Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

CoreCivic, Inc.owns and operates partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities in the United States.It operates through three segments: CoreCivic Safety, CoreCivic Community, and CoreCivic Properties.


The company provides a range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through corrections and detention management, a network of residential reentry centers to help address America's recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions.Its correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities offer rehabilitation and educational programs, including basic education, faith-based services, life skills and employment training, and substance abuse treatment.As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated 46 correctional and detention facilities, 26 residential reentry centers, and 10 properties for lease.


The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on CXW

The recent 3 months performance of CoreCivic, Inc. was negatively impacted by a lack of recent earnings releases, with the last update being the Q4 2024 financial results in February 2025. The absence of a recent earnings release may have contributed to market volatility and uncertainty. Additionally, the company's announcement of contract modifications to add capacity for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in February 2025, while positive, may not have been enough to offset the negative sentiment.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. CoreCivic's 2Q2025 Earnings: A Strong Beat on Revenue and EBITDA

CoreCivic reported a robust financial performance in 2Q2025, with total revenue increasing 9.8% year-over-year to an unspecified amount. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $103.3 million, a 23.2% increase from the prior year quarter, exceeding analyst estimates by $21 million. The company's GAAP EPS was $0.35, while FFO per share was $0.58. Excluding special items, adjusted EPS was $0.36 and normalized FFO per share was $0.59, with the actual EPS coming out at $0.59 relative to estimates at $0.43.

Publication Date: Aug -23

📋 Highlights
  • Record ICE Detention Population:: ICE detention population hit 57,861, the highest ever, driven by increased federal immigration enforcement.
  • Revenue and EBITDA Growth:: Total revenue rose 9.8% YoY to 2Q 2025, with adjusted EBITDA jumping 23.2% to $103.3M, exceeding estimates by $21M.
  • Facility Reactivation and Capacity:: Reactivated facilities (e.g., Dilley) and 30,000 available beds (including surge capacity) position CoreCivic to meet ICE’s demand for detention capacity.
  • Government Funding Impact:: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act allocated $75B to ICE, driving detention capacity needs and accelerating facility activations.
  • Capital Expenditures and Guidance:: $70M–$75M in capital spending planned for facility activations, with full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $1.07–$1.14 and EBITDA run rate exceeding $400M by Q4.

Revenue Growth Drivers

Revenue from federal partners comprised 50% of CoreCivic's total revenue in 2Q2025, with an 11% increase in revenue from federal partners, driven by a 17% increase from ICE and a 3% increase from the U.S. Marshals Service. Revenue from state partners also increased 5% from the prior year quarter. The average daily population was 54,026, up from 51,541 in 2Q2024, contributing to the revenue growth.

Operational Highlights

CoreCivic has been reactivating idle facilities, including the Dilley Immigration Processing Center, which resumed operations in 1Q2025, and expects to complete the full reactivation by the end of 3Q2025. The company has also entered into advanced negotiations to activate a fourth idle facility and has begun discussions to activate a fifth. As Damon Hininger mentioned, "We've informed ICE that we can make available close to 30,000 beds, including surge capacity and third-party leases."

Guidance and Outlook

CoreCivic updated its guidance to reflect the acquisition of Farmville Detention Center and the reactivation of California City immigration processing center. The company expects to generate adjusted diluted EPS of $1.07 to $1.14 and normalized FFO per share of $1.99 to $2.07 for 2025. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 11.8%. With a P/E Ratio of 21.71 and an EV/EBITDA of 9.59, the market is pricing in a certain level of growth, which CoreCivic seems to be on track to deliver.

Valuation and Future Prospects

Given the company's strong financial performance and growth prospects, the valuation metrics appear reasonable. CoreCivic's ROE is 7.03%, and ROIC is 5.29%, indicating a decent return on equity and invested capital. With a Net Debt / EBITDA of 2.74, the company's debt profile is manageable. As the company continues to reactivate idle facilities and capitalize on the growing demand for detention capacity, investors may want to keep a close eye on CoreCivic's progress.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

CoreCivic Announces $200 Million Increase to Share Repurchase Authorization

Nov -10

Source: globenewswire.com

Card image cap

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -07

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

CoreCivic Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nov -05

Source: globenewswire.com

Card image cap

AlphaQuest LLC Has $435,000 Stock Position in CoreCivic, Inc. $CXW

Oct -30

Source: defenseworld.net

Card image cap

CoreCivic: From Distressed Credit To Policy-Backed Growth Story

Oct -28

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

CoreCivic: It Is Time To Trade With Options (Rating Upgrade)

Oct -15

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

CoreCivic Announces 2025 Third Quarter Earnings Release and Conference Call Dates

Oct -02

Source: globenewswire.com

Card image cap

CoreCivic Announces New Contract Award At Diamondback Correctional Facility

Oct -01

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.56%)

6. Segments

Safety

Expected Growth: None%

None

Community

Expected Growth: None%

None

Properties

Expected Growth: None%

None

Unallocated Other

Expected Growth: None%

None

7. Detailed Products

Correctional Facilities

CoreCivic operates a network of correctional facilities that provide a safe and secure environment for inmates, while also offering rehabilitation programs and services to help reduce recidivism.

Immigration Detention Centers

CoreCivic operates immigration detention centers that provide a safe and humane environment for individuals awaiting immigration proceedings, while also offering access to legal services and resources.

Residential Reentry Centers

CoreCivic operates residential reentry centers that provide a supportive environment for individuals transitioning back into their communities, offering counseling, job training, and other rehabilitation programs.

Community Corrections

CoreCivic offers community corrections services, including electronic monitoring, day reporting, and other alternative sentencing programs, to help individuals transition back into their communities.

Government Partnerships

CoreCivic partners with government agencies to provide a range of services, including facility management, rehabilitation programs, and community corrections services.

8. CoreCivic, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for CoreCivic, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative correctional facilities and services. While there are some substitutes, they may not offer the same level of quality and security as CoreCivic's facilities.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for CoreCivic, Inc. is low due to the company's strong relationships with government agencies and the lack of alternative service providers. Customers have limited negotiating power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for CoreCivic, Inc. is medium due to the company's dependence on a few key suppliers for goods and services. While suppliers have some negotiating power, CoreCivic's size and scale mitigate this power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for CoreCivic, Inc. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the correctional facilities industry. New entrants would need significant capital and expertise to compete with CoreCivic.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for CoreCivic, Inc. is high due to the competitive nature of the correctional facilities industry. The company faces competition from other private prison operators and government-run facilities.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 42.57%
Debt Cost 8.08%
Equity Weight 57.43%
Equity Cost 8.08%
WACC 8.08%
Leverage 74.11%

11. Quality Control: CoreCivic, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Franklin BSP Realty Trust

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 6.8

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Farmland Partners

A-Score: 7.0/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 8.8

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Gladstone Land

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
AFC Gamma

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 8.3

Growth: 7.4

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
CoreCivic

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Uniti

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 5.5

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 5.3

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

17.23$

Current Price

17.23$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows