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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Greif, Inc.engages in the production and sale of industrial packaging products and services worldwide.It operates in three segments: Global Industrial Packaging; Paper Packaging & Services; and Land Management.


The Global Industrial Packaging segment produces and sells industrial packaging products, including steel, fiber, and plastic drums; rigid and flexible intermediate bulk containers; closure systems for industrial packaging products; transit protection products; water bottles, and remanufactured and reconditioned industrial containers; and various services, such as container life cycle management, filling, logistics, warehousing, and other packaging services to chemicals, paints and pigments, food and beverage, petroleum, industrial coatings, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, mineral product, and other industries.This segment also offers flexible intermediate bulk containers and related services to the agriculture, construction, and food industries.The Paper Packaging & Services segment produces and sells containerboards, corrugated sheets and containers, and other corrugated and specialty products to customers in the packaging, automotive, food, and building products markets; and produces and sells coated and uncoated recycled paperboard, and recycled fiber.


This segment's corrugated container products are used to ship various products, such as home appliances, small machinery, grocery products, automotive components, books, and furniture, as well as various other applications.The Land Management segment engages in harvesting and regeneration of timber properties; and sale of timberland and special use properties.As of October 31, 2021, this segment owned approximately 175,000 acres of timber properties in the southeastern United States.


The company was formerly known as Greif Bros.Corporation and changed its name to Greif, Inc.in 2001.


Greif, Inc.was founded in 1877 and is headquartered in Delaware, Ohio.

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1.b. Last Insights on GEF

Greif, Inc.'s recent performance was negatively impacted by a 3% year-over-year decrease in revenues, despite beating EPS estimates with 12% growth. The company's decision to sell its containerboard business to Packaging Corp for $1.8B aims to reduce debt and sharpen its strategic focus. Additionally, the retirement of General Counsel Gary Martz after over two decades of service may lead to leadership transition risks. According to Zacks, the company was upgraded to a Buy rating, citing growing optimism about its earnings prospects.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Greif's Q4 Earnings: A Strong Beat with Strategic Progress

Greif's fiscal fourth quarter 2025 results showed an adjusted EBITDA of $99 million, a 7.4% increase from the prior year, with EBITDA margins expanding 140 basis points. The company's EPS came in at $1.13, significantly beating estimates of $0.31. Revenue performance was impacted by a 2-month reporting period, and the company's guidance for fiscal '26 assumes flat to low single-digit volume declines in metals and fiber, and low single-digit volume improvement in polymers and closures. The actual EPS beat is a testament to the company's successful cost optimization program, which achieved $50 million in run-rate savings in fiscal '25, exceeding its commitment.

Publication Date: Dec -02

📋 Highlights
  • Debt Reduction Proceeds:: Greif generated $462 million from selling containerboard and land management businesses to reduce debt.
  • Cost Savings Progress:: Achieved $50M+ run-rate savings in fiscal '25, raising fiscal '26-27 targets to $80-90M and $120M respectively.
  • Q4 EBITDA Growth:: Adjusted EBITDA rose 7.4% YoY to $99M, with margins expanding 140 bps.
  • Free Cash Flow Guidance:: $315M expected in fiscal '26, with 50% conversion rate and $155M in CapEx.
  • Stock Repurchase Plan:: $150M open-market buyback authorized, targeting leverage under 1.5x by 2026.

Cost Optimization and Guidance

The company is raising its fiscal '26 and '27 cumulative run-rate commitments to $80-90 million and $120 million, respectively, indicating a successful execution of its cost optimization strategy. Greif guides for low-end EBITDA in fiscal '26, with a free cash flow conversion rate of 50%, resulting in $315 million in free cash flow and $155 million in CapEx. The company's pro forma leverage is below 1.0x, and it plans to execute an approximately $150 million open market repurchase plan.

Segment Performance and Outlook

The closure segment, now a standalone segment, has high and attractive margins, with a focus on growth, M&A, and organic growth. The Durable Metals business, which will be the largest segment, has around 40-45% of its presence in Europe, and despite chemical plant closures in Continental Europe and Eastern Europe, the company's North American steel business has been down similar levels to EMEA quarter-by-quarter. The company is focusing on margin expansion, cash generation, and reducing cyclability.

Valuation and Return Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 20.33 and an EV/EBITDA of 9.06, the market is pricing in a certain level of growth and profitability. The company's ROIC is 4.84%, and ROE is 8.99%, indicating a decent return on capital. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 4.15, which is relatively high, but the company is working to reduce its leverage ratio below 1.5x by the end of 2026. The Dividend Yield is 3.28%, and the Free Cash Flow Yield is 10.75%, making the stock attractive from a yield perspective.

M&A and Capital Deployment

Greif aims to maintain a leverage ratio below 2x and prioritizes disciplined capital deployment and organic growth over forced M&A. The company has a low-end guidance of $630 million in EBITDA and a commitment of $120 million in cost savings. With industrial volume recovery, they see a path to reaching their goal without chasing bad deals. The $140 million from 2022 volumes is largely intact, indicating a stable foundation for future growth.

3. NewsRoom

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Greif Named to America's Most Responsible Companies 2026 List for Seventh Consecutive Year

Dec -04

Source: globenewswire.com

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Greif, Inc. $GEF Shares Acquired by Envestnet Asset Management Inc.

Nov -11

Source: defenseworld.net

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Greif, Inc. (GEF) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -06

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Greif Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2025 Results

Nov -05

Source: globenewswire.com

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Greif (NYSE:GEF) & Graphic Packaging (NYSE:GPK) Head-To-Head Review

Nov -05

Source: defenseworld.net

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Greif Named Top 100 Most Loved Workplace® for Fifth Consecutive Year

Oct -14

Source: globenewswire.com

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Greif Optimizes Portfolio With Timberlands Business Sale

Oct -03

Source: zacks.com

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Greif Completes Sale of Timberlands Business

Oct -02

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.37%)

6. Segments

Global Industrial Packaging

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Greif's Global Industrial Packaging segment growth of 4.5% is driven by increasing demand for sustainable packaging solutions, expansion in emerging markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, growth in e-commerce and the need for protective packaging for fragile goods also contribute to the segment's growth.

Paper Packaging & Services

Expected Growth: 4.2%

Greif's Paper Packaging & Services segment growth of 4.2% is driven by increasing demand for sustainable packaging, e-commerce growth, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiency, cost savings initiatives, and investments in new products and technologies have contributed to the segment's growth.

Land Management

Expected Growth: 3.8%

Greif's Land Management segment growth of 3.8% is driven by increasing demand for sustainable forestry practices, strategic acquisitions, and effective cost management. Additionally, the company's focus on reforestation and habitat conservation efforts has led to increased revenue from carbon credits and ecosystem services.

7. Detailed Products

Rigid Industrial Packaging

Greif offers a wide range of rigid industrial packaging products, including steel, fibre, and plastic drums, as well as intermediate bulk containers (IBCs) and totes.

Flexible Industrial Packaging

Greif's flexible industrial packaging products include multiwall bags, container liners, and other flexible packaging solutions.

Intermediate Bulk Containers (IBCs)

Greif's IBCs are used for the safe and efficient storage and transportation of liquids, pastes, and powders.

Drums and Containers

Greif offers a range of drums and containers, including steel, fibre, and plastic drums, as well as totes and other containers.

Land Management Services

Greif's land management services include land acquisition, permitting, and management of landfills and other waste management facilities.

Environmental Services

Greif's environmental services include environmental consulting, remediation, and waste management services.

8. Greif, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Greif, Inc. operates in a industry with moderate threat of substitutes. The company's products are not easily substitutable, but there are some alternatives available in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Greif, Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. The company's products are also customized to meet specific customer needs, making it difficult for customers to switch to alternative suppliers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Greif, Inc. has a moderate level of bargaining power over its suppliers. The company sources its raw materials from a diverse range of suppliers, which reduces its dependence on any one supplier.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants in the industry is low due to the high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles. Greif, Inc. has a strong brand presence and established customer relationships, making it difficult for new entrants to gain traction.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The industry in which Greif, Inc. operates is highly competitive, with several established players competing for market share. The company must continually innovate and improve its products and services to maintain its market position.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 56.30%
Debt Cost 5.04%
Equity Weight 43.70%
Equity Cost 8.54%
WACC 6.57%
Leverage 128.81%

11. Quality Control: Greif, Inc. passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Sonoco

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Value: 7.2

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 8.3

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PCA

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 8.7

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Greif

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 7.0

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Reynolds Consumer Products

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 9.0

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Graphic Packaging

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 8.3

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WestRock

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 4.9

Growth: 2.7

Quality: 2.7

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 3.3

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

65.45$

Current Price

65.45$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows