Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Lundin Mining Corporation, a diversified base metals mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties in Brazil, Chile, Portugal, Sweden, and the United States.It primarily produces copper, zinc, nickel, and gold, as well as lead, silver, and other metals.The company holds 100% interests in the Chapada mine located in Brazil; the Neves-Corvo mine located in Portugal; the Eagle mine located in the United States; and the Zinkgruvan mine located in Sweden.


It also holds 80% interests in the Candelaria and Ojos del Salado mining complex located in Chile.The company was formerly known as South Atlantic Ventures Ltd.and changed its name to Lundin Mining Corporation in August 2004.


Lundin Mining Corporation was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on LUN

Lundin Mining Corporation's recent performance was driven by several positive factors. The company's upgraded rating to Buy from Hold by TD Securities, citing its strong position to navigate macro uncertainty, contributed to the positive sentiment. Additionally, the sale of Neves-Corvo and Zinkgruvan operations to Boliden for $1.40 billion provided a significant cash influx. Furthermore, the announcement of the 2024 Sustainability Report highlighted the company's commitment to environmental and social responsibility. The initial Mineral Resource estimate at Filo Del Sol, demonstrating one of the world's largest copper, gold, and silver resources, also generated excitement.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Lundin Mining's Strong 2025 Performance Sets Stage for Future Growth

Lundin Mining delivered a record financial performance in 2025, with revenue reaching $4.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.9 billion from continuing operations. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.25, significantly beating estimates of $0.3137. The company's cash cost for the full year was $1.87 per pound, below the bottom end of its original guidance. According to Teitur Poulsen, Chief Financial Officer, the company generated close to $1.4 billion in revenue during the fourth quarter, including $52 million from discontinued operations.

Publication Date: Feb -24

📋 Highlights
  • Record Revenue and EBITDA: Lundin Mining achieved $4.5B in revenue and $1.9B adjusted EBITDA in 2025, marking historical financial peaks.
  • Shareholder Returns: $106M in dividends and $256M in share repurchases (15.1M shares) distributed to shareholders in 2025.
  • Copper Production Milestone: Delivered 331,000 tonnes of copper in 2025, with Q4 output at 87,000 tonnes—the highest since acquiring Caserones in 2023.
  • 2026 Guidance: Forecasts 310,000–335,000 tonnes of copper production and cash costs of $1.90–$2.10 per pound in 2026.

Operational Highlights Drive Performance

The strong financial performance was driven by operational highlights, including copper production of 331,000 tonnes, led by strong performance from Caserones and consistency from Candelaria and Chapada. Gold production was 142,000 ounces for the year. The company's operational results exceeded original guidance for copper production and met revised guidance across all metals.

Guidance and Outlook

For 2026, Lundin Mining forecasts copper production to be 310,000 to 335,000 tonnes on a consolidated basis, with a net increase of approximately 15,000 tonnes over the 2-year period. Consolidated cash cost for 2026 is projected to range from $1.90 to $2.10 a pound of copper after accounting for by-product credits. Total sustaining capital expenditures are forecast to be $550 million.

Growth Opportunities

The company is exploring growth opportunities, including the Sáva project, which is expected to increase copper production by 17,000 tonnes per annum and gold production by 32,000 ounces per year over 5 years. A sanctioning decision is targeted for the second half of 2026, with construction of the new ball mill beginning by the end of 2026 or early 2027. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 1.2%.

Valuation

With a P/E Ratio of 20.1 and an EV/EBITDA of 15.31, Lundin Mining's valuation suggests that the market is pricing in a certain level of growth. The company's ROE of 21.95% and ROIC of 13.98% indicate a strong return on equity and invested capital. The Dividend Yield is 0.48%, and the Free Cash Flow Yield is 2.38%, providing a relatively attractive return for investors.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

Copper Prices and Mining Stocks Fell Hard on Iran War. Why the Dip Is Worth Buying.

Mar -04

Source:

Card image cap

How-to advice on everything from mortgages to portfolios: FP Video

Feb -28

Source:

Card image cap

Assessing Lundin Mining’s Valuation After Earnings Rebound And Progress At The Vicuña Copper Project

Feb -28

Source:

Card image cap

Lundin Mining Rebrand Highlights Copper Focus And Vicuña Driven Growth Potential

Feb -27

Source:

Card image cap

Lundin Mining Increases Existing Credit Facility to US$4.5 Billion

Feb -26

Source:

Card image cap

Lundin on 5 forces pushing copper demand higher

Feb -24

Source:

Card image cap

Lundin Mining Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

Feb -24

Source:

Card image cap

Bet on These Copper ETFs as Red Metal Demand Expected to Surge 50%

Feb -23

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.71%)

6. Segments

Candelaria

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Candelaria's 4.65% growth is driven by increased copper production, improved ore grades, and enhanced operational efficiency. Additionally, Lundin Mining's strategic investments in mine development and exploration have contributed to the growth. The mine's proximity to existing infrastructure and favorable geological conditions have also supported the expansion.

Caserones

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Caserones' 4.83% growth is driven by increasing copper prices, strong operational performance, and successful execution of debottlenecking projects. Additionally, Lundin Mining's focus on cost reduction initiatives and exploration activities have contributed to the segment's growth. The mine's high-grade copper ore and proximity to infrastructure also support its expansion.

Chapada

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Chapada's 4.83% growth is driven by increasing copper prices, strong operational performance, and successful cost-saving initiatives. Additionally, the mine's life extension project and exploration activities are expected to contribute to future growth. The Brazilian real's depreciation against the US dollar also positively impacts revenue.

Neves-Corvo

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Neves-Corvo's 4.65% growth is driven by increasing copper prices, successful zinc expansion projects, and improved operational efficiencies. The mine's high-grade copper and zinc reserves, combined with Lundin Mining's cost-reduction initiatives, have also contributed to the growth. Additionally, the company's focus on exploration and development of nearby deposits has enhanced the mine's production potential.

Eagle

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Eagle mine's 4.65% growth driven by increased nickel and copper production, improved ore grades, and enhanced mining efficiency. Strong demand for electric vehicle batteries and stainless steel supports nickel prices, while copper benefits from infrastructure development and renewable energy growth.

Zinkgruvan

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Zinkgruvan's 4.65% growth is driven by increased zinc prices, improved ore grades, and enhanced mining efficiency. The mine's proximity to existing infrastructure and low operating costs also contribute to its growth. Additionally, Lundin Mining's focus on operational excellence and exploration initiatives have optimized production and extended the mine's lifespan.

7. Detailed Products

Copper

Lundin Mining Corporation is a significant producer of copper, a highly conductive and ductile metal used in various industrial applications, including electrical wiring, plumbing, and architecture.

Zinc

Lundin Mining Corporation extracts zinc, a versatile metal used in galvanizing other metals, die-casting, and as an alloying element in various industrial processes.

Nickel

Lundin Mining Corporation produces nickel, a corrosion-resistant metal used in stainless steel production, alloys, and electroplating.

Gold

Lundin Mining Corporation extracts gold, a highly valued precious metal used in jewelry, coins, and other decorative items.

Silver

Lundin Mining Corporation produces silver, a highly conductive and reflective metal used in electronics, solar panels, and jewelry.

8. Lundin Mining Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Lundin Mining Corporation is medium due to the availability of alternative metals and minerals in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Lundin Mining Corporation is low due to the company's strong market position and limited customer concentration.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Lundin Mining Corporation is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers and the company's ability to negotiate prices.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Lundin Mining Corporation is low due to the high barriers to entry in the mining industry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Lundin Mining Corporation is high due to the competitive nature of the mining industry, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 23.05%
Debt Cost 7.25%
Equity Weight 76.95%
Equity Cost 13.03%
WACC 11.70%
Leverage 29.95%

11. Quality Control: Lundin Mining Corporation passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Lundin Gold

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 1.9

Growth: 9.1

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Lundin Mining

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 2.9

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Steel Dynamics

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 3.5

Growth: 7.1

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Boise Cascade

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Hudbay Minerals

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Capstone Copper

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 2.2

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

39.19$

Current Price

39.19$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows