Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Nexstar Media Group, Inc., a television broadcasting and digital media company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and operation of television stations and interactive community websites and digital media services in the United States.The company offers free programming to television viewing audiences.As of December 31, 2020, it provided sales, programming, and other services through various local service agreements to 37 power television stations owned by independent third parties; and owned, operated, programmed, or provided sales and other services to 198 television stations.

The company also offers video and display advertising platforms that are delivered locally or nationally through its own and various third party websites and mobile applications, as well as owns WGN America, a national general entertainment cable network.Its stations are affiliates of ABC, NBC, FOX, CBS, The CW, MyNetworkTV, and other broadcast television networks.The company was formerly known as Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc.

and changed its name to Nexstar Media Group, Inc.in January 2017.Nexstar Media Group, Inc.

was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on NXST

Nexstar Media Group's recent performance was driven by solid Q4 2025 financial results, with net revenue reaching $1.29 billion. The company's underlying operations remain stable, despite the absence of election-year advertising and a $381M impairment. CEO Perry A. Sook emphasized the company's efforts to compete with big tech and big media. Additionally, Nexstar's participation in investor conferences, including the Morgan Stanley TMT Conference, highlights its commitment to investor engagement. The company's forward P/E of 8.21 appears undervalued versus peers.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	245.53
Change Percentage	0.81%
Open	243.55
Previous Close	243.55
Market Cap ( Millions)	7446
Volume	292830
Year High	254.3
Year Low	141.66
M A 50	218.54
M A 200	197.07

FCF Yield	9.98%
Dividend Yield	3.03%
ROE	4.92%
Debt / Equity	332.27%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	390.15%
Price To Book	3.61
Price Earnings Ratio	68.31
Price To FCF	10.02
Price To sales	1.5
EV / EBITDA	8.32

2. Nexstar Media Group's Q4 2025 Earnings: A Strong Finish to a Challenging Year

Nexstar Media Group reported fourth quarter 2025 net revenue of $1.29 billion, a decline of 13.4% compared to the prior year, primarily due to a reduction in political advertising. Despite this decline, the company's nonpolitical advertising revenue grew 4.5% in the quarter, driven by categories such as gaming, banking, and sports betting. Adjusted EBITDA was $433 million, representing a 33.6% margin, and adjusted free cash flow was $214 million. The company's actual EPS came out at $4.3, beating estimates of $4.01.

Publication Date: Mar -01

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Revenue Decline:
                                                Net revenue fell 13.4% to $1.29 billion, driven by a $233 million drop in political advertising, which reduced ad revenue by 27.6% to $549 million.
Nonpolitical Ad Growth:
                                                Nonpolitical advertising revenue grew 4.5%, with gaming, banking, and sports betting as top-performing categories.
TEGNA Acquisition:
                                                Expected to close by Q2 2026, projected to create $10.8 billion in total political ad revenue for the 2025-2026 cycle and a 30% loss reduction for The CW in 2026.
EBITDA Margin:
                                                Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $433 million achieved a 33.6% margin, with 2026 guidance of $1.95–$2.05 billion from cost savings and operational efficiency.

                                

Revenue Mix and Performance

Distribution revenue increased 0.8% to $720 million, driven by increased rates and growth in vMVPD subscribers. Advertising revenue decreased 27.6% to $549 million, primarily due to a $233 million decrease in political advertising. The company's assets, including The CW and NewsNation, continue to perform well, with The CW exceeding financial expectations in 2025 and NewsNation posting its strongest year ever in total day, primetime, and daytime viewership.

Outlook and Guidance

Nexstar expects to deliver additional cash operating expense savings in 2026 and projects stand-alone adjusted EBITDA of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion. The company remains confident in its long-term outlook and is committed to unlocking greater value from its assets as its audiences grow. Nexstar expects 2026 revenue growth in the low to mid-single digits due to contract renewals and improved subscriber attrition trends.

Valuation and Dividend Yield

With a P/E Ratio of 69.84 and an EV/EBITDA of 8.81, Nexstar's valuation appears to be pricing in a strong growth outlook. The company's dividend yield is 2.96%, which is relatively attractive. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -6.5%, which may be a concern for investors. However, Nexstar's ROIC is 61.76%, indicating a strong return on invested capital.

Regulatory Update and Acquisition

Nexstar's proposed acquisition of TEGNA is on track, with the company expecting to close the deal by the end of the second quarter of 2026. The company is working to complete information requests and expects the FCC shot clock to expire on June 1. The acquisition is expected to create substantial and immediate value for shareholders while advancing the public interest by strengthening local broadcast journalism and providing an expanded range of competitive broadcast and digital advertising solutions.

3. NewsRoom

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) Presents at Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference 2026 Transcript

Mar -04

Source: seekingalpha.com

Despite Upbeat Q4 Revenues, Nexstar Still Faces Uncertainty On Tegna Acquisition

Feb -27

Source: seekingalpha.com

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -26

Source: seekingalpha.com

Nexstar Media Group Reports Fourth Quarter Net Revenue of $1.29 Billion

Feb -26

Source: businesswire.com

Channing Capital Management LLC Has $70.54 Million Stock Holdings in Nexstar Media Group, Inc. $NXST

Feb -22

Source: defenseworld.net

Here's Why This Investment Advisor is Loading up on This Media Stock

Feb -19

Source: fool.com

Federal Communications Commission chair backs Nexstar, Tegna merger

Feb -18

Source: reuters.com

Nexstar Media Group to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences

Feb -18

Source: businesswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.54%)

6. Segments

Broadcast

Expected Growth: None%

None

Other

Expected Growth: None%

None

Corporate (unallocated)

Expected Growth: None%

None

Eliminations

Expected Growth: None%

None

7. Detailed Products

Television Broadcasting

Nexstar Media Group owns, operates, and provides services to 197 television stations across the United States, reaching approximately 39% of U.S. television households.

Digital Media

Nexstar's digital media segment offers a range of digital products and services, including news and entertainment websites, mobile apps, and social media platforms.

Cable Network Programming

Nexstar owns and operates several cable networks, including NewsNation, Antenna TV, and Rewind TV, offering a range of entertainment, news, and sports programming.

Digital Marketing Services

Nexstar's digital marketing services provide local businesses with a range of solutions, including website design, search engine optimization, and social media management.

Broadcast and Digital Video Production

Nexstar offers video production services for broadcast and digital platforms, including commercials, promotional content, and live events.

8. Nexstar Media Group, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry, but the threat of substitutes is mitigated by the company's diversified portfolio of media outlets and its strong brand recognition.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's strong brand recognition and high-quality content give it a competitive advantage.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. relies on a few large suppliers for its broadcasting equipment and services, which gives them some bargaining power. However, the company's size and scale of operations mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the broadcasting industry, including the need for significant capital investment and regulatory approvals.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The broadcasting industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. Nexstar Media Group, Inc. faces intense competition from other media companies, which can lead to pricing pressure and reduced market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	74.96%
Debt Cost	9.31%
Equity Weight	25.04%
Equity Cost	11.41%
WACC	9.84%
Leverage	299.43%

11. Quality Control: Nexstar Media Group, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Deb

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Nexstar Media

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 8.2

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

News Corp

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Sirius XM

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 8.5

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Warner Music

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 2.6

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Madison Square Garden Sports

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 4.4

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Endeavor Group Holdings

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 4.9

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 2.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

2.49%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

9.84%

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. - US65336K1034

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on NXST

1.c. Company Highlights

Higher Yield

Higher Growth

Average Quality

Earnings Beats

Medium Volatility

Earnings Miss

Revenues Miss

Less Volatile

Revenues Beats

Better Quality

2. Nexstar Media Group's Q4 2025 Earnings: A Strong Finish to a Challenging Year

Revenue Mix and Performance

Outlook and Guidance

Valuation and Dividend Yield

Regulatory Update and Acquisition

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.54%)

6. Segments

Broadcast

Expected Growth: None%

Other

Expected Growth: None%

Corporate (unallocated)

Expected Growth: None%

Eliminations

Expected Growth: None%

7. Detailed Products

Television Broadcasting

Digital Media

Cable Network Programming

Digital Marketing Services

Broadcast and Digital Video Production

8. Nexstar Media Group, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Nexstar Media Group, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

245.53$

Current Price

245.53$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA