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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Designer Brands Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and retails footwear and accessories for women, men, and kids primarily in North America.The company operates through three segments: U.S. Retail, Canada Retail, and Brand Portfolio.It provides dress, casual, and athletic footwear; and handbags.


The company offers its products under the Vince Camuto, Louise et Cie, Jessica Simpson, Lucky, JLO Jenifer Lopez, and other brands.It also operates vincecamuto.com e-commerce site, as well as www.dsw.com, www.dsw.ca, and www.theshoecompany.ca websites; and a portfolio of banners, including DSW Designer Shoe Warehouse, The Shoe Company, and Shoe Warehouse.As of January 29, 2022, it operated 648 stores.


Designer Brands Inc.was founded in 1991 and is based in Columbus, Ohio.

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1.b. Last Insights on DBI

Designer Brands Inc.'s recent performance was negatively driven by weaker-than-expected Q3 earnings and revenue, with the company missing estimates. The US retail segment's 2.8% decline and owned brands' 7.5% drop contributed to the topline challenges. Additionally, the company's decision to repurchase shares using expensive debt increased financial risk, raising concerns about covering interest expenses. The high leverage risk and the need for a 10% sales increase to achieve a 3.2% operating margin further exacerbate the challenges.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Strong Q3 Earnings Beat Expectations

The company reported a total sales decline of 3% year over year, with comparable sales down 2.4%. However, the sequential improvement from the second quarter was significant, with a 260 basis point improvement in comparable sales. The adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.38, significantly beating the estimated $0.18. The gross margin improved by 210 basis points to 45.1% driven by fewer markdowns in the U.S. Retail segment. Adjusted operating income was $46.5 million, up from $43.6 million last year.

Publication Date: Dec -20

📋 Highlights
  • Sales Decline with Sequential Improvement:: Total sales down 3% YoY (-2.4% comp sales), but 260 basis point sequential improvement from Q2 reflects stronger consumer demand and in-store execution.
  • DSW Momentum and Brand Campaign Success:: DSW stores showed positive momentum with improved in-stock levels, while the "Let Us Surprise You" campaign generated 2 billion earned media impressions.
  • Margin Expansion and Profit Growth:: Gross margin reached 45.1% (up 210 bps YoY), and adjusted operating income rose to $46.5M vs. $43.6M last year, despite lower sales.
  • Strong Cash Position and Liquidity:: Ended Q3 with $51.4M cash and $218.3M total liquidity, down from $469.8M debt, reflecting disciplined financial management.
  • Q4 Guidance and Category Strength:: Expect 140 bps gross margin improvement in Q4, with boot category and top eight brands driving growth (4% comp for top brands, affordable luxury double last year's levels).

Segment Performance

The U.S. Retail segment saw sales decline 0.8% year over year, with comp sales down 1.5%, reflecting another quarter of sequential improvements. The Canada retail segment sales declined 7.5% due to warmer weather affecting demand for seasonal products. The DSW stores saw positive momentum driven by improved in-stock levels and rising demand across key categories.

Operational Highlights

The company ended the quarter with total inventories down 2.7% year over year, and adjusted operating expenses were up $2.5 million, representing 39.4% of sales. The Let Us Surprise You brand campaign generated 2 billion earned media impressions as of October, and the top eight brands continued to outperform, posting a positive 4% comp for the quarter.

Outlook and Guidance

The company expects total net sales for the year to be down in the range of 3% to 5% and adjusted operating income in the range of $50 million to $55 million. Doug Howe mentioned that the sequential improvement seen in Q3 has continued into Q4, with key categories and brands showing momentum. The affordable luxury business is almost double what it was last year, and the boot category was strong in October and continued into Q4.

Valuation and Estimates

With a P/E Ratio of 171.92, the stock appears to be priced for high growth expectations. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -3.9%. The company's current valuation metrics, including a P/S Ratio of 0.13 and EV/EBITDA of 19.44, suggest that the market is pricing in significant improvement in profitability. The actual EPS beat estimates, and the guidance for adjusted operating income is in the range of $50 million to $55 million, indicating a positive outlook for the company.

3. NewsRoom

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Are You Looking for a Top Momentum Pick? Why Designer Brands (DBI) is a Great Choice

Dec -17

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Is Designer Brands (DBI) Stock Outpacing Its Retail-Wholesale Peers This Year?

Dec -12

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Designer Brands Stock Gains 49% After Posting Q3 Earnings Beat

Dec -10

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Designer Brands Analysts Boost Their Forecasts Following Strong Q3 Earnings

Dec -10

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Designer Brands Q3: A Clear EPS Beat, But Not Good Enough

Dec -10

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Why Designer Brands Stock Soared Today

Dec -10

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Designer Brands Continues To Post Negative Comps And Barely Covers Interest

Dec -09

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Designer Brands Inc. (DBI) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Dec -09

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.00%)

6. Segments

United States Retail

Expected Growth: 2%

The 2% growth in United States Retail from Designer Brands Inc. is driven by increasing demand for affordable luxury footwear, successful brand revamps, and strategic store remodels. Additionally, the company's focus on omnichannel retailing and loyalty programs has enhanced customer engagement, contributing to the segment's growth.

Brand Portfolio

Expected Growth: 3%

Designer Brands Inc.'s 3% brand portfolio growth is driven by strategic acquisitions, expanding e-commerce presence, and effective marketing campaigns. The company's focus on omnichannel retailing, product innovation, and strong relationships with suppliers also contribute to its growth. Additionally, the increasing demand for affordable luxury and athleisure products benefits the company's portfolio of brands, including Vince Camuto and DSW.

Canada Retail

Expected Growth: 1%

Canada Retail segment of Designer Brands Inc. growth driven by increasing demand for affordable luxury footwear, successful marketing campaigns, and strategic store expansions in high-traffic locations, resulting in a 1% growth rate.

7. Detailed Products

DSW (Designer Shoe Warehouse)

A leading footwear retailer offering a wide selection of brand-name and designer shoes for men, women, and kids.

The Shoe Company

A Canadian footwear retailer offering a wide selection of brand-name shoes for men, women, and kids.

Shoe Warehouse

A footwear retailer offering a wide selection of brand-name shoes for men, women, and kids, with a focus on value and convenience.

Abilities

A footwear brand offering comfortable and stylish shoes for people with disabilities or special needs.

Private Brands

A portfolio of private footwear brands, including Audrey Brooke, Kelly & Katie, and others.

Camuto Group

A leading footwear design, development, and sourcing company, offering private label and branded footwear solutions.

8. Designer Brands Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Designer Brands Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes as customers have limited alternatives for branded footwear and accessories. However, the rise of online shopping and changing consumer preferences may lead to increased competition from new entrants.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Designer Brands Inc. has a high bargaining power of customers due to the presence of online retailers and changing consumer preferences, which gives customers more options and bargaining power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Designer Brands Inc. has a low bargaining power of suppliers due to its large scale of operations and diversified supplier base, which gives it more negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

Designer Brands Inc. faces a moderate threat from new entrants due to the presence of online platforms and changing consumer preferences, which makes it easier for new entrants to enter the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Designer Brands Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry with many established players, leading to a high intensity of rivalry among competitors.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 62.30%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 37.70%
Equity Cost 14.39%
WACC 7.88%
Leverage 165.25%

11. Quality Control: Designer Brands Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
J.Jill

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 8.8

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Citi Trends

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 1.7

Quality: 2.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Hibbett

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Designer Brands

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 5.5

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 2.8

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Genesco

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 2.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Destination XL

A-Score: 2.8/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

6.67$

Current Price

6.67$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows