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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Grand Canyon Education, Inc.provides education services to colleges and universities in the United States.The company's technology services include learning management system, internal administration, infrastructure, and support services; academic services comprises program and curriculum, faculty and related training and development, class scheduling, and skills and simulation lab sites; and counseling services and support include admission, financial aid, and field experience and other counseling services.


It also offers marketing and communication services, such as lead acquisition, digital communications strategy, brand identity, market research, media planning and strategy, video, and business intelligence and data science; and back-office services comprising finance and accounting, human resources, audit, and procurement services.The company, through its subsidiary, Orbis Education Services, LLC, supports healthcare education programs for 27 universities.Grand Canyon Education, Inc.


was founded in 1949 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona.

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1.b. Last Insights on LOPE

Grand Canyon Education's recent performance has been impacted by heavy selling pressure, with the stock experiencing a 19.3% decline over the past four weeks. Despite meeting Q3 earnings estimates with $1.78 per share, the company's growth prospects have been questioned. However, strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in revising earnings estimates higher indicates potential for a trend reversal. The company's Q3 2025 earnings call highlighted its robust services to 20 university partners, and its significant technological solutions. Zacks upgraded the stock to a #2 Buy rating, citing growing optimism about earnings prospects.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Grand Canyon Education's Strong Q3 2025 Earnings: Growth Across Delivery Platforms

Grand Canyon Education reported robust financial performance in Q3 2025, with service revenue reaching $261.1 million, a 9.6% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by a 9.6% growth in GCU online enrollments. Operating income and operating margin were $18 million and 6.9%, respectively, while adjusted operating income and margin, excluding charges, stood at $58.2 million and 22.3%. The company's EPS was $1.78, in line with analyst estimates. The strong revenue growth was accompanied by a slight increase in operating expenses, mainly due to higher benefit costs.

Publication Date: Nov -15

📋 Highlights
  • Online Enrollment Growth:: Increased by 9.6% year-over-year, driven by new programs, employer partnerships, and competitive pricing.
  • Hybrid Campus Growth:: Surpassed expectations with 17.4% enrollment growth, fueled by higher new student starts in ABSN programs and online prerequisites.
  • Service Revenue:: Reached $261.1 million, up 9.6% YoY, reflecting 9.6% growth in GCU online enrollments and increased partner enrollments.
  • Operating Margins:: Adjusted operating margin improved to 22.3% (from 6.9%), aided by higher revenue and contract modifications despite elevated benefit costs.
  • CapEx Guidance:: Q3 CapEx was $9.7 million (3.7% of revenue), with full-year 2025 CapEx projected at $30–35 million amid strategic campus investments.

Segment Performance

The company's online campus at Grand Canyon University saw a 9.6% total enrollment growth, driven by new program roll-outs, employer partnerships, and competitive pricing. The hybrid campus experienced a 17.4% year-over-year increase in enrollment, exceeding expectations, particularly in the ABSN program. The traditional campus saw a slight decline in enrollment, but the company remains optimistic about its low price point and relevant academic programs.

Guidance and Outlook

The company has updated its full-year 2025 guidance, reaffirming its previously provided range for Q4, based on current online trends. The fourth quarter is expected to be impacted by the government shutdown, resulting in slightly lower revenue from military tuition assistance students. For 2025, CapEx is expected to be between $30 million and $35 million. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 6.8%.

Valuation

With a P/E Ratio of 22.02 and an EV/EBITDA of 15.12, the stock appears to be reasonably valued. The company's ROE of 27.26% and ROIC of 22.01% indicate strong profitability. The current valuation metrics suggest that the market has priced in the company's growth prospects, but the expected revenue growth of 6.8% next year could provide further upside.

3. NewsRoom

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5 School Stocks Leveraging AI, Digital Learning & Healthcare Shortages

Dec -01

Source: zacks.com

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Stride vs. Grand Canyon Education: Which Education Stock to Buy Now?

Nov -28

Source: zacks.com

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Is Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) Stock Outpacing Its Consumer Discretionary Peers This Year?

Nov -14

Source: zacks.com

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Advyzon Investment Management LLC Increases Stock Holdings in Grand Canyon Education, Inc. $LOPE

Nov -12

Source: defenseworld.net

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Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) Upgraded to Buy: Here's What You Should Know

Nov -07

Source: zacks.com

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Down 19.3% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) Looks Ripe for a Turnaround

Nov -07

Source: zacks.com

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Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) Meets Q3 Earnings Estimates

Nov -05

Source: zacks.com

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Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (6.00%)

6. Segments

Education Services

Expected Growth: 6.0%

Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s 6.0% growth in Education Services is driven by increasing demand for online education, strategic partnerships, and expansion of degree programs. Additionally, the company's focus on affordability, flexibility, and student outcomes has led to higher student retention rates, contributing to revenue growth.

7. Detailed Products

Online Degree Programs

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. offers a wide range of online degree programs in fields such as business, education, healthcare, and more.

Traditional On-Ground Degree Programs

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. provides traditional on-ground degree programs at its campus in Phoenix, Arizona, offering a range of undergraduate and graduate degrees.

Professional Development and Continuing Education

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. offers professional development and continuing education courses for individuals seeking to enhance their skills or meet licensure requirements.

Counseling Services

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. provides counseling services to support students' academic and personal success.

Tutoring and Academic Support

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. offers tutoring and academic support services to help students succeed in their coursework.

8. Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. operates in a niche market, providing education services to a specific segment of students. The threat of substitutes is low due to the unique nature of its services.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. has a diverse student base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. However, the company still needs to maintain a high level of customer satisfaction to retain students and attract new ones.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. has a diversified supplier base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual suppliers. The company's scale of operations also gives it negotiating power with suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

While there are barriers to entry in the education services market, new entrants can still disrupt the market with innovative offerings. Grand Canyon Education, Inc. needs to stay competitive to maintain its market share.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The education services market is highly competitive, with several players vying for market share. Grand Canyon Education, Inc. needs to differentiate itself through its services and marketing efforts to stay ahead of the competition.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 12.15%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 87.85%
Equity Cost 6.92%
WACC 6.56%
Leverage 13.83%

11. Quality Control: Grand Canyon Education, Inc. passed 8 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Graham

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 7.3

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Laureate Education

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Grand Canyon Education

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 6.8

Quality: 8.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Stride

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 8.3

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Strategic Education

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Adtalem Global Education

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 3.7

Growth: 7.4

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

155.72$

Current Price

155.72$

Potential

0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows