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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Shift4 Payments, Inc.provides integrated payment processing and technology solutions in the United States.It provides omni-channel card acceptance and processing solutions, including credit, debit, contactless card, Europay, Mastercard and visa, QR Pay, and mobile wallets, as well as alternative payment methods; merchant acquiring; proprietary omni-channel gateway; complementary software integrations; integrated and mobile point-of-sale (POS) solutions; security and risk management solutions; reporting and analytical tools; and web-store design, hosting, shopping cart management, and fulfillment integration, as well as tokenization, payment device and chargeback management, fraud prevention, and gift card solutions.


The company also offers VenueNext that provides mobile ordering, countertop POS, and self-service kiosk services, as well as digital wallet to facilitate food and beverage, merchandise, and loyalty for stadium and entertainment venues; and Shift4Shop, which offers eCommerce solutions, including website builder, shopping cart, product catalog, order management, marketing, search engine optimization, secure hosting, and mobile webstores.In addition, it provides Lighthouse, a cloud-based business intelligence tool that includes customer engagement, social media management, online reputation management, scheduling, and product pricing, as well as reporting and analytics; SkyTab, a hybrid-cloud-based integrated POS solution; SkyTab Mobile, a mobile payment solution; and marketplace technology for integrations into third-party applications.Further, the company offers merchant management, training and education, marketing management, and incentives tracking solutions.


Additionally, it provides merchant underwriting, onboarding and activation, training, risk management, and support services; and software integrations and compliance management, and partner support and services.The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Allentown, Pennsylvania.

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1.b. Last Insights on FOUR

Shift4 Payments' recent performance has been impacted by unusual options trading activity, with a significant increase in put options. Despite robust revenue and earnings growth, including 62% YoY quarterly revenue growth driven by the Global Blue acquisition, investors are cautious. The company's Q3 financials showed 30% revenue growth and 19% organic growth, but margin contraction is a concern. Additionally, large investors such as Durable Capital and Wolf Hill Capital Management have reduced their stakes, selling $225 million and $78 million worth of shares, respectively.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Shift4's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Shift4's Q3 2025 earnings report was impressive, with gross revenue less network fees reaching $589 million, up 61% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA of $292 million, up 56%. The company's organic growth, excluding recent M&A, was 18% year-over-year, and volumes were $55 billion, in line with expectations. The blended spreads on payment volume remained stable at 62 basis points. The actual EPS came out at $1.47, beating estimates of $1.46.

Publication Date: Nov -09

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue & EBITDA Growth:: Gross revenue less network fees reached $589M (+61%), adjusted EBITDA hit $292M (+56%) in Q3 2025.
  • Organic Growth:: Excluding M&A, organic revenue growth was 18% YoY, aligning with medium-term targets.
  • Global Blue Acquisition Impact:: Contributed $156M to revenue and $68M to EBITDA, with integration progressing via a beta 3-in-1 terminal.
  • Free Cash Flow & Buybacks:: Adjusted free cash flow surged to $141M (48% conversion), alongside a $1B stock repurchase authorization.
  • 2025 Guidance Reaffirmed:: Full-year gross revenue less fees projected at $1.98B–$2.02B, with volume expected at $207B–$210B.

Financial Highlights

The company's adjusted free cash flow was a record $141 million, with a conversion rate of 48%. The net leverage was 3.2x, with guidance to not exceed 3.75x. The Board authorized a new $1 billion stock repurchase program, citing attractive valuation levels. The company's P/E Ratio is 20.34, and the EV/EBITDA is 19.69, indicating that the stock might be fairly valued.

Business Diversification and Growth

Shift4 is diversifying and scaling geographically and by industry, with notable wins in hotels, restaurants, and sports. The Global Blue acquisition, completed in July, contributed $156 million to gross revenue less network fees and $68 million to EBITDA. The integration is on track, with a 3-in-1 payment terminal in beta. The company is focused on compounding growth in free cash flow per share, aiming for $1 billion in run-rate adjusted free cash flow by 2027.

Guidance and Outlook

The company reaffirmed its full-year 2025 guidance within a narrowed range, with expected volume of $207-210 billion, gross revenue less network fees of $1.98-2.02 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of $970-985 million. The company expects to deliver growing levels of adjusted free cash flow, with a focus on enhancing long-term shareholder value. The guidance philosophy is to be cautious and informed by data, taking into account the nuances of the macro backdrop and industry trends.

Valuation and Shareholder Value

The company's share buyback announcement is a strong statement, with the company trading at levels last seen in December 2020, despite having 12x the EBITDA and accelerating free cash flow. The P/S Ratio is 2.14, and the Free Cash Flow Yield is 6.33%, indicating that the stock might be attractive. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -38.7%, which might be a concern.

3. NewsRoom

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Shift4 Payments Announces Pricing of €435 million Tack-On Offering of Senior Notes due 2033

Dec -03

Source: businesswire.com

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Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) Presents at UBS Global Technology and AI Conference 2025 Transcript

Dec -03

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Liberty Sports Group and Front Row Hospitality Announce Multi-Year Partnership with Shift4 to Power Commerce Across Sports, Entertainment, and Hospitality Properties

Dec -02

Source: businesswire.com

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Shift4 Payments Announces €435 million Tack-On Offering of Senior Notes due 2033

Dec -02

Source: businesswire.com

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Wasatch Global Opportunities Fund Q3 2025 Contributors And Detractors

Nov -27

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Shift4 Payments, Inc. $FOUR Stock Holdings Lifted by Boston Partners

Nov -27

Source: defenseworld.net

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Shift4 Payments Is On Sale And I Can't Stop Buying

Nov -25

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Shift4 Payments: Shifting Into A Must-Own Payments Name

Nov -24

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.50%)

6. Segments

Payments-based

Expected Growth: 10.47%

Shift4 Payments, Inc.'s 10.47% growth is driven by increasing adoption of its payment processing solutions, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. The company's focus on integrated payment solutions, omnichannel capabilities, and security features resonates with merchants seeking seamless payment experiences. Additionally, the growing demand for contactless payments and digital transactions fuels Shift4's growth.

Subscription and Other

Expected Growth: 10.88%

The 10.88% growth in Subscription and Other revenue from Shift4 Payments, Inc. is driven by increasing adoption of cloud-based payment solutions, expansion of existing customer relationships, and growth in new verticals such as hospitality and retail. Additionally, the company's strategic partnerships and investments in technology have enhanced its product offerings, leading to higher revenue from subscription-based services.

7. Detailed Products

SkyTab

A mobile payment solution that allows businesses to accept payments on-the-go

VT4

A point-of-sale (POS) system designed for restaurants and foodservice establishments

UTG

A payment gateway that enables online transactions and integrates with various e-commerce platforms

Lighthouse Business Management System

A comprehensive business management system that integrates with Shift4's payment processing solutions

4Go

A payment solution designed for businesses that need to process payments on-the-go

DOLLARS ON THE NET

A payment gateway that enables online transactions and integrates with various e-commerce platforms

8. Shift4 Payments, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Shift4 Payments, Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry, but the threat of substitutes is mitigated by the company's diversified product offerings and strong brand recognition.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Shift4 Payments, Inc. has a large and diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's products and services are often critical to its customers' operations, making it difficult for customers to negotiate prices or terms.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Shift4 Payments, Inc. relies on a network of suppliers to provide goods and services, but the company's scale and bargaining power mitigate the risk of supplier concentration. However, the company is still vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and price increases.

Threat Of New Entrants

The payment processing industry is highly competitive, and new entrants can easily disrupt the market with innovative products and services. Shift4 Payments, Inc. must continue to innovate and invest in research and development to stay ahead of new entrants.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The payment processing industry is highly competitive, with many established players and new entrants vying for market share. Shift4 Payments, Inc. must focus on differentiating its products and services and investing in marketing and sales efforts to maintain its market position.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 72.91%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 27.09%
Equity Cost 11.92%
WACC 6.11%
Leverage 269.10%

11. Quality Control: Shift4 Payments, Inc. passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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AvidXchange

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 6.3

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Altair Engineering

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 2.0

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 5.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 6.0

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Shift4 Payments

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 9.4

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 4.3

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Informatica

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 5.7

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UiPath

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 7.2

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 3.0

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SentinelOne

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 4.6

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.7

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

69.36$

Current Price

69.36$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows