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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Citi Trends, Inc.operates as a value retailer of fashion apparel, accessories, and home goods.It offers apparel, such as fashion sportswear and footwear for men and ladies, as well as apparel for kids, including newborns, infants, toddlers, boys, and girls; sleepwear, lingerie, and scrubs for ladies; and kids uniforms and accessories.


The company also provides accessories and beauty products that include handbags, luggage, hats, belts, sunglasses, jewelry, and watches, as well as undergarments and outerwear for men and women.In addition, it offers home and lifestyle products comprising home products for the bedroom, bathroom, kitchen, and decorative accessories; and food, tech, team sports, and health products, as well as seasonal items, books, and toys.The company provides its products primarily to African American and Latinx families in the United States.


As of January 29, 2022, it operated 609 stores in urban and rural markets in 33 states.The company was formerly known as Allied Fashion, Inc.and changed its name to Citi Trends, Inc.


in 2001.Citi Trends, Inc.was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Savannah, Georgia.

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1.b. Last Insights on CTRN

Citi Trends' recent performance was driven by accelerating comparable store sales, improved inventory turnover, and solid operating expense leverage under new CEO leadership. The company's operational improvements stem from tighter assortment discipline, opportunistic buying, and investments in store remodels and merchandising technology. Additionally, the company's strong Q1 2025 results demonstrate the effectiveness of its strategy, which has led to improved financial performance and a more efficient business model.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Citi Trends' Q3 2025 Earnings: Strong Comp Growth and Strategic Expansion

Citi Trends reported a 10.8% comparable store sales growth in Q3 2025, with total sales up 10.1% to $197.1 million, driven by increased customer traffic and strong performances in children's, men's, and basic apparel categories. The gross margin rate was 38.9%, down 90 basis points from Q3 2024, but in line with expectations. Adjusted SG&A expense totaled $79.5 million, up from $74.6 million in the prior year period, driven by higher incentive compensation accrual and store expenses. The company's adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was a loss of $2.9 million, in line with management expectations and better than a loss of $3.3 million a year ago. Actual EPS came out at -$0.88, relative to estimates at $0.8.

Publication Date: Dec -04

📋 Highlights
  • Q3 2025 EBITDA Improvement:: Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $2.9M (vs. $3.3M in 2024) and exceeded guidance, with full-year EBITDA guidance raised.
  • Strong Sales Growth:: 10.8% comp store sales growth YoY, 16.5% two-year stack, and total sales of $197.1M (+10.1%), driven by traffic and strong performance in children’s, men’s, and basics categories.
  • 2027 Expansion Plan:: Targets $45M EBITDA (+$60M from 2024), $900M+ sales, 42% gross margin, and 37% SG&A rate, supported by 25+ new stores annually and 650 total stores by 2027.
  • Capital and Store Strategy:: Full-year 2025 capex of $23M includes 3 new stores, 62 remodels, and 4 closures, with accelerated openings in Q3 2026 to meet growth goals.
  • Shrink Mitigation & Tech Investments:: AI-powered camera systems reduced shrink to <1.5% of sales in 2025, with tech expansion to 67% of stores in 2026, alongside CRM rollout for customer retention.

Operational Highlights

The company has established a clear line of sight to achieve $45 million of EBITDA in 2027, representing a $60 million increase from 2024 levels, driven by consistent comparable store sales performance, gross margin expansion, operating expense leverage, and strategic new store expansion. Citi Trends plans to open about 25 new stores in 2026, followed by at least 40 stores per year in 2027 and onward, targeting a store count of around 650 by 2027.

Growth Strategy and Outlook

Citi Trends expects full-year comp store sales growth of high single digits and full-year gross margin expansion of approximately 230 basis points. For the year, the company expects to open three new stores and remodel 62 locations, and plans to close four stores. Full-year capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $23 million. In Q4, comps are expected to be up high single digits with a two-year stack in the mid-teens, and Q4 EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $10 million to $12 million.

Valuation and Metrics

With a P/S Ratio of 0.45 and EV/EBITDA of 29.79, the market seems to be pricing in a moderate growth trajectory. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 7.1%. The company's ROE is -14.8%, and ROIC is -115.53%, indicating potential areas for improvement. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 9.37, suggesting a relatively high debt burden.

Technology and Customer Loyalty Initiatives

Citi Trends is implementing various initiatives to drive growth, including the rollout of new camera systems with AI capabilities and facial recognition to mitigate shrink, and the launch of a CRM system, dubbed the "Insiders Club," in Q1 2026. The CRM aims to offer customers early access to deals, emerging trends, and exclusive value, driving incremental traffic and loyalty.

3. NewsRoom

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Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Dec -02

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What's Going On With Citi Trends Stock Today?

Dec -02

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Should You Chase Citi Trends After Q3 Earnings?

Dec -02

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6,802 Shares in Citi Trends, Inc. $CTRN Acquired by Envestnet Asset Management Inc.

Nov -29

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Top Wall Street Forecasters Revamp Citi Trends Price Expectations Ahead Of Q3 Earnings

Nov -28

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Citi Trends Sets Date for Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call

Nov -18

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Citi Trends H1 2025 Was Good, H2 2025 Will Be Harder And The Price Is Optimistic

Aug -27

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Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Aug -26

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.87%)

6. Segments

Ladies

Expected Growth: 1.8%

Citi Trends, Inc.'s 1.8% growth among ladies is driven by increasing demand for affordable fashion, effective marketing strategies targeting this demographic, and strategic store locations in urban areas. Additionally, the company's focus on trendy, yet budget-friendly clothing resonates with price-conscious female consumers, contributing to the segment's growth.

Kids

Expected Growth: 1.9%

Citi Trends, Inc.'s kids' segment growth of 1.9% is driven by increasing demand for trendy, affordable apparel and accessories. Strong marketing efforts, strategic partnerships, and effective inventory management contribute to this growth. Additionally, the company's focus on providing high-quality products at competitive prices resonates with price-conscious parents, further fueling segment expansion.

Mens

Expected Growth: 2.1%

Citi Trends, Inc.'s mens segment growth of 2.1% is driven by increasing demand for urban fashion, expanding online presence, and strategic pricing. Additionally, the company's focus on trendy and affordable apparel, as well as its loyalty program, contribute to the growth. Furthermore, the rising popularity of streetwear and casual wear among men also supports the segment's growth.

Accessories & Beauty

Expected Growth: 1.7%

Citi Trends' Accessories & Beauty segment growth of 1.7% is driven by increasing demand for trendy and affordable fashion items, particularly among urban and multicultural consumers. Strong store traffic, effective inventory management, and strategic pricing also contribute to growth. Additionally, the company's focus on private label brands and exclusive partnerships with popular beauty influencers further boost sales.

Home & Lifestyle

Expected Growth: 1.6%

Citi Trends' Home & Lifestyle segment growth of 1.6% is driven by increasing demand for affordable home decor and furniture, particularly among budget-conscious millennials and Gen Z consumers. Additionally, the company's focus on trendy and stylish products, as well as its strong e-commerce platform, contribute to the segment's growth.

Footwear

Expected Growth: 2.2%

Citi Trends' 2.2% growth in footwear sales is driven by increasing demand for affordable fashion, strategic partnerships with popular brands, and effective inventory management. Additionally, the company's focus on trendy and celebrity-endorsed products, as well as its strong presence in underserved markets, contributes to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Ladies' Apparel

Citi Trends offers a wide range of ladies' apparel, including tops, bottoms, dresses, outerwear, and more from popular brands and in-house labels.

Men's Apparel

Citi Trends provides a variety of men's apparel, including casual wear, dress wear, and activewear from well-known brands and private labels.

Kids' Apparel

Citi Trends offers a fun and affordable selection of kids' apparel, including casual wear, dress wear, and accessories for boys and girls.

Accessories

Citi Trends sells a wide range of accessories, including hats, scarves, belts, handbags, and jewelry from popular brands and in-house labels.

Home Goods

Citi Trends offers a variety of home goods, including bedding, kitchenware, and decorative items at affordable prices.

8. Citi Trends, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Citi Trends, Inc. operates in the retail industry, where substitutes are readily available. However, the company's focus on offering trendy, affordable fashion apparel and accessories at discounted prices helps to mitigate the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Citi Trends, Inc. operates in a highly competitive retail industry, but the company's focus on offering low prices and a wide range of products helps to reduce the bargaining power of customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Citi Trends, Inc. relies on a diverse supplier base, which helps to reduce the bargaining power of suppliers. However, the company's dependence on a few large suppliers for certain products may give them some bargaining power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The retail industry is highly competitive, and new entrants can easily enter the market. Citi Trends, Inc. faces a high threat of new entrants, which could potentially disrupt the market and gain market share.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The retail industry is highly competitive, and Citi Trends, Inc. operates in a crowded market with many established players. The company faces intense rivalry from competitors, which could lead to price wars and reduced profit margins.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 59.81%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 40.19%
Equity Cost 16.10%
WACC 8.83%
Leverage 148.79%

11. Quality Control: Citi Trends, Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Designer Brands

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Citi Trends

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 1.7

Quality: 1.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Genesco

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 2.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Destination XL

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Torrid

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
The Children's Place

A-Score: 2.7/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 1.0

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

44.87$

Current Price

44.87$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows