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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

RXO provides truckload freight transportation brokerage in the United States.The company, through a proprietary digital freight marketplace, offers access to truckload capacity and complementary brokered services of managed transportation, last mile, and freight forwarding.The company is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.

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1.b. Last Insights on RXO

Breaking News: RXO Inc reported no recent earnings release. The stock price dropped 8.6% to $14.12 with 197,894 shares traded. Nineteen brokerages have a hold rating for the company with four sell, eleven hold and four buy ratings. The average recommendation is hold. Four sell ratings were given, eleven hold ratings and four buy ratings were issued. Brokerages including several research firms have given their ratings.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. RXO's Earnings Report: A Deeper Dive into the Numbers

RXO's financial performance in the fourth quarter was marked by a 4% decline in brokerage volume and a 12% decline in truckload volume. The company's gross margin was 14.8%, and its adjusted EBITDA was $17 million. The actual EPS came out at -0.07, relative to estimates at -0.04. The revenue was impacted by the soft freight market and capacity reductions, but the company's managed transportation business continued to win, with over $200 million in new freight under management.

Publication Date: Feb -16

📋 Highlights
  • AI-Driven Operational Improvements: RXO's AI initiatives increased digital bids by 24% and introduced a new AI spot quote agent, targeting margin expansion and process efficiency.
  • Managed Transportation Growth: Generated over $200 million in new freight under management in Q4, reflecting strong demand for RXO's capacity optimization and customer relationship leverage.
  • Margin Compression and Market Challenges: Truckload gross profit per load fell 10% Q4–Q1 2025 due to tight market conditions, with brokerage gross margin expected at 11–13% in Q1 2026.
  • Restructuring and Cost Savings: Restructuring charges reduced 60% YoY to $30 million in 2026, focused on real estate consolidation and process improvements, with $70 million in Coyote acquisition synergies realized.

Operational Performance

The company's operational performance was mixed, with LTL volume increasing by 31% and truckload volume declining by 12%. The contract business increased by 100 basis points sequentially, while spot represented 28% of the truckload volume in the quarter. The company's AI efforts are driving improvements across four key pillars: volume, margin, productivity, and service. As Drew Wilkerson noted, "Our AI capabilities have resulted in a 24% increase in digital bids per carrier with a new AI-based load recommendation in RXO Connect."

Guidance and Outlook

For 2026, RXO expects to generate between $5 million and $12 million of adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter. The company also expects to make several strategic investments, including a new asset-based lending facility and a $450 million facility that replaces its previous $600 million revolver. The guidance suggests a challenging first quarter, with total brokerage volume expected to decline 5-10% year-over-year.

Valuation Metrics

Looking at the valuation metrics, RXO's P/E Ratio is -22.79, indicating that the company is currently unprofitable. The P/S Ratio is 0.39, which is relatively low compared to the industry average. The EV/EBITDA ratio is 85.53, suggesting that the company's enterprise value is significantly higher than its EBITDA. These metrics suggest that the market is pricing in significant growth potential, but also reflects the company's current challenges.

Growth Prospects

Despite the current challenges, RXO is taking aggressive actions to improve results, including reducing buy rate volatility, growing its SMB business, and growing stable sources of EBITDA. The company's focus on best-in-class service and continued investment in transformational AI capabilities is expected to drive significant long-term earnings and free cash flow growth. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 6.8%, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future performance.

3. NewsRoom

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RXO (NYSE:RXO) Stock Price Down 8.6% – What’s Next?

Mar -08

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Rxo Inc (NYSE:RXO) Given Average Rating of “Hold” by Brokerages

Mar -06

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Haoxin (NASDAQ:HXHX) vs. RXO (NYSE:RXO) Head-To-Head Survey

Mar -03

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Cary Street Partners Financial LLC Buys New Stake in Rxo Inc $RXO

Mar -01

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RXO Announces Participation at Upcoming Investor Conferences

Feb -24

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ZTO vs. RXO: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?

Feb -23

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RXO Releases the Latest Curve Freight Market Forecast

Feb -23

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RXO CEO on fears of AI disruption: This business is about scale, relationships, and service

Feb -19

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.36%)

6. Segments

Truck Brokerage

Expected Growth: 5%

RXO's truck brokerage growth is driven by increasing demand for flexible logistics solutions, strategic carrier partnerships, and investments in digital brokerage technology. Additionally, the company's focus on providing real-time visibility, data-driven insights, and exceptional customer service has enabled it to capitalize on market opportunities and drive growth.

Last Mile

Expected Growth: 7%

RXO's Last Mile segment growth is driven by increasing e-commerce demand, rising consumer expectations for fast and flexible delivery, and strategic partnerships with retailers and manufacturers. Additionally, investments in technology and operational efficiency have enabled RXO to scale and expand its last-mile capabilities, contributing to its 7% growth.

Managed Transportation

Expected Growth: 5%

RXO's Managed Transportation growth is driven by increasing demand for supply chain visibility, rising adoption of digital brokerage platforms, and growing need for cost savings and efficiency in logistics. Additionally, RXO's expertise in freight management, strategic partnerships, and investments in technology and data analytics are key contributors to its 5% growth.

Freight Forwarding

Expected Growth: 4%

RXO's freight forwarding growth is driven by increasing e-commerce demand, strategic carrier partnerships, and investments in digital brokerage platforms. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiency, cost savings, and customized logistics solutions for shippers also contribute to its growth. Furthermore, RXO's expansion into new markets and its ability to adapt to changing market conditions have also fueled its growth.

Eliminations

Expected Growth: 3%

RXO's 3% growth is driven by increasing demand for logistics services, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation, cost savings initiatives, and strong operational execution have contributed to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Truck Brokerage

RXO's truck brokerage service connects shippers with a network of qualified carriers, providing flexible and reliable transportation solutions.

Managed Transportation

RXO's managed transportation service provides customized logistics solutions, including freight audit and payment, to help shippers optimize their transportation networks.

Dedicated Capacity

RXO's dedicated capacity service provides shippers with a dedicated fleet of trucks and drivers, ensuring consistent and reliable transportation solutions.

Warehousing and Distribution

RXO's warehousing and distribution service provides shippers with secure and efficient storage and distribution solutions.

Last Mile Delivery

RXO's last mile delivery service provides shippers with fast and flexible delivery solutions, ensuring timely and efficient delivery to customers.

8. RXO, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

RXO, Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry, but the threat of substitutes is mitigated by the company's strong brand recognition and customer loyalty.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

RXO, Inc. has a large customer base, but the bargaining power of customers is high due to the availability of alternative service providers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

RXO, Inc. has a diverse supplier base, which reduces the bargaining power of suppliers. The company's strong relationships with suppliers also mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

While there are barriers to entry in the industry, RXO, Inc. faces a moderate threat from new entrants due to the potential for disruption from new technologies and business models.

Intensity Of Rivalry

RXO, Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry, and the intensity of rivalry is high due to the presence of several established players and the potential for new entrants.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 48.44%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 51.56%
Equity Cost 9.53%
WACC 6.82%
Leverage 93.94%

11. Quality Control: RXO, Inc. passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Exponent

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 1.2

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Schneider National

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Werner Enterprises

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Casella Waste Systems

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Saia

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 7.4

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
RXO

A-Score: 2.4/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 1.2

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

13.83$

Current Price

13.83$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows