Telenor ASA (TEL.OL) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Telenor ASA, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a telecommunication company worldwide.Its principal products and services include mobile communication, fixed line communication, and broadcasting services.The company's mobile communication services comprise voice, data, Internet, and content services, as well as customer equipment and messaging.

Its fixed line services consist of telephony, Internet and TV, and leased lines, as well as data and managed services; and broadcasting and data communication services through satellite, terrestrial radio, and TV transmission.The company also provides machine-to-machine communication, as well as internet based services and financial services.Telenor ASA was founded in 1855 and is headquartered in Fornebu, Norway.

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1.b. Last Insights on TEL

Telenor's recent performance has been driven by several positive factors. The company's decision to exit its Asia operations, including the sale of its 30.3% stake in Thailand's True Corporation for $3.9 billion, reflects its strategic shift towards a Nordic-focused, high-return connectivity strategy. Additionally, Telenor reported strong Q4 2025 results, showcasing solid Nordic growth and a simplified portfolio. The company also announced a NOK 15 billion share buyback program, which will likely enhance shareholder value. Pareto upgraded Telenor to Buy from Hold, citing its long-term cash generation potential.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	170.5
Change Percentage	0.89%
Open	169.2
Previous Close	169
Market Cap ( Millions)	233209
Volume	145558
Year High	178.7
Year Low	134.7
M A 50	160.82
M A 200	158.23

FCF Yield	8.27%
Dividend Yield	5.63%
ROE	11.81%
Debt / Equity	158.15%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	253.09%
Price To Book	3.24
Price Earnings Ratio	28.32
Price To FCF	12.09
Price To sales	2.91
EV / EBITDA	8.62

2. Telenor's Q4 2025 Results: Strong Operational Momentum and Disciplined Execution

Telenor's Q4 2025 results showcased a robust financial performance, with EBITDA growing by 11.7% to NOK 8.6 billion, driven by a strong performance in the Nordics. The company's adjusted EPS was NOK 2.21, a significant uplift from last year, beating analyst estimates of NOK 1.99. The group's ROCE came in at 9.2% for the last 12 months, while the leverage ratio closed the year at 2.2x, returning to its target range. The CapEx to sales ratio was 15.5%, 4 percentage points lower than in the same period last year.

Publication Date: Feb -08

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    EBITDA Growth::
                                                NOK 8.6 billion (+11.7%) driven by Nordic performance.
Free Cash Flow::
                                                NOK 12.9 billion annually, aligning with NOK 13 billion outlook.
Nordic Service Revenue::
                                                2.8% growth; EBITDA up 8.7% via upselling and pricing.
Asia Exit Strategy::
                                                Sold Telenor Pakistan (NOK 4.6B) and announced True Thailand exit.
Shareholder Returns::
                                                16th consecutive dividend increase (NOK 9.7/share) and NOK 15B buyback plan.

                                

Nordic Operations Drive Growth

In the Nordics, service revenue growth was 2.8%, driven by a more-for-more strategy, with Norway, Sweden, and Denmark contributing to the growth. EBITDA growth in the Nordics was 8.7%, supported by upselling, pricing, and product mix. Sweden saw growth driven by 5G broadband net adds, with 12,000 additions in the quarter, contributing to growth in gross profit and EBITDA.

Asian Operations and Strategic Developments

In Asia, Grameenphone delivered organic service revenue growth of 3.4% in the quarter, while the sale of Telenor Pakistan was completed. The company also announced a two-stage deal to exit Thailand with the sale of its ownership in True, representing significant value creation for shareholders. Telenor expects a gradual macro upswing in Bangladesh but has modest expectations.

Outlook and Guidance

Telenor expects low single-digit growth in service revenues in the Nordic, mid-single-digit growth in Nordic EBITDA, and a CapEx to sales ratio of around 14% in 2026. The company forecasts free cash flows before M&A to be between NOK 10 billion and NOK 11 billion. The medium-term Nordic EBITDA outlook does not factor in significant headwinds beyond normal competitive behavior.

Valuation and Return of Capital

With a P/E Ratio of 22.24 and an EV/EBITDA of 8.73, the market appears to be pricing in a certain level of growth. Telenor has announced a significant return of capital to shareholders, including a proposed ordinary dividend and a NOK 15 billion buyback. The company will consider returning additional capital to shareholders if value-accretive M&A opportunities do not arise. The Dividend Yield stands at 5.53%, making it an attractive proposition for income investors.

3. NewsRoom

Super Micro Computer Alliances Spotlight AI Growth Potential And Valuation Discount

Mar -03

Source:

Supermicro Expands Support for AI-RAN and Sovereign AI Solutions to Deliver High-Performance, Efficient, and Scalable AI Infrastructure

Mar -02

Source:

Red Hat and Telenor AI Factory Bring Scale, Sovereignty and Control to Production AI

Mar -02

Source:

Telenor ASA (TELNY)'s Technical Outlook is Bright After Key Golden Cross

Feb -23

Source:

Telenor reports strong results and announces NOK 15 billion share buyback programme

Feb -06

Source:

Telia, Lyse to combine Norwegian mobile radio networks to save costs

Feb -02

Source:

Telenor Exits Asia Operations to Focus More on the Nordic Region

Jan -26

Source:

Assessing Telenor (OB:TEL) Valuation After Recent Share Price Momentum And Intrinsic Value Gap

Jan -25

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.31%)

6. Segments

Nordics

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Nordics' 2.5% growth in Telenor ASA is driven by increasing mobile data consumption, 5G adoption, and rising demand for digital services. Additionally, the region's high smartphone penetration, growing e-commerce, and investments in IoT and smart cities contribute to the growth. Furthermore, Telenor's focus on cost savings, network modernization, and customer experience enhancements also support the segment's growth.

Asia

Expected Growth: 1.8%

Telenor ASA's 1.8% growth in Asia is driven by increasing mobile penetration, particularly in rural areas, and rising demand for data services. Additionally, the region's growing middle class and urbanization are contributing to increased mobile adoption and usage, further fueling growth.

Amp

Expected Growth: 2.2%

Amp's 2.2% growth is driven by increasing demand for digital services, Telenor's strong brand presence, and strategic investments in 5G network expansion. Additionally, growing adoption of IoT and cloud services, as well as cost savings from operational efficiency initiatives, contribute to the segment's growth.

Infrastructure

Expected Growth: 1.9%

Telenor ASA's 1.9% infrastructure growth is driven by increasing demand for 5G network upgrades, expansion into new markets, and growing adoption of IoT devices. Additionally, the company's focus on modernizing its network infrastructure and investing in fiber-optic cables has contributed to this growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 1.5%

Telenor ASA's 'Other' segment growth of 1.5% is driven by increasing demand for digital services, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on cost optimization and operational efficiency has contributed to the growth. Furthermore, the rise of IoT and 5G technologies has created new revenue streams, supporting the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Mobile Services

Telenor ASA provides mobile services including voice, data, and SMS to individual and business customers.

Fixed Line Services

Telenor ASA offers fixed line services including broadband, TV, and telephony to residential and business customers.

IoT Services

Telenor ASA provides IoT services including device management, data analytics, and connectivity solutions for businesses.

Cloud Services

Telenor ASA offers cloud services including infrastructure, platform, and software as a service for businesses.

Cyber Security Services

Telenor ASA provides cyber security services including threat detection, incident response, and security consulting for businesses.

Data Analytics Services

Telenor ASA offers data analytics services including data management, analytics, and insights for businesses.

8. Telenor ASA's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Telenor ASA operates in a highly competitive industry, and there are several substitutes available to customers. However, the company's strong brand presence and wide range of services help to mitigate the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Telenor ASA has a large customer base, but individual customers do not have significant bargaining power. The company's services are essential for many customers, which reduces their bargaining power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Telenor ASA relies on a few large suppliers for network equipment and services. While these suppliers have some bargaining power, the company's size and scale help to mitigate this threat.

Threat Of New Entrants

The telecommunications industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles. This makes it difficult for new entrants to challenge Telenor ASA's market position.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The telecommunications industry is highly competitive, with several large players competing for market share. Telenor ASA faces intense competition from rivals such as Telia Company and Tele2 AB.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	61.31%
Debt Cost	3.95%
Equity Weight	38.69%
Equity Cost	4.45%
WACC	4.14%
Leverage	158.50%

11. Quality Control: Telenor ASA passed 3 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Deb

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Telekom Austria

A-Score: 7.0/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Orange Polska

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 7.1

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Proximus

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 9.1

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Telenor

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 4.9

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

KPN

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Tele2

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

-6.78%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

4.14%

Telenor ASA - NO0010063308

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on TEL

1.c. Company Highlights

Higher Yield

Less Volatile

Lower Growth

Earnings Beats

Revenues Miss

Stable Momentum

Fairly Valued

Revenues Beats

Earnings Miss

Strong Momentum

2. Telenor's Q4 2025 Results: Strong Operational Momentum and Disciplined Execution

Nordic Operations Drive Growth

Asian Operations and Strategic Developments

Outlook and Guidance

Valuation and Return of Capital

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.31%)

6. Segments

Nordics

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Asia

Expected Growth: 1.8%

Amp

Expected Growth: 2.2%

Infrastructure

Expected Growth: 1.9%

Other

Expected Growth: 1.5%

7. Detailed Products

Mobile Services

Fixed Line Services

IoT Services

Cloud Services

Cyber Security Services

Data Analytics Services

8. Telenor ASA's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Telenor ASA passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

170.5$

Current Price

170.5$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA