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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Green Brick Partners, Inc.operates as a homebuilding and land development company in the United States.It operates through Builder operations Central, Builder operations Southeast, and Land development segments.


The company is involved in the land acquisition and development, entitlements, design, construction, title and mortgage services, marketing, and sale of townhomes, patio homes, single family homes, and luxury homes in residential neighborhoods, and master planned communities.As of December 31,2021, the company owns or controls approximately 28,600 home sites in Dallas-Forth Worth, Atlanta metropolitan areas, and the Treasure Coast, Florida market.The company sells its homes through sales representatives and independent realtors.


Green Brick Partners, Inc.was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Plano, Texas.

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1.b. Last Insights on GRBK

Green Brick Partners' recent performance was driven by record volumes delivered in Q2 2025, despite a softer housing market. The company's land-heavy, vertically integrated model and focus on fast-growing Texas, Georgia, and Florida markets support sustainable growth. New home deliveries increased 5.6% year-over-year, with net income attributable to Green Brick reaching $82 million or $1.85 per diluted share. Expansion into the Houston market, through its subsidiary Trophy Signature Homes, is underway with the grand opening of the Riviera Pines community.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Green Brick Partners' Q3 2025 Earnings: A Closer Look

Green Brick Partners, Inc. reported a net income attributable to the company of $78 million, or $1.77 per diluted share, beating analyst estimates of $1.43. The company's homebuilding gross margins decreased 160 basis points year-over-year to 31.1% due to increased discounts and incentives. The average sales price was $524,000, flat sequentially and down 4.2% year-over-year. The company's revenue growth was largely driven by a 2.4% increase in net orders year-over-year, with 898 net orders in the quarter. Incentives as a percentage of residential unit revenue increased to 8.1% from 5% year-over-year, impacting margins.

Publication Date: Nov -15

📋 Highlights
  • Net Income & EPS:: $78 million net income, $1.77 per diluted share.
  • Gross Margin Decline:: 31.1% margin, down 160 bps YoY due to discounts and incentives.
  • Incentives Surge:: 8.1% of residential revenue, up from 5% YoY, driving margin pressure.
  • Balance Sheet Strength:: Net debt-to-capital ratio at 9.8%, reinforcing low leverage.
  • ASP Decline:: Average sales price fell 4.3% YoY to $524,000, partially due to product mix.

Operational Highlights

The company closed 953 homes during the quarter, with Green Brick Mortgage, the company's wholly-owned mortgage company, closing and funding over 350 loans. The expansion into Houston is expected to be a key driver of growth, although community count growth won't be significant due to new high-velocity, lower-priced communities. James Brickman noted that their average price point in Atlanta is $300,000-$400,000 greater than in Texas, resulting in higher incentives in Atlanta.

Cost Structure and Margins

The company's costs are showing signs of stabilization, with land and lots stabilizing or slightly decreasing, lumber costs falling, and labor becoming more readily available, allowing for reductions. A 4.3% ASP decline was reported, with roughly less than half of this related to the mix of closings across builders. The company's gross margins, however, remain under pressure due to increased discounts and incentives.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 8.17 and an EV/EBITDA of 5.82, the company's valuation appears reasonable. Analysts estimate revenue growth at 0.9% next year. Green Brick's net debt to total capital ratio was 9.8%, and its debt to total capital ratio was 15.8%, indicating a strong balance sheet. The company remains optimistic about its long-term prospects, citing its strategic land position, high-quality product offerings, and strong balance sheet. Austin is expected to double, and Houston will grow meaningfully in 2027.

Mortgage Business and Future Plans

The mortgage business has seen a nice uptick, with plans to roll it out to all of Texas by the end of this year and to Houston and Atlanta by next year. The company expects to break out financial services separately next year, which will help SG&A. With a strong balance sheet and improving mortgage business, Green Brick is well-positioned for future growth.

3. NewsRoom

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3 Homebuilders in Focus Despite Challenging Market Backdrop

Dec -04

Source: zacks.com

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Is Green Brick Partners (GRBK) Outperforming Other Construction Stocks This Year?

Nov -24

Source: zacks.com

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Bank of New York Mellon Corp Raises Stock Position in Green Brick Partners, Inc. $GRBK

Nov -19

Source: defenseworld.net

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CB JENI Homes Named a Top Workplace in Dallas-Fort Worth for 2025

Nov -18

Source: businesswire.com

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David Einhorn's Strategic Moves: PG&E Corp Takes Center Stage with 3.79% Portfolio Impact

Nov -14

Source: gurufocus.com

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The Providence Group Wins Multiple OBIE Awards, Including Two Community of the Year Honors for Sawnee Village and Knollwood

Nov -10

Source: businesswire.com

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Trophy Signature Homes Opens New Model Home in Belmont Community, Offers New Homes for Sale in Aubrey, Texas

Nov -10

Source: businesswire.com

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Buy Green Brick, A Solid Homebuilder

Nov -06

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.56%)

6. Segments

Builder Operations Central

Expected Growth: 10%

Builder Operations Central's 10% growth is driven by increasing demand for new homes, strategic land acquisition, and operational efficiencies. Green Brick Partners' diversified revenue streams, including homebuilding, land development, and financial services, contribute to the segment's growth. Additionally, the company's focus on affordable luxury homes and strategic partnerships with national builders also support the growth momentum.

Builder Operations Southeast

Expected Growth: 12%

Strong demand for new homes in the Southeast region, driven by population growth, job creation, and migration to suburban areas, coupled with Green Brick's strategic land acquisition and development, efficient construction process, and diverse product offerings, contribute to the 12% growth of Builder Operations Southeast.

Land Development

Expected Growth: 9%

Green Brick Partners' 9% land development growth is driven by increasing demand for new homes, strategic land acquisitions, and partnerships with top homebuilders. The company's focus on high-growth markets, efficient development processes, and strong relationships with local governments also contribute to its growth.

7. Detailed Products

Residential Homes

Green Brick Partners, Inc. builds and sells single-family homes, townhomes, and condominiums in various communities across the United States.

Master-Planned Communities

The company develops and sells master-planned communities, which include amenities such as parks, trails, and community centers.

Land Development

Green Brick Partners acquires, develops, and sells land to other builders, investors, and developers.

Mortgage Services

The company offers mortgage services, including loan origination and title insurance, to its homebuyers.

Title Insurance and Closing Services

Green Brick Partners provides title insurance and closing services to its homebuyers and other customers.

8. Green Brick Partners, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Green Brick Partners, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative housing options, such as renting or buying existing homes. However, the company's focus on building high-quality, energy-efficient homes with modern amenities helps to differentiate its products and reduce the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low for Green Brick Partners, Inc. due to the company's focus on building high-quality homes in desirable locations, which gives it pricing power. Additionally, the company's sales process is designed to provide a personalized experience for customers, which helps to build loyalty and reduce price sensitivity.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is medium for Green Brick Partners, Inc. due to the company's reliance on a few large suppliers for materials such as lumber and drywall. However, the company's scale and purchasing power help to mitigate the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low for Green Brick Partners, Inc. due to the significant barriers to entry in the homebuilding industry, including the need for significant capital and expertise. Additionally, the company's established relationships with suppliers and its experience in navigating complex regulatory environments help to deter new entrants.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high for Green Brick Partners, Inc. due to the competitive nature of the homebuilding industry. The company faces competition from both national and regional homebuilders, and the industry is characterized by frequent price wars and intense marketing efforts.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 21.11%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 78.89%
Equity Cost 12.62%
WACC 10.79%
Leverage 26.76%

11. Quality Control: Green Brick Partners, Inc. passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Taylor Morrison

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 7.9

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Green Brick Partners

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 8.4

Quality: 7.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Tri Pointe Homes

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 8.2

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 6.3

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Meritage Homes

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 5.7

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Century Communities

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 7.6

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Skyline Champion

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 6.8

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

66.72$

Current Price

66.72$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows