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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

CoreCivic, Inc.owns and operates partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities in the United States.It operates through three segments: CoreCivic Safety, CoreCivic Community, and CoreCivic Properties.


The company provides a range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through corrections and detention management, a network of residential reentry centers to help address America's recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions.Its correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities offer rehabilitation and educational programs, including basic education, faith-based services, life skills and employment training, and substance abuse treatment.As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated 46 correctional and detention facilities, 26 residential reentry centers, and 10 properties for lease.


The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.

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1.b. Last Insights on CXW

The recent 3 months performance of CoreCivic, Inc. was negatively impacted by a lack of recent earnings releases, with the last update being the Q4 2024 financial results in February 2025. The absence of a recent earnings release may have contributed to market volatility and uncertainty. Additionally, the company's announcement of contract modifications to add capacity for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in February 2025, while positive, may not have been enough to offset the negative sentiment.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. CoreCivic's Strong Q4 2025 Earnings: A Closer Look

CoreCivic reported a strong fourth quarter 2025, with revenue from federal partners increasing 49% compared to the prior year quarter, driven by a 103.4% rise in revenue from ICE. The company's average daily population across all facilities was 56,380 individuals, up 6,178 from the year-ago quarter. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.52, beating estimates of $0.43. Revenue growth was robust, and the company's idle facilities, containing approximately 7,000 beds, are well-positioned to meet future demand. The EBITDA margin is expected to be around 18% based on the guided EBITDA of $437 million to $445 million and revenue run rate of $2.5 billion.

Publication Date: Mar -05

📋 Highlights
  • ICE Revenue Surge: ICE detention revenue jumped 103.4% YoY, driven by historical highs in population.
  • EBITDA Run Rate Growth: Annual EBITDA run rate rose $100M YoY to $450M, with Q4 EBITDA exceeding forecasts by $8.6M.
  • Pending Bed Activation: 13,000+ idle beds (7,000 in facilities, 5,000 in existing) could generate $593M revenue and $136M EBITDA at 23% margin.
  • 2026 Guidance: EBITDA forecast: $437M–$445M; diluted EPS: $1.49–$1.59; FFO/share: $2.54–$2.64 (21%–40% growth at midpoint).
  • Liquidity & Share Buybacks: $300M+ liquidity (revolving credit + $100M cash) supports capital allocation and share repurchases at 6x forward EBITDA.

Operational Highlights and Outlook

The company's activation activities are progressing, with stabilized occupancy expected in mid-2026. New awards announced in several facilities are expected to generate annual revenue of approximately $260 million once operations normalize. ICE detention populations are at historical highs, and the company has seen an increase in demand from federal partners. According to Patrick Swindle, "the pacing of additional capacity is driven by bed demand," and the company is well-positioned to respond quickly to demand. The guidance for 2026 includes EBITDA and EPS growth of 21% and 40%, respectively, at the midpoint.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 16.35 and EV/EBITDA of 8.72, the stock appears to be reasonably valued. Analysts estimate revenue growth at 5.9% for next year, which is lower than the company's guided growth rate. The company's ROE and ROIC are 8.0% and 7.34%, respectively, indicating a decent return on equity and invested capital. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 3.18, which is manageable. As the company delivers on its outlook, the value is likely to be recognized in its shares, currently trading below historical ranges.

Future Growth Drivers

The company's idle facilities and potential for new contract wins are significant growth drivers. If 13,000 beds were contracted, with an average daily revenue of $125, it would result in $593 million in incremental revenue and $136 million in incremental EBITDA, assuming a 23% margin. The company's exploration of AI in back-office efficiency, facility operations, and educational opportunities for individuals in care is also expected to drive growth. With substantial liquidity and a conservative leverage approach, the company is well-positioned to execute its strategy.

3. NewsRoom

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CoreCivic Stock Down This Past Year, but One Fund Took a $5 Million Stake Amid 26% Revenue Surge

Feb -26

Source:

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CenterBook Partners LP Decreases Stock Position in CoreCivic, Inc. $CXW

Feb -21

Source: defenseworld.net

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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -13

Source: seekingalpha.com

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$10 Million Exit: Why a Fund Would Walk Away From CoreCivic Despite a $604 Million Quarter

Feb -12

Source: fool.com

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CoreCivic Says ICE Crackdown is Boosting Sales

Feb -11

Source: wsj.com

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CoreCivic Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results

Feb -11

Source: globenewswire.com

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Nisa Investment Advisors LLC Cuts Stake in CoreCivic, Inc. $CXW

Jan -20

Source: defenseworld.net

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CoreCivic Announces 2025 Fourth Quarter Earnings Release and Conference Call Dates

Jan -06

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.56%)

6. Segments

Safety

Expected Growth: None%

None

Community

Expected Growth: None%

None

Properties

Expected Growth: None%

None

Unallocated Other

Expected Growth: None%

None

7. Detailed Products

Correctional Facilities

CoreCivic operates a network of correctional facilities that provide a safe and secure environment for inmates, while also offering rehabilitation programs and services to help reduce recidivism.

Immigration Detention Centers

CoreCivic operates immigration detention centers that provide a safe and humane environment for individuals awaiting immigration proceedings, while also offering access to legal services and resources.

Residential Reentry Centers

CoreCivic operates residential reentry centers that provide a supportive environment for individuals transitioning back into their communities, offering counseling, job training, and other rehabilitation programs.

Community Corrections

CoreCivic offers community corrections services, including electronic monitoring, day reporting, and other alternative sentencing programs, to help individuals transition back into their communities.

Government Partnerships

CoreCivic partners with government agencies to provide a range of services, including facility management, rehabilitation programs, and community corrections services.

8. CoreCivic, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for CoreCivic, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative correctional facilities and services. While there are some substitutes, they may not offer the same level of quality and security as CoreCivic's facilities.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for CoreCivic, Inc. is low due to the company's strong relationships with government agencies and the lack of alternative service providers. Customers have limited negotiating power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for CoreCivic, Inc. is medium due to the company's dependence on a few key suppliers for goods and services. While suppliers have some negotiating power, CoreCivic's size and scale mitigate this power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for CoreCivic, Inc. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the correctional facilities industry. New entrants would need significant capital and expertise to compete with CoreCivic.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for CoreCivic, Inc. is high due to the competitive nature of the correctional facilities industry. The company faces competition from other private prison operators and government-run facilities.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 42.57%
Debt Cost 8.08%
Equity Weight 57.43%
Equity Cost 8.08%
WACC 8.08%
Leverage 74.11%

11. Quality Control: CoreCivic, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Franklin BSP Realty Trust

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 6.8

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Farmland Partners

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 8.9

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Gladstone Land

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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AFC Gamma

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 7.4

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Uniti

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 5.3

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
CoreCivic

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

18.06$

Current Price

18.06$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows