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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States.The company primarily holds interests in the Williston Basin, the Appalachian Basin, and the Permian Basin in the United States.As of December 31, 2021, it owned working interests in 7,436 gross producing wells; and had proved reserves of 287,682 million barrels of oil equivalent.


The company is based in Minnetonka, Minnesota.

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1.b. Last Insights on NOG

Breaking News: Northern Oil and Gas Inc reported Q4 earnings that beat estimates but revenues missed expectations and declined year-over-year. For 2026, the company expects total output to range from 139000-143000 Boe/d in a low-activity scenario and 144000-148000 Boe/d in a high-activity scenario. Analysts at Truist Securities and at Roth MKM have a buy rating on the stock . Analysts at Barclays have a hold rating on the stock .

1.c. Company Highlights

2. NOG's Q4 Earnings: A Strong Finish to a Resilient Year

NOG's fourth-quarter financial results were impressive, with adjusted net income of $82 million or $0.83 per diluted share, beating estimates of $0.71. Total average daily production was 140,000 BOE per day, up 7% from Q3 2025 and up 6% versus Q4 2024. Adjusted EBITDA was $367 million, and free cash flow was $43 million. For the year, adjusted EBITDA was $1.63 billion with free cash flow of $424 million.

Publication Date: Mar -01

📋 Highlights
  • Financial Performance: Adjusted EBITDA of $367M in Q4 and $1.63B for 2025, with free cash flow of $43M and $424M respectively.
  • Production Growth: Q4 gas production reached 392 MMcf/day (up 24% YoY), while oil production averaged 75,000 barrels/day (3% QoQ increase).
  • Capital Allocation: 2025 CapEx totaled $1B, including $174M for ground game investments and $340M+ in acquisitions closed in 2025.
  • Dividend Sustainability: Adjusted net income of $453M ($4.57/share) in 2025, supporting a dividend commitment with $130–150M annual cash benefits at $65 WTI.
  • Future Activity: 13 net wells consented but unspud (60% in Permian), with 40%+ half-cycle returns, and 2026 activity split: 40% Permian, 25% Appalachia, 25% Williston, 10% Uinta.

Operational Highlights

The company's oil production increased 3% to 75,000 barrels of oil per day sequentially but was 5% lower year-over-year. Gas production reached record levels for the third consecutive quarter with 392 MMcf per day, up 11% sequentially and 24% from Q4 2024. The company's natural gas spending increased dramatically, while its oil spending declined, a strategic decision that paid off with record natural gas volumes aligned with high seasonal prices.

Guidance and Outlook

The company provided two ranges for guidance, capturing potential production, operating expenses, and CapEx in a low activity environment and a high activity environment. In the low case, the company assumes reduced activity, while in the high case, it assumes more normal activity. The company's ground game can play a major role in the in-between of these scenarios, where opportunities may arise for it to deploy ad hoc capital throughout the year. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 4.8%.

Valuation and Dividend

With a P/E Ratio of 69.55 and an EV/EBITDA of 2.55, the company's valuation appears to be reasonable considering its growth prospects. The Dividend Yield is 6.52%, indicating an attractive return for income investors. The company's commitment to growing its dividend over the long term is reassuring, and its ability to sustain it even in a weaker environment is a testament to its financial strength.

Management's Strategy

As Nicholas O'Grady stated, the company will continue to evaluate its asset base and consider divestitures if it makes economic sense. The recent Utica acquisition is a significant step in its growth strategy, and the company's integrated upstream and midstream assets are expected to drive future growth. The company's liquidity position is strong, with over $1 billion available after closing its joint Utica acquisition.

3. NewsRoom

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Northern Oil And Gas: The Best Money Could Buy Right Now

Mar -03

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Northern Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Miss, Both Down Y/Y

Feb -27

Source: zacks.com

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Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -26

Source: seekingalpha.com

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NOG Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results; Provides Detailed 2026 Guidance

Feb -25

Source: businesswire.com

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NOG Declares $0.45 Quarterly Cash Dividend, Announces 2026 Management Dividend Recommendations

Feb -24

Source: businesswire.com

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NOG Closes Joint Ohio Utica Acquisition, Announces Upsized Credit Facility

Feb -23

Source: businesswire.com

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Channing Capital Management LLC Boosts Holdings in Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. $NOG

Feb -22

Source: defenseworld.net

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NOG and Infinity Natural Resources Adjust Ownership Split of Pending Joint Ohio Utica Acquisition

Feb -19

Source: businesswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.27%)

6. Segments

Oil

Expected Growth: 5.0%

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s 5.0% growth in oil production is driven by increased drilling activities in the Williston Basin, improved well completion techniques, and enhanced oil recovery methods. Additionally, strategic acquisitions and partnerships have expanded the company's acreage and resource base, contributing to the growth.

Natural Gas and Natural Gas Liquids

Expected Growth: 7.0%

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s 7.0% growth in Natural Gas and Natural Gas Liquids is driven by increased production from its Williston Basin assets, improved well completion techniques, and higher commodity prices. Additionally, strategic acquisitions and a focus on operational efficiency have contributed to the company's growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Crude Oil

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, and production of crude oil from its properties located in the Williston Basin, primarily in North Dakota and Montana.

Natural Gas

The company also produces natural gas, which is often found in association with crude oil, from its properties in the Williston Basin.

Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. also produces NGLs, which are extracted from natural gas and used as a feedstock for petrochemical plants.

Mineral Interests

The company acquires and holds mineral interests in oil and gas properties, providing a revenue stream through royalty payments.

8. Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative energy sources such as solar and wind power.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is low due to the lack of negotiating power of individual customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers of oil and gas equipment and services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is high due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the oil and gas industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is high due to the presence of many established players in the oil and gas industry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 47.27%
Debt Cost 8.19%
Equity Weight 52.73%
Equity Cost 13.19%
WACC 10.82%
Leverage 89.64%

11. Quality Control: Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Permian Resources

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 7.8

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Magnolia Oil & Gas

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 7.7

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Matador Resources

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 8.5

Growth: 8.8

Quality: 7.5

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Murphy Oil

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 7.9

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Northern Oil and Gas

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Ovintiv

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

28.09$

Current Price

28.09$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows