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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Orange Polska S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in Poland.It offers mobile and fixed telecommunications services, including calls, messaging, content, and access to the Internet and TV; information and communications technology, leased lines, and other value-added telecommunication services; and data transmission services.The company also sells telecommunications equipment and electrical energy; constructs telecommunications infrastructure; and provides financial services.


In addition, it is involved in the development, management, and maintenance of networks; provision of training, hotel, insurance agent, and charity foundation services, as well as manages employee pension funds; point of sale rental; and monitoring of alarm signals.The company was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Warsaw, Poland.Orange Polska S.A. is a subsidiary of Orange S.A.

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1.b. Last Insights on OPL

Orange Polska S.A.'s recent strength is driven by its attractive dividend yield, which has become increasingly appealing in a volatile European market. The company's solid Q4 2023 earnings, with a 4.3% year-over-year revenue growth, have likely boosted investor confidence. Additionally, Orange Polska's efforts to reduce debt and improve operational efficiency have been well-received by analysts, with Credit Suisse upgrading the stock to "Outperform" in January.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Orange Polska: Solid Q1 Momentum Amid Market Volatility

Orange Polska delivered a robust Q1 2026 performance, posting a 3% revenue increase to PLN 1.3 billion, buoyed by steady core telco and wholesale dynamics. EBITDA rose 9.5% year‑on‑year to PLN 480 million, propelled by a one‑time VAT‑relief gain, while net income surged to nearly PLN 300 million, up more than 50% YoY. The company’s EPS of 0.2058 eclipsed analyst expectations of 0.09, underscoring efficient cost management and strong cash flows. With a P/E of 21.88 and a P/B of 1.36, the stock trades at a modest premium, reflecting market confidence in its growth trajectory.

Publication Date: Apr -26

📋 Highlights
  • EBITDA Growth Surpasses Expectations: EBITDA surged 9.5% YoY, boosted by a one-time PLN 300 million VAT relief gain and strong core operations.
  • Net Income Jumps Over 50% YoY: Net income reached nearly PLN 300 million, reflecting improved profitability and cost management.
  • Fiber and Mobile Subscribers Expand: Fiber customer base grew 10% YoY, while mobile added over 70,000 net subscribers in Q1 2026.
  • ARPO and Customer Base Growth: 4% YoY increase in average revenue per customer (ARPO) and 4% overall customer base expansion across all services.
  • IT&IS Revenue Volatility: IT&IS segment projects 5-7% CAGR through 2028, despite short-term challenges from memory chip market fluctuations.

Revenue & Core Telco Growth

Core telecom services grew almost 5% YoY, with prepaid dynamics moderating after the 2025 spike. The fiber customer base expanded 10% year‑on‑year, while mobile additions exceeded 70,000, demonstrating a balanced portfolio. This mix supports a projected core telco revenue growth of 4.8% in Q2, aligning with the company’s 3%‑5% EBITDA guidance for the full year.

EBITDA & Net Income Surge

The 9.5% jump in EBITDA reflects disciplined cost controls and the one‑time VAT relief, while the net income leap highlights margin improvement. Operating leverage is evident as EBITDA margin climbed to 37%, reinforcing the firm’s ability to convert revenue growth into profitability.

Customer Base & ARPO Expansion

Customer growth of 4% coupled with a 4% ARPO lift signals rising demand and price resilience. Fiber and mobile segments drive this uptick, with fiber’s 10% YoY increase indicating strong infrastructure adoption. These metrics underpin the company’s expectation to hit the upper end of its 2026 EBITDA guidance.

Wholesale Dynamics & CapEx Impact

Wholesale revenue grew 6% despite the loss of a national roaming contract, showcasing diversification. Jacek Kunicki noted that adverse weather impacted CapEx by PLN 70 million, a manageable hit that the company has absorbed without disrupting its transformation agenda. The cost‑transformation process aims to keep indirect costs flat YoY, preserving margin integrity.

B2B & IT&IS Outlook

B2B ICT sales hit an inflection point, though equipment sales lagged due to lower high‑end handset demand and selective customer choices. IT&IS, a volatile yet high‑growth arm, is projected to grow 5–7% CAGR through 2028, supported by EU funding and resilient project pipelines despite memory‑chip volatility.

Strategic Focus & Guidance

Orange Polska remains committed to its “Lead the Future” strategy, with no definitive stance on acquiring a major Polish telco. The company’s guidance—3%‑5% EBITDA growth for the year—remains anchored in solid core operations and disciplined CapEx, while the volatile IT&IS landscape is managed through adaptive project selection and price‑volatility mitigation strategies.

3. NewsRoom

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Orange Polska SA (STU:TPA1) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Start with Robust EBITDA Growth

Apr -27

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Orange Polska SA (STU:TPA1) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Surpassing Growth Expectations ...

Feb -25

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Societe Generale: shares & voting rights as of 31 August 2025

Sep -09

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.98%)

6. Segments

Mobile Only Services

Expected Growth: 1.8%

Orange Polska S.A.'s Mobile Only Services growth of 1.8% is driven by increasing mobile penetration in Poland, rising demand for data-intensive services, and competitive pricing strategies. Additionally, the company's focus on network quality and expansion of 4G and 5G coverage has attracted more customers, contributing to the growth.

Convergent Services (Consumer Market)

Expected Growth: 2.2%

Orange Polska S.A.'s Convergent Services in the Consumer Market grew 2.2% driven by increasing demand for bundled services, expansion of 4G and fiber-optic networks, and competitive pricing strategies. Additionally, the rise of streaming services and online content consumption fueled growth in data and digital services.

Equipment

Expected Growth: 1.5%

Orange Polska S.A.'s equipment segment growth of 1.5% is driven by increasing demand for high-speed internet and digital services, government initiatives for digital infrastructure development, and growing adoption of IoT devices. Additionally, the company's strategic investments in network modernization and expansion of its fiber-optic infrastructure are contributing to the growth.

Information Technology and Integration Services

Expected Growth: 3.0%

Orange Polska S.A.'s 3.0% growth in Information Technology and Integration Services is driven by increasing demand for digital transformation, cloud adoption, and cybersecurity solutions among Polish enterprises. Additionally, the company's strategic partnerships, investments in 5G and IoT, and expansion of its data center capabilities are contributing to its growth momentum.

Wholesale - Mobile

Expected Growth: 1.9%

Orange Polska S.A.'s Wholesale - Mobile segment growth of 1.9% is driven by increasing demand for mobile data services, expansion of 4G and 5G network coverage, and growing adoption of IoT solutions among enterprises. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation and partnerships with major technology companies contribute to the segment's growth.

Fixed Only Services - Broadband

Expected Growth: 2.1%

The 2.1% growth in Fixed Only Services - Broadband from Orange Polska S.A. is driven by increasing demand for high-speed internet, government initiatives to expand broadband infrastructure, and competitive pricing strategies. Additionally, the growing popularity of online streaming services and remote work have boosted demand for reliable and fast broadband connections.

Other

Expected Growth: 1.2%

Orange Polska S.A.'s 'Other' segment growth of 1.2% is driven by increasing demand for digital services, expansion of IT and cybersecurity offerings, and growing sales of energy and utilities services. Additionally, the company's focus on innovation and investments in new technologies, such as IoT and AI, contribute to the segment's growth.

Fixed Only Services - Narrowband

Expected Growth: 0.8%

The 0.8% growth in Fixed Only Services - Narrowband from Orange Polska S.A. is driven by increasing demand for stable and secure internet connectivity, particularly among rural and underserved areas, as well as the need for low-cost, low-bandwidth connectivity solutions for IoT devices and basic online activities.

Wholesale - Other

Expected Growth: 1.6%

The 1.6% growth in Wholesale - Other from Orange Polska S.A. is driven by increasing demand for data services, expansion of 5G network, and growing partnerships with content providers. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation and cost optimization initiatives have contributed to the growth.

Fixed Only Services - Network Solutions (Business Market)

Expected Growth: 2.5%

The 2.5% growth in Fixed Only Services - Network Solutions for the business market at Orange Polska S.A. is driven by increasing demand for reliable and secure connectivity, adoption of cloud-based services, and growing need for digital transformation among Polish businesses. Additionally, investments in fiber-optic infrastructure and competitive pricing strategies contribute to this growth.

Wholesale - Fixed

Expected Growth: 2.3%

The 2.3% growth in Wholesale - Fixed from Orange Polska S.A. is driven by increasing demand for high-speed internet and data services, coupled with the company's investments in fiber-optic infrastructure and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the growing need for reliable and secure connectivity among businesses and government institutions contributes to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Mobile Telephony

Orange Polska offers mobile telephony services, providing customers with access to voice, data, and multimedia services on the go.

Fixed-Line Telephony

Orange Polska provides fixed-line telephony services, offering customers a reliable and high-quality voice communication solution.

Broadband Internet

Orange Polska offers high-speed broadband internet services, enabling customers to access the internet, stream content, and use online applications.

TV Services

Orange Polska provides TV services, offering customers a range of channels, on-demand content, and interactive features.

ICT Services

Orange Polska offers ICT (Information and Communications Technology) services, providing businesses with customized IT solutions and infrastructure.

Cybersecurity Services

Orange Polska provides cybersecurity services, protecting customers from cyber threats and ensuring the security of their digital assets.

Data Center Services

Orange Polska offers data center services, providing customers with secure, reliable, and scalable infrastructure for their data storage needs.

8. Orange Polska S.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Orange Polska S.A. is medium due to the presence of alternative telecommunications services such as mobile operators and internet service providers.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Orange Polska S.A. is low due to the lack of switching options and the company's strong market position.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Orange Polska S.A. is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers and the company's dependence on them for network equipment and services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Orange Polska S.A. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the telecommunications industry, including the need for significant capital investment and regulatory approvals.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Orange Polska S.A. is high due to the presence of multiple competitors in the Polish telecommunications market, including Play, T-Mobile, and Plus.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 34.73%
Debt Cost 4.98%
Equity Weight 65.27%
Equity Cost 6.47%
WACC 5.95%
Leverage 53.21%

11. Quality Control: Orange Polska S.A. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 6.5

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Orange Polska

A-Score: 6.7/10

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Growth: 4.1

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 8.3

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A-Score: 5.5/10

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Quality: 6.1

Yield: 8.8

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

14.87$

Current Price

14.88$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows