Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides fiber-based packaging solutions to food, beverage, foodservice, and other consumer products companies.It operates through three segments: Paperboard Mills, Americas Paperboard Packaging, and Europe Paperboard Packaging.The company offers coated unbleached kraft (CUK), coated recycled paperboard (CRB), and solid bleached sulfate paperboard (SBS) to various paperboard packaging converters and brokers; and paperboard packaging products, such as folding cartons, cups, lids, and food containers primarily to consumer packaged goods, quick-service restaurants, and foodservice companies; and barrier packaging products that protect against moisture, hot and cold temperature, grease, oil, oxygen, sunlight, insects, and other potential product-damaging factors.


It also offers various laminated, coated, and printed packaging structures that are produced from its CUK, CRB, and SBS, as well as other grades of paperboards that are purchased from third-party suppliers; designs and manufactures specialized packaging machines that package bottles and cans, and non-beverage consumer products; and installs its packaging machines at customer plants and provides support, service, and performance monitoring of the machines.The company markets its products primarily through sales offices and broker arrangements with third parties in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific.Graphic Packaging Holding Company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on GPK

Graphic Packaging Holding Company's recent performance has been impacted by several factors. The company's Q3 2025 earnings call revealed a decline in packaging volumes by 2% year-over-year, while inventories decreased sequentially. Despite this, innovation sales growth continues to open new markets for paperboard packaging. A $39 million share repurchase was also announced, resulting in a 2.3% year-to-date net share reduction. Additionally, the company beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates, with quarterly earnings of $0.58 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.54 per share.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Graphic Packaging's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance Amidst Challenges

Graphic Packaging reported sales of $2.2 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $383 million, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.5% in Q3 2025. The company's adjusted EPS came in at $0.58, beating analyst estimates of $0.54. Revenue was down 2% year-over-year, mainly due to volume declines, but the company outperformed the markets it serves. The adjusted EBITDA margin was in line with expectations, driven by cost savings and operational efficiencies.

Publication Date: Nov -09

📋 Highlights
  • Q3 Sales and Adjusted EBITDA:: $2.2B sales, $383M adjusted EBITDA (17.5% margin), $0.58 adjusted EPS.
  • Waco Facility Launch:: First commercial rolled paperboard produced in October 2025, expected to generate $80M EBITDA in 2026 with 15M cups/day capacity.
  • Share Repurchases:: $150M spent year-to-date to repurchase 6.8M shares (2.3% reduction in 2025), totaling 24% of shares since 2018.
  • 2026 Free Cash Flow Target:: $700M–$800M driven by $400M CapEx reduction, inventory optimization, and 5% sales-based capital spending.
  • Debt Management:: $400M delayed draw term loan to repay 2026 bonds, 4.5% debt cost, with net debt/EBITDA targeting 3.5–3.7x by year-end.

Operational Highlights and Outlook

The company made significant progress on its Waco recycled paperboard manufacturing facility, producing the first commercially saleable rolled paperboard on October 24, ahead of schedule. This facility is expected to drive growth and improve the company's competitive position in the market. Graphic Packaging has revised its guidance modestly, reflecting its performance to date and the increasingly uncertain volume outlook. The company is focused on controlling costs, managing inventory, and reducing SG&A expenses.

Cash Flow and Capital Allocation

Graphic Packaging expects a significant inflection in free cash flow in 2026, driven by reduced capital spending, improved working capital management, and the ramp-up of the Waco facility. The company anticipates generating $700 million to $800 million in free cash flow next year. With a strong global packaging manufacturing network and a talented innovation team, Graphic Packaging is well-positioned to deliver exceptional results and generate strong cash flow over the next half decade. The current valuation metrics, including a P/E Ratio of 9.55 and an EV/EBITDA of 7.55, suggest that the market has priced in a reasonable growth outlook for the company.

Growth Prospects and Competitive Advantage

Graphic Packaging's innovation platform continues to drive growth, with the company introducing recycled paperboard packaging to new markets and categories. The Waco facility is expected to contribute $80 million in EBITDA in 2026, driven by cost savings and volume growth. The company's focus on innovation, execution, and free cash flow is expected to drive long-term value creation for shareholders. With a Net Debt / EBITDA ratio of 4.11, the company has a relatively high level of debt, but it is expected to deleverage its balance sheet in the coming years.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

Graphic Packaging Stock Is Slumping — But a New $12.6 Million Stake Signals a Value Play

Dec -04

Source: fool.com

Card image cap

Graphic Packaging Holding Company Declares Quarterly Dividend

Dec -03

Source: prnewswire.com

Card image cap

Graphic Packaging to Present at Raymond James 2025 TMT and Consumer Conference on December 8

Dec -01

Source: prnewswire.com

Card image cap

Brandywine Global Investment Management LLC Sells 181,911 Shares of Graphic Packaging Holding Company $GPK

Nov -24

Source: defenseworld.net

Card image cap

Barings LLC Has $1.76 Million Stock Holdings in Graphic Packaging Holding Company $GPK

Nov -23

Source: defenseworld.net

Card image cap

Analysts Set Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:GPK) Target Price at $22.63

Nov -18

Source: defenseworld.net

Card image cap

4 Ideal November Buys In Barron's 100 Sustainable Dividend Dogs Of 47 'Safer'

Nov -13

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

New Strong Sell Stocks for Nov. 13

Nov -13

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.00%)

6. Segments

Americas Paperboard Packaging

Expected Growth: 2.0%

The 2.0% growth of Americas Paperboard Packaging from Graphic Packaging Holding Company is driven by increasing demand for sustainable packaging, growth in e-commerce, and rising consumption of packaged food and beverages. Additionally, the company's focus on innovation, cost savings initiatives, and strategic acquisitions are expected to contribute to its growth.

Europe Paperboard Packaging

Expected Growth: 2.0%

The 2.0% growth in Europe Paperboard Packaging from Graphic Packaging Holding Company is driven by increasing demand for sustainable packaging, growth in e-commerce, and rising consumption of packaged food and beverages. Additionally, the company's focus on innovation, cost savings initiatives, and strategic acquisitions are contributing to its growth in the region.

Paperboard Manufacturing

Expected Growth: 2.0%

Graphic Packaging Holding Company's 2.0% growth in Paperboard Manufacturing is driven by increasing demand for sustainable packaging, growth in e-commerce, and rising consumption of packaged food and beverages. Additionally, the company's strategic acquisitions, cost savings initiatives, and investments in innovative products and technologies also contribute to its growth.

Corporate/Other/Eliminations

Expected Growth: 2.0%

The 2.0% growth in Corporate/Other/Eliminations at Graphic Packaging Holding Company is driven by improved operational efficiencies, reduced overhead costs, and strategic investments in digital transformation. Additionally, the company's focus on sustainability and innovation has led to increased productivity and cost savings, contributing to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Paperboard

A type of paper-based material used for packaging, made from layers of paper pulp, used for cereal boxes, file folders, and other applications

Folding Cartons

A type of packaging made from paperboard, used for packaging of food, pharmaceuticals, and other consumer goods

Converted Paper Products

A range of paper-based products, including cups, lids, and containers, used for hot and cold beverages

Specialty Packaging

Customized packaging solutions for specific industries, such as food, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetics

Sustainable Packaging

Eco-friendly packaging solutions, made from recycled materials, biodegradable, and compostable

8. Graphic Packaging Holding Company's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Graphic Packaging Holding Company is medium due to the availability of alternative packaging solutions. However, the company's focus on sustainable and innovative packaging solutions helps to mitigate this threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is high due to the concentration of major consumer goods companies that Graphic Packaging Holding Company supplies to. These customers have significant negotiating power, which can impact the company's pricing and profitability.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is low due to the company's large scale of operations and its ability to negotiate favorable prices with suppliers. Additionally, the company's focus on sustainability and environmental responsibility helps to build strong relationships with suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the packaging industry, including significant capital expenditures and regulatory requirements. Additionally, Graphic Packaging Holding Company's established relationships with customers and suppliers make it difficult for new entrants to gain traction.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry in the packaging industry is medium due to the presence of several established players. However, Graphic Packaging Holding Company's focus on innovation and sustainability helps to differentiate it from competitors and mitigate the intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 65.50%
Debt Cost 5.74%
Equity Weight 34.50%
Equity Cost 8.29%
WACC 6.62%
Leverage 189.90%

11. Quality Control: Graphic Packaging Holding Company passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Sonoco

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
PCA

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Greif

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Reynolds Consumer Products

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Graphic Packaging

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
WestRock

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 4.9

Growth: 2.7

Quality: 2.7

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

15.99$

Current Price

15.99$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows