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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Nutrien Ltd.provides crop inputs and services.It offers potash, nitrogen, phosphate, and sulfate products; and financial solutions.


The company also distributes crop nutrients, crop protection products, seeds, and merchandise products through approximately 2,000 retail locations in the United States, Canada, South America, and Australia.In addition, it provides services directly to growers through a network of farm centers in North America, South America, and Australia.The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on NTR

Nutrien Ltd.'s recent performance was driven by strong fertilizer demand, cost-cutting initiatives, and strategic acquisitions. The company's shares have seen a significant price rise, with a 23.7% increase in three months, as investors capitalize on its efforts to expand its footprint and reduce costs. Additionally, the company's quarterly dividend of US$0.545 per share, announced on May 7, 2025, is expected to provide a stable return to shareholders.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Nutrien's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Nutrien reported a robust financial performance in Q3 2025, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $1.4 billion, a 42% increase compared to the prior year. The company's EPS came in at $1.37, beating analyst estimates of $1.26. Revenue growth was driven by record upstream fertilizer sales volumes, improved reliability, and higher retail earnings. The company's ammonia utilization rate stood at 94% through the first 9 months, up 7 percentage points from the previous year. Nutrien's Downstream Retail business delivered adjusted EBITDA of $230 million in the third quarter, up 52% from the prior year.

Publication Date: Nov -09

📋 Highlights
  • Record Potash Sales Guidance:: Raised 2025 potash shipment projection to 73-75 million tonnes, a record for the company.
  • Ammonia Utilization Surge:: Achieved 94% ammonia utilization rate in Q1-Q3 2025, up 7 percentage points from prior year.
  • Dividend & Share Buybacks:: Allocated $1.2 billion to dividends and repurchases in Q1-Q3 2025, a 42% increase YoY.
  • EBITDA Growth:: Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA reached $1.4 billion, up 42% YoY, driven by strong potash and nitrogen demand.
  • Phosphate Strategic Shift:: Phosphate contributes only 6% of EBITDA; exploring reconfiguration, partnerships, or sale to optimize reserves.

Segmental Performance

Nutrien's potash sales volume guidance was raised to 14 million to 14.5 million tonnes, supported by strong offshore demand. In nitrogen, the company generated adjusted EBITDA of $556 million in the third quarter, an increase compared to last year due to higher net selling prices and higher sales volumes. The phosphate business, however, is undergoing a strategic review, with options including the sale, partnership, or reconfiguration of the business.

Outlook and Guidance

Nutrien expects a strong crop nutrient demand in 2026, with nitrogen volumes up, potash volumes flattish, and phosphate volumes potentially down. The company is constructive on potash heading into 2026, driven by fundamentals such as crop nutrient demand, affordability, and channel inventories. As Mark Thompson, CFO, noted, "We're seeing strong crop yields, and our growers are replenishing their nutrient stores, which should drive growth in our Retail business."

Valuation and Dividend

Nutrien's current valuation metrics indicate a P/E Ratio of 20.34, P/B Ratio of 1.1, and Dividend Yield of 3.82%. The company's commitment to returning cash to shareholders is evident in its dividend policy and share repurchase program. With a target debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.5x at mid-cycle prices, Nutrien is expected to repay debt before introducing flexibility into its capital allocation and share repurchase program.

Growth Prospects

Analysts estimate Nutrien's revenue growth at 1.8% for the next year. The company's ongoing strategic review of its phosphate business and efforts to optimize its portfolio are expected to drive growth. With a strong crop nutrient demand expected in 2026, Nutrien is well-positioned to capitalize on the trend.

3. NewsRoom

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Nutrien's Shares Rise 11% in a Month: What's Driving the Stock?

Dec -04

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Assessing Nutrien’s Valuation After Its 27.9% One Year Share Price Rebound

Dec -03

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Opinion: Don’t fight protectionism with protectionism

Dec -03

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Opinion: Nutrien’s bypass of the Port of Vancouver underscores need for change

Dec -02

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Adecoagro Announces Submission of Binding Offer to Acquire the Remaining 50% of Profertil S.A.

Dec -01

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Reasons Why You Should Hold Nutrien Stock in Your Portfolio Now

Dec -01

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Nutrien - Fertilizer Companies Are Attractively Valued Now

Nov -29

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Nutrien (TSX:NTR): Does Recent Momentum Signal a Valuation Opportunity?

Nov -28

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.78%)

6. Segments

Retail

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Nutrien Ltd.'s Retail segment growth of 4.83% is driven by increasing demand for crop inputs and services, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on digital agriculture and sustainability initiatives has enhanced its offerings, attracting more customers and driving revenue growth.

Nitrogen

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Nitrogen segment growth of 4.65% driven by increasing global demand for ammonia and urea, supported by rising crop prices, favorable weather conditions, and Nutrien's strategic expansion into high-growth markets, such as Brazil and India, as well as its cost-competitive production capabilities.

Potash

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Nutrien's Potash segment growth of 4.65% is driven by increasing global demand for fertilizers, particularly in Latin America and Asia, coupled with the company's cost reduction initiatives and strategic pricing. Additionally, Nutrien's strong distribution network and high-quality potash products contribute to its market share growth.

Phosphate

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Nutrien Ltd.'s phosphate segment growth of 4.83% is driven by increasing global demand for fertilizers, particularly in Latin America and Asia, coupled with the company's strategic expansion into high-growth markets. Additionally, Nutrien's focus on operational efficiency and cost savings initiatives has enabled it to maintain a competitive edge in the market.

7. Detailed Products

Potash

A key ingredient in fertilizers, helping to promote healthy plant growth and increase crop yields.

Nitrogen

A vital nutrient for plant growth, used in fertilizers to promote healthy plant development and increase crop yields.

Phosphate

A key nutrient for plant growth, used in fertilizers to promote healthy root development and increase crop yields.

Crop Protection Products

A range of products used to protect crops from pests, diseases, and weeds, ensuring healthy plant growth and maximizing yields.

Seed and Traits

A range of high-performance seeds and traits, designed to improve crop yields and resistance to pests and diseases.

Retail Services

A range of services and products provided to farmers, including crop inputs, agronomic advice, and financial services.

8. Nutrien Ltd.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Nutrien Ltd. is medium due to the availability of alternative products and services in the agricultural industry.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Nutrien Ltd. is low due to the company's strong brand reputation and diversified product offerings.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Nutrien Ltd. is medium due to the company's dependence on a few key suppliers for raw materials.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Nutrien Ltd. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the agricultural industry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Nutrien Ltd. is high due to the competitive nature of the agricultural industry, with several established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 33.31%
Debt Cost 8.77%
Equity Weight 66.69%
Equity Cost 8.77%
WACC 8.77%
Leverage 49.95%

11. Quality Control: Nutrien Ltd. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
CVR Partners

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Nutrien

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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CF Industries

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Corteva

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Nucor

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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LyondellBasell

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 2.7

Quality: 2.6

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

84.94$

Current Price

84.94$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows