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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Capstone Copper Corp.operates as a copper mining company with focus on the Americas.It owns and operates the Pinto Valley copper mine located in Arizona, the United States; the Cozamin copper-silver mine located in Zacatecas, Mexico; the Mantos Blancos copper-silver mine located in the Antofagasta region, Chile; and 70% of the Mantoverde copper-gold mine located in the Atacama region, Chile.


The company also owns the fully permitted Santo Domingo copper-gold project located northeast of Mantoverde in the Atacama region, Chile, as well as a portfolio of exploration properties in the Americas.The company is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on CS

Negative drivers behind Capstone Copper's recent stock performance include the company's revenue lagging expectations, as reported in its Full Year 2024 Earnings. Despite beating earnings per share expectations, revenue of $1.60b was up 19% from FY 2023 but fell short of analyst estimates. Additionally, the company's copper production costs of $2.56 per payable pound in Q4 2024 may have weighed on investor sentiment.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Capstone Copper's Q4 2025 Earnings: A Strong Finish to a Record Year

Capstone Copper reported a strong Q4 2025, with record quarterly revenue of $685 million driven by high copper production and favorable commodity prices. The company's adjusted net income attributable to shareholders more than doubled year-over-year to $75 million or $0.1373 per share, slightly below estimates of $0.1611 per share. The company's operating cash flow was also robust, reaching $287 million before working capital changes. As Raman Randhawa, SVP and CFO, highlighted, the company's financial results were driven by strong copper production and commodity prices.

Publication Date: Mar -04

📋 Highlights
  • Record Copper Production & Cost Efficiency:: Capstone achieved 58,300 tonnes in Q4 (C1 cash cost of $2.31/lb) and 225,000 tonnes for 2025 (C1 cash cost of $2.44/lb), a 22% annual increase.
  • Strong Financial Performance:: Q4 revenue hit $685M, adjusted net income surged to $75M ($0.10/share), and liquidity doubled to over $1B (cash: $304M, credit facility: $711M undrawn).
  • Mantoverde Optimization:: Projected to add 20,000 tonnes/year of copper production at $9,000/tonne capital intensity, with mill upgrades to sustain 45,000 tonnes/day by 2027.
  • Santo Domingo Partnership:: $300M financing secured via Orion collaboration, derisking project development, with a goal to sanction the project by Q4 2026.
  • 2026 Guidance & Exploration:: 200,000–230,000 tonnes of copper production ($2.45–$2.75/lb C1 cost), $70M exploration budget, and 70% production growth potential over next 3–5 years.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was equally impressive, with record consolidated copper production of 58,300 tonnes at a record low consolidated C1 cash cost of $2.31 per pound in Q4. For the full year 2025, Capstone achieved its production and cost guidance, producing a record 225,000 tonnes of copper at a consolidated C1 cash cost of $2.44 per pound, representing a 22% increase in output compared to 2024.

Growth Prospects

The company's growth prospects are promising, with a permitted growth pipeline that has the potential to increase production by 70% and decrease unit costs by 30%. The Mantoverde optimized project is expected to deliver near-term production growth, adding 20,000 tonnes per annum of copper production at a low capital intensity of around $9,000 per tonne. The company's exploration efforts will focus on the Mantoverde exploration program, with an expanded exploration budget of $70 million for 2026.

Valuation

Using the company's current valuation metrics, we can assess what's priced in. The P/E Ratio is 22.26, EV/EBITDA is 8.8, and P/S Ratio is 3.25. With analysts estimating next year's revenue growth at 17.8%, the current valuation appears reasonable. However, the actual EPS of $0.1373 was below estimates, which may impact the stock's performance.

Outlook

The company's guidance for 2026 includes total consolidated copper production of 200,000 to 230,000 tonnes at C1 cash cost between $2.45 and $2.75 per payable pound of copper. With a strong copper price environment and growing consensus of increasing future demand, Capstone Copper is well-positioned for future growth. As Cashel Meagher, President and CEO, stated, the company is eager to unlock significant value through exploration and build a world-class long-life copper district in Chile's Tier 1 Atacama region.

3. NewsRoom

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Copper set for tight market in 2026 and gold miners have more room to run, says UBS

Dec -12

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

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Sintana Energy advances Challenger acquisition with court, TSXV approvals

Dec -12

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

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RBC Says Copper Prices Surge to New Highs on Tight Supply, Trade Disruptions

Dec -02

Source:

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Royalties Inc. Reports Q3 Results For September 30, 2025 and Success on Capstone Copper Lawsuit for 2% NSR on Cozamin Mine

Nov -28

Source:

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Capstone Copper (TSX:CS): Assessing Valuation After Strong Earnings and Profit Growth

Nov -02

Source:

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Capstone Copper Maintained at Buy at Stifel Canada Following Q3 Results; Price Target Kept at C$17.00

Oct -31

Source:

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Capstone: Q3 Earnings Snapshot

Oct -30

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Capstone Copper Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results

Oct -30

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (6.35%)

6. Segments

Property & Casualty

Expected Growth: 7.87%

Capstone Copper Corp.'s Property & Casualty segment growth of 7.87% is driven by increasing copper prices, rising demand from electric vehicle and renewable energy industries, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiency, cost reduction, and exploration activities have contributed to the growth.

Life

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Capstone Copper Corp.'s 4.65% growth is driven by increasing copper prices, strong demand from electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors, and the company's successful cost-reduction initiatives. Additionally, its focus on high-grade copper deposits and strategic acquisitions have contributed to its growth momentum.

Health

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Capstone Copper Corp.'s 4.83% growth is driven by increasing copper prices, strong demand from electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors, and the company's successful cost-reduction initiatives. Additionally, Capstone's focus on high-grade copper deposits and its robust project pipeline contribute to its growth momentum.

Asset Management

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Capstone Copper Corp.'s 4.83% growth in Asset Management is driven by increasing copper prices, strategic acquisitions, and operational efficiencies. The company's focus on cost reduction, exploration, and development of high-grade copper deposits also contributes to its growth. Additionally, its diversified asset base and strong balance sheet provide a solid foundation for future expansion.

Banking

Expected Growth: 10.27%

Capstone Copper Corp.'s 10.27% growth is driven by increasing copper prices, strong operational performance, and strategic acquisitions. The company's focus on cost reduction, exploration, and development of high-grade copper deposits also contributes to its growth. Additionally, a favorable demand outlook, driven by the electrification of transportation and renewable energy, supports the company's upward trajectory.

7. Detailed Products

Copper Cathodes

High-quality copper cathodes produced through the electrolytic refining process, used in various industrial applications such as electrical wiring, electronics, and construction.

Copper Concentrates

Concentrated copper ore extracted from mining operations, used as a raw material for smelting and refining.

Gold and Silver By-Products

Precious metals extracted as by-products of copper mining, used in jewelry, coins, and other industrial applications.

Molybdenum Concentrates

Concentrated molybdenum ore extracted from mining operations, used in the production of steel alloys and other industrial applications.

8. Capstone Copper Corp.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Capstone Copper Corp. is medium due to the availability of alternative metals and materials that can be used in place of copper.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Capstone Copper Corp. is low due to the company's strong market position and the lack of concentration among its customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Capstone Copper Corp. is medium due to the presence of several major suppliers of copper ore and the company's dependence on these suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Capstone Copper Corp. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the copper mining industry, including the need for significant capital investment and regulatory approvals.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Capstone Copper Corp. is high due to the presence of several major copper mining companies and the competitive nature of the industry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 30.38%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 69.62%
Equity Cost 15.63%
WACC 12.08%
Leverage 43.63%

11. Quality Control: Capstone Copper Corp. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
B2Gold

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 4.3

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Royal Gold

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 1.8

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 8.4

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 7.0

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Lundin Mining

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 2.9

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 4.7

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Hudbay Minerals

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Olin

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 7.1

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 2.4

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Capstone Copper

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 2.2

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

12.75$

Current Price

12.75$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows