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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a public homebuilder in the United States.The company designs, builds, and sells single and multi-family detached and attached homes; and develops lifestyle and master-planned communities.It also develops and constructs multi-use properties consisting of commercial space, retail, and multi-family properties under the Urban Form brand name; and offers title insurance and closing settlement services, as well as financial services.


In addition, the company operates under the Taylor Morrison, William Lyon Signature, and Darling Homes brand names in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North and South Carolina, Oregon, Texas, and Washington.Taylor Morrison Home Corporation was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.

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1.b. Last Insights on TMHC

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation faced challenges due to temporary margin softness as spec sales rise. Despite beating Q2 expectations on closings and pricing with stable margins, guidance indicates a short-term hit. A new $3B facility enhances capital flexibility for build-to-rent expansion but may not offset rising inventory costs. With a focus on sustainable growth, the company navigates industry headwinds. Its upcoming Q3 2025 earnings release on October 22 may provide further insight.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Taylor Morrison Home Corporation Beats Expectations with Strong Q3 Results

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation reported a net income of $201 million or $2.01 per diluted share, beating analyst estimates of $1.93. The company's adjusted net income was $211 million or $2.11 per diluted share. The company delivered 3,324 homes, with an average closing price of $602,000, generating $2 billion in home closings revenue. The reported home closing gross margin was 22.1%, with an adjusted home closing gross margin of 22.4%. As Sheryl Palmer noted, the company is "on track to achieve its full-year repurchase target of at least $350 million."

Publication Date: Oct -23

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Net Income:: Reported $201M net income ($2.01 EPS) and adjusted $211M ($2.11 EPS) in Q3.
  • Home Closings Revenue:: Delivered 3,324 homes at $602K avg price, totaling $2B in revenue.
  • Land Bank Flexibility:: 84,564 lots owned/controlled, 60% via options; 3,400 lots renegotiated with 8% price reduction.
  • Share Repurchases:: YTD $310M spent on 5.3M shares (5% of outstanding shares at year-start).
  • SG&A Efficiency:: SG&A ratio improved 80bps to 9% of home closings revenue, driven by cost controls.

Operational Highlights

The company's land bank provides a flexible and capital-efficient lot supply, with 84,564 homebuilding lots owned or controlled, including 12,000 finished lots. The company has made progress in its asset-light strategy, controlling 60% of its lot supply via options and off-balance sheet structures. The company expects to deliver 3,100 to 3,300 homes in the fourth quarter, with an average closing price of approximately $590,000.

Regional Performance

The company's regions showed mixed results, with Florida showing signs of stabilization and improvement, while Texas was a tougher quarter due to elevated inventories. The company's land pipeline and margins remain strong in Dallas, while Houston was competitive, particularly for first-time buyers. Carolina was broadly performing well, and California was tightened up on the capital front.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/E Ratio of 6.96 and an EV/EBITDA of 4.4, the company's valuation appears reasonable. The company's ROE is 14.24%, indicating a strong return on equity. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -6.4%. The company's guidance for the fourth quarter is in line with expectations, and the company's focus on cost control and process improvements is expected to drive SG&A leverage.

Land Acquisition and Incentives

In land acquisition, 3,400 lots were renegotiated in the quarter, with an 8% decrease in original purchase price. Margins on renegotiated deals are being maintained, with benefits expected to flow through over time. Incentives vary by consumer group, with first-time buyers receiving the most support. The company is using various incentives, including rate buy-downs, adjustable loans, and proprietary loans, to stimulate sales.

3. NewsRoom

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Fisher Asset Management LLC Decreases Stock Position in Taylor Morrison Home Corporation $TMHC

Dec -03

Source: defenseworld.net

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Boston Partners Has $36.98 Million Stock Holdings in Taylor Morrison Home Corporation $TMHC

Nov -28

Source: defenseworld.net

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Rep. Lisa C. McClain Sells Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (NYSE:TMHC) Stock

Nov -27

Source: defenseworld.net

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Taylor Morrison: Attractive Valuation And Order Rebound Should Drive Good 2026 Upside

Nov -25

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Taylor Morrison Home Corporation $TMHC Shares Acquired by Creative Planning

Nov -24

Source: defenseworld.net

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Fortune Names Taylor Morrison to 2025 Best Workplaces in Construction™ and Best Workplaces for Women™ Lists

Nov -20

Source: prnewswire.com

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9,089 Shares in Taylor Morrison Home Corporation $TMHC Acquired by Aviva PLC

Nov -14

Source: defenseworld.net

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Is the Options Market Predicting a Spike in Taylor Morrison Home Stock?

Nov -10

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.13%)

6. Segments

East

Expected Growth: 2%

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation's East segment growth is driven by increasing demand for new homes, particularly in the Southeast and Texas regions, where the company has a strong presence. Additionally, the segment benefits from a favorable demographic trend, with millennials and baby boomers seeking affordable housing options, and a strong job market, which supports consumer confidence and purchasing power.

West

Expected Growth: 3%

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation's West segment growth is driven by increasing demand for new homes in Western states, particularly in California and Arizona, fueled by job growth, low unemployment, and migration to these regions. Additionally, the company's strategic land acquisition and development efforts, as well as its focus on first-time homebuyers and move-up buyers, contribute to its growth.

Central

Expected Growth: 1%

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation's central segment growth is driven by increasing demand for new homes, fueled by low interest rates, government incentives, and a strong economy. Additionally, the company's strategic expansion into new markets, focus on first-time homebuyers, and investments in digital marketing and sales platforms contribute to its growth momentum.

Financial Services

Expected Growth: 4%

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation's 4% growth in Financial Services is driven by increasing mortgage originations, rising interest rates, and expanding title and insurance services. Additionally, the company's strategic partnerships and digital platform enhancements have improved customer engagement, leading to higher revenue and profitability.

Corporate and Unallocated

Expected Growth: 1%

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation's Corporate and Unallocated segment growth is driven by strategic land acquisition, increasing community count, and operational efficiencies. The company's focus on expanding its footprint in high-growth markets, coupled with its ability to manage construction costs and improve pricing power, contributes to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Single-Family Homes

Taylor Morrison offers a wide range of single-family homes, from starter homes to luxury estates, designed to meet the needs of various lifestyles and budgets.

Townhomes

Taylor Morrison's townhomes offer a low-maintenance lifestyle with shared walls, perfect for those who want the benefits of homeownership without the upkeep of a single-family home.

Condominiums

Taylor Morrison's condominiums provide a carefree lifestyle with shared amenities and services, ideal for those who want to own their home without the burden of exterior maintenance.

Active Adult Communities

Taylor Morrison's active adult communities cater to adults 55+, offering resort-style amenities and low-maintenance living, allowing residents to focus on their passions and interests.

Rental Communities

Taylor Morrison's rental communities offer a range of apartments and townhomes for rent, providing flexibility and convenience for those who prefer renting over homeownership.

8. Taylor Morrison Home Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation faces moderate threat from substitutes, as customers have limited alternatives for new home purchases. However, the company's focus on customer experience and quality construction helps to mitigate this threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation's customers have limited bargaining power due to the company's strong brand reputation and limited competition in the new home construction market.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation's suppliers have moderate bargaining power due to the company's dependence on a few large suppliers for materials and labor. However, the company's scale and negotiating power help to mitigate this threat.

Threat Of New Entrants

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation faces a low threat from new entrants due to the high barriers to entry in the new home construction market, including regulatory hurdles and significant capital requirements.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation operates in a highly competitive market with several established players, leading to a high intensity of rivalry. The company must focus on differentiating itself through quality, customer experience, and innovative products to maintain market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 28.28%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 71.72%
Equity Cost 13.28%
WACC 10.64%
Leverage 39.42%

11. Quality Control: Taylor Morrison Home Corporation passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Taylor Morrison

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 7.9

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 6.7

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Green Brick Partners

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 8.4

Quality: 7.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 5.3

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Stock-Card
M/I Homes

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 8.2

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 5.7

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Tri Pointe Homes

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 8.2

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Meritage Homes

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 5.7

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Stock-Card
Century Communities

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 7.6

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

62.98$

Current Price

62.98$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows