation of dynamic pricing strategies, and investments in new attractions and amenities. Additionally, the company's focus on enhancing the guest experience through technology and marketing initiatives has contributed to the growth.

Food, Merchandise and Games

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Cedar Fair's 4.83% growth in Food, Merchandise, and Games is driven by increased in-park spending, strategic pricing initiatives, and enhanced guest experiences. Additionally, investments in new attractions and technologies, such as mobile ordering and cashless payments, have improved operational efficiency and convenience, leading to higher sales and profitability.

Accommodations, Extra-charge Products and Other

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Cedar Fair's 4.65% growth is driven by Accommodations (increased hotel bookings and premium pricing), Extra-charge Products (upselling of Fast Lane and VIP experiences), and Other (growth in sponsorship and advertising revenue, as well as increased sales of season passes and all-season dining plans).

7. Detailed Products

Amusement Park Admission

General admission tickets to Cedar Fair's amusement parks, including Cedar Point, Knott's Berry Farm, and Kings Island.

Season Passes

Annual passes that grant access to Cedar Fair's amusement parks for the entire operating season.

Food and Beverage

Various dining options and treats available within Cedar Fair's amusement parks, such as burgers, hot dogs, and funnel cakes.

Games and Merchandise

Arcade games, skill games, and souvenir shops offering Cedar Fair-themed merchandise, such as t-shirts and toys.

Accommodations

On-site hotels, resorts, and campgrounds offering convenient lodging options for guests visiting Cedar Fair's amusement parks.

Special Events

Seasonal events and festivals, such as Halloween-themed Haunt and winter festivities like WinterFest.

Group Outings

Customizable packages for groups, including corporate events, birthday parties, and youth groups.

8. Cedar Fair, L.P.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Cedar Fair, L.P. operates in a niche market with a unique product offering, which reduces the threat of substitutes. However, the rise of virtual and augmented reality experiences could potentially substitute traditional theme park experiences.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Cedar Fair, L.P. operates in a market with a high level of customer loyalty, and customers have limited bargaining power due to the unique nature of the company's products and services.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Cedar Fair, L.P. relies on a diverse range of suppliers for goods and services, which reduces the bargaining power of individual suppliers. However, the company may still be vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and price increases.

Threat Of New Entrants

The theme park industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles, which reduces the threat of new entrants.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The theme park industry is highly competitive, with several major players competing for market share. Cedar Fair, L.P. faces intense rivalry from companies such as Disney, Universal, and Six Flags.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	134.59%
Debt Cost	8.32%
Equity Weight	-34.59%
Equity Cost	11.06%
WACC	7.37%
Leverage	-389.08%

11. Quality Control: Cedar Fair, L.P. passed 3 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Inefficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Acushnet

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Mattel

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

YETI

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 8.0

Quality: 7.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

United Parks & Resorts

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 7.0

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Six Flags

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Cedar Fair

A-Score: 2.8/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 2.6

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

42.99%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

7.37%

Cedar Fair, L.P. - US1501851067

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on FUN

1.c. Company Highlights

Less Volatile

Higher Yield

Stable Momentum

Earnings Miss

Revenues Beats

Fairly Valued

Medium Volatility

Strong Momentum

Average Yield

Earnings Beats

Revenues Miss

Average Quality

Lower Quality

Average Growth

Lower Growth

Cheaper

Weak Momentum

2. Six Flags' Q3 Earnings: A Mixed Bag

Operational Insights

Underperforming Parks

Valuation

Outlook

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.80%)

6. Segments

Admissions

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Food, Merchandise and Games

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Accommodations, Extra-charge Products and Other

Expected Growth: 4.65%

7. Detailed Products

Amusement Park Admission

Season Passes

Food and Beverage

Games and Merchandise

Accommodations

Special Events

Group Outings

8. Cedar Fair, L.P.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Cedar Fair, L.P. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

18.06$

Current Price

18.06$

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA