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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Nexstar Media Group, Inc., a television broadcasting and digital media company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and operation of television stations and interactive community websites and digital media services in the United States.The company offers free programming to television viewing audiences.As of December 31, 2020, it provided sales, programming, and other services through various local service agreements to 37 power television stations owned by independent third parties; and owned, operated, programmed, or provided sales and other services to 198 television stations.


The company also offers video and display advertising platforms that are delivered locally or nationally through its own and various third party websites and mobile applications, as well as owns WGN America, a national general entertainment cable network.Its stations are affiliates of ABC, NBC, FOX, CBS, The CW, MyNetworkTV, and other broadcast television networks.The company was formerly known as Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc.


and changed its name to Nexstar Media Group, Inc.in January 2017.Nexstar Media Group, Inc.


was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

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1.b. Last Insights on NXST

Nexstar Media Group's recent performance was driven by strong Q2 revenue, exceeding estimates at $1.23 billion. The company's diversified media business and leading industry position contributed to its resilience. A quarterly cash dividend of $1.86 per share was declared, demonstrating its commitment to shareholder value. Additionally, Nexstar's potential acquisition of Tegna may provide scale at the local TV level. The company's distribution revenue stability and CW Network's shift to profitability are key catalysts for growth. (Source: Zacks Rank #1)

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Nexstar Media's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Mixed Bag

Nexstar Media Group reported a net revenue of $1.2 billion for the third quarter of 2025, a 12.3% decline from the previous year, primarily due to a reduction in political advertising revenue. The company's distribution revenue stood at $709 million, down 1.4%, while advertising revenue was $476 million, down 23.5%. Non-political advertising revenue was flat, beating expectations. Adjusted EBITDA was $358 million, representing a 29.9% margin. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.14, below analyst estimates of $2.62. The company's cash balance was $236 million, and its debt balance was $6.4 billion.

Publication Date: Nov -09

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Decline:: Q3 2025 net revenue fell to $1.2 billion (-12.3 YoY), driven by a 23.5% drop in advertising revenue, though non-political ads remained flat.
  • TEGNA Acquisition Impact:: The $6.2 billion TEGNA deal is projected to add 64 top 75 DMA stations, $300 million in synergies, and >40% accretion to adjusted free cash flow, closing by late 2026.
  • Strong EBITDA Margin:: Adjusted EBITDA reached $358 million with a 29.9% margin, reflecting operational efficiency despite revenue headwinds.
  • Financial Discipline:: Nexstar returned $56 million in dividends and repaid $25 million in debt, maintaining a low net first lien covenant ratio of 1.73x (vs. 4.25x covenant).
  • Political Advertising Outlook:: Q3 political revenue hit $10 million, with 2026 expected to see strong political spending, boosted by state elections and redistricting initiatives.

Segment Performance

The decline in advertising revenue was largely due to lower political advertising, which generated $10 million in revenue, driven by state-wide elections in Virginia and California's redistricting ballot initiative. The company's non-political advertising revenue was flat, indicating a stable underlying business. Distribution revenue, which includes retransmission fees, was down 1.4%, a relatively modest decline.

TEGNA Acquisition Update

Nexstar's proposed acquisition of TEGNA is valued at $6.2 billion and is expected to be more than 40% accretive to Nexstar's stand-alone adjusted free cash flow. The transaction is projected to close in the second half of 2026. The acquisition is expected to generate $300 million in synergies, with 45% coming from net retrans and the remainder from operations. The combined entity will have local news in approximately 80% of the country and significant spectrum holdings.

Valuation and Outlook

Nexstar's valuation metrics indicate a relatively attractive profile, with a P/E ratio of 11.19, EV/EBITDA of 5.92, and a dividend yield of 3.81%. Analysts estimate revenue growth of 10.7% for next year, driven by the TEGNA acquisition and a strong political advertising outlook. The company's net debt to EBITDA ratio is 3.05x, indicating a manageable debt burden. With the acquisition expected to drive shareholder value, along with a decreasing interest rate environment and distribution contract resets, Nexstar is well-positioned for growth in 2026.

Growth Strategies

Nexstar plans to accelerate growth strategies for the CW and NewsNation networks, deploy ATSC 3.0 applications, and innovate its products and services. The company is optimistic about the potential for NFL media rights negotiations, believing broadcast brings more eyeballs and bigger events than any other platform. With a strong track record of execution and a solid financial position, Nexstar is poised to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the media landscape.

3. NewsRoom

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Market Today: Deal Talks, Retail Wins, AI Chips, and Crypto Volatility

Dec -02

Source: gurufocus.com

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Broadcast station owners want to consolidate. They're struggling to get deals to the finish line

Dec -02

Source: cnbc.com

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Financial Contrast: Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) and Nexstar Media Group (NASDAQ:NXST)

Nov -26

Source: defenseworld.net

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Trump pours cold water on proposed FCC rule change that would allow Nexstar and Sinclair acquisitions

Nov -24

Source: marketwatch.com

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'EXISTENTIAL THREAT': Nexstar CEO fights to protect truth from Big Tech control

Nov -22

Source: youtube.com

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Here's why Nexstar's CEO thinks the FCC should change the rules to allow a merger with Tegna

Nov -19

Source: marketwatch.com

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Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) Presents at Wells Fargo's 9th Annual TMT Summit Transcript

Nov -19

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Nexstar Seeks Approval of TEGNA Acquisition From Federal Communications Commission

Nov -18

Source: businesswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.54%)

6. Segments

Broadcast

Expected Growth: None%

None

Other

Expected Growth: None%

None

Corporate (unallocated)

Expected Growth: None%

None

Eliminations

Expected Growth: None%

None

7. Detailed Products

Television Broadcasting

Nexstar Media Group owns, operates, and provides services to 197 television stations across the United States, reaching approximately 39% of U.S. television households.

Digital Media

Nexstar's digital media segment offers a range of digital products and services, including news and entertainment websites, mobile apps, and social media platforms.

Cable Network Programming

Nexstar owns and operates several cable networks, including NewsNation, Antenna TV, and Rewind TV, offering a range of entertainment, news, and sports programming.

Digital Marketing Services

Nexstar's digital marketing services provide local businesses with a range of solutions, including website design, search engine optimization, and social media management.

Broadcast and Digital Video Production

Nexstar offers video production services for broadcast and digital platforms, including commercials, promotional content, and live events.

8. Nexstar Media Group, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry, but the threat of substitutes is mitigated by the company's diversified portfolio of media outlets and its strong brand recognition.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's strong brand recognition and high-quality content give it a competitive advantage.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. relies on a few large suppliers for its broadcasting equipment and services, which gives them some bargaining power. However, the company's size and scale of operations mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the broadcasting industry, including the need for significant capital investment and regulatory approvals.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The broadcasting industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. Nexstar Media Group, Inc. faces intense competition from other media companies, which can lead to pricing pressure and reduced market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 74.96%
Debt Cost 9.31%
Equity Weight 25.04%
Equity Cost 11.41%
WACC 9.84%
Leverage 299.43%

11. Quality Control: Nexstar Media Group, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Nexstar Media

A-Score: 7.3/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 8.2

Quality: 7.6

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 6.7

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News Corp

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 5.5

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 9.0

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Madison Square Garden Sports

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 8.7

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Sirius XM

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 4.3

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Warner Music

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 1.3

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 8.3

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Endeavor Group Holdings

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 2.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 6.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

189.84$

Current Price

189.84$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows