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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

nCino, Inc., a software-as-a-service company, provides cloud-based software applications to financial institutions in the United States and internationally.Its nCino Bank Operating System, a tenant cloud platform, which digitizes, automates, and streamlines complex processes and workflow; and utilizes data analytics and artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) to enable banks and credit unions to onboard new clients, make loans and manage the entire loan life cycle, open deposit and other accounts, and manage regulatory compliance.The company's nCino IQ, an application suite that utilizes data analytics and AI/ML to provide its customers with automation and insights into their operations, such as tools for analyzing, measuring, and managing credit risk, as well as to enhance their ability to comply with regulatory requirements.


It also offers SimpleNexus, a suite of products that enables loan officers, borrowers, real estate agents, settlement agents, and others to engage in the homeownership process from internet-enabled device.The company serves financial institution customers, including global financial institutions, enterprise banks, regional banks, community banks, credit unions, new market entrants, and independent mortgage banks through sales team comprising business development representatives, account executives, field sales engineers, and customer success managers.nCino, Inc.


was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Wilmington, North Carolina.

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1.b. Last Insights on NCNO

nCino's recent performance faced challenges due to increasing competition in the banking solutions market. Despite beating Q2 earnings and revenue estimates with $0.22 per share, concerns about the company's growth rate and market penetration persist. With only 3% penetration into its $19.5 billion addressable market, nCino must demonstrate sustained growth. Additionally, while introducing new products like "Digital Partners," a role-based AI agent, the company must balance innovation with execution risks. According to Zacks, nCino has a strong buy rating.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. nCino's Q3 Fiscal 2026 Earnings: Strong Revenue Growth and AI-Driven Demand

nCino reported total revenues of $152.2 million for its third quarter fiscal 2026, representing a 10% year-over-year increase, with subscription revenues reaching $133.4 million, up 11% year-over-year on a reported basis and 7% organically. Non-GAAP operating income was $39.9 million, or 26% of total revenues. The company's actual EPS came out at $0.31, beating estimates of $0.2. The strong financial performance was driven by significant sales traction, including a $5.5 billion bank expanding its relationship with nCino, and a new customer win in Japan.

Publication Date: Dec -07

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth:: Q3 FY2026 total revenue rose 10% YoY to $152.2M, with subscription revenue up 11% to $133.4M.
  • Non-GAAP Operating Margin:: Achieved 26% non-GAAP operating margin ($39.9M) in Q3, driven by AI efficiency and cost discipline.
  • AI Adoption Momentum:: 110+ customers purchased Banking Advisor AI units, with incremental AOI margins hitting 90% in Q3 and 130% in Q4 guidance.
  • Share Repurchase Completion:: Executed $100M share buyback program, repurchasing 1.4M shares in Q3, signaling confidence in valuation.
  • ACV Conversion Progress:: 27% of ACV now converted to platform pricing, with 10% like-for-like revenue lift under new pricing model.

Operational Highlights and AI Strategy

nCino's AI strategy is driving demand, with over 110 customers purchasing Banking Advisor intelligence units. The company's incremental AOI margins in the quarter were close to 90%, and 130% for fiscal 4Q, attributed to AI, cost discipline, and a healthy gross margin. The management team highlighted that customers remain aggressive on tech investments, with AI driving the narrative, and most have an increase in their IT budgets this year.

Guidance and Outlook

nCino expects total revenues of $591.9 million to $593.4 million for fiscal '26, up 10% at the midpoint, and subscription revenues of $520.5 million to $522 million, up 11% at the midpoint. Non-GAAP operating income is expected to be $127.2 million to $128.2 million, up 33% over fiscal '25. The company also expects its fiscal '26 outlook for ACV to remain $564 million to $567 million, representing growth of 10% in constant currency.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/S Ratio of 4.62 and EV/EBITDA of 76.13, the market is pricing in significant growth expectations. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 9.7%. The company's focus on expanding deals, making every customer a platform customer, and driving adoption of its AI and digital solutions positions it well for future growth. The international opportunity, particularly in EMEA, is expected to outpace overall company growth.

Key Drivers and Future Initiatives

The company's growth vectors driving ACV growth include serving credit unions, mortgage and onboarding products, AI offerings, and traction in EMEA. nCino is focused on creating value and improving outcomes for customers across the platform, which drives productive discussions during renewals. The company is also focused on holding customers closely and being side-by-side with them on the journey, driving agent adoption, and making it a change management problem rather than a technology problem.

3. NewsRoom

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Value Fund Cuts nCino Stake After $152 Million Quarter: What Long-Term Investors Should Know

Dec -07

Source: fool.com

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nCino: Growth Slowdown Offsets Cheap Valuation (Downgrade)

Dec -04

Source: seekingalpha.com

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These Analysts Revise Their Forecasts On nCino After Q3 Results

Dec -04

Source: benzinga.com

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nCino, Inc. (NCNO) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Dec -04

Source: seekingalpha.com

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nCino (NCNO) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates

Dec -03

Source: zacks.com

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nCino Reports Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results

Dec -03

Source: globenewswire.com

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nCino Appoints Two New Independent Board Members

Dec -03

Source: globenewswire.com

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nCino to Participate in Upcoming Investor Events

Nov -25

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (11.82%)

6. Segments

Subscription

Expected Growth: 11.47%

nCino's subscription growth of 11.47% is driven by increasing adoption of cloud-based banking solutions, growing demand for digital transformation in the financial sector, and the company's expanding partner ecosystem. Additionally, nCino's platform's ability to streamline loan processing, improve customer experience, and provide data-driven insights are key factors contributing to its subscription growth.

Professional Services and Other

Expected Growth: 13.93%

nCino's Professional Services and Other segment growth of 13.93% is driven by increasing adoption of its cloud-based banking solutions, expansion of existing customer relationships, and growing demand for digital transformation in the financial services industry. Additionally, the company's strategic partnerships and investments in innovation are contributing to its rapid growth.

7. Detailed Products

nCino Bank Operating System

A cloud-based banking platform that provides a single, unified platform for all banking functions, including customer onboarding, account opening, loan origination, deposit and loan servicing, and reporting.

Customer Onboarding

A digital onboarding solution that enables banks to quickly and efficiently onboard new customers, reducing abandonment rates and improving the overall customer experience.

Account Opening

A digital account opening solution that enables banks to quickly and efficiently open new accounts, reducing manual errors and improving the customer experience.

Loan Origination

A digital loan origination solution that enables banks to quickly and efficiently originate loans, reducing manual errors and improving the customer experience.

Deposit and Loan Servicing

A digital deposit and loan servicing solution that enables banks to efficiently manage deposit and loan accounts, reducing manual errors and improving the customer experience.

Reporting and Analytics

A reporting and analytics solution that provides banks with real-time insights and analytics to inform business decisions and improve operational efficiency.

8. nCino, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

nCino, Inc. operates in a niche market, providing cloud-based banking solutions. While there are substitutes available, they are not as comprehensive as nCino's offerings, reducing the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

nCino's customers are primarily large financial institutions, which have limited bargaining power due to the complexity and customization required for their banking solutions.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

nCino's suppliers are primarily technology and infrastructure providers, which are abundant and interchangeable, reducing their bargaining power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The cloud-based banking solutions market is attractive, and new entrants may be drawn to the market, increasing the threat of new entrants.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The cloud-based banking solutions market is moderately competitive, with a few established players, including nCino, FIS, and Fiserv, leading to a moderate intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 6.61%
Debt Cost 5.37%
Equity Weight 93.39%
Equity Cost 6.81%
WACC 6.71%
Leverage 7.07%

11. Quality Control: nCino, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Sprinklr

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 3.5

Growth: 8.8

Quality: 8.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 4.7

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JFrog

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 4.5

Growth: 7.0

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 4.3

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Procore

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 4.4

Growth: 7.9

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 4.7

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Envestnet

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 3.7

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 6.3

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nCino

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 3.0

Growth: 7.4

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 4.7

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GitLab

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 4.4

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 2.7

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

25.39$

Current Price

25.39$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows