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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Jack in the Box Inc.operates and franchises Jack in the Box quick-service restaurants.As of November 23, 2021, it operated and franchised approximately 2,200 Jack in the Box quick-service restaurants in 21 states and Guam.


The company was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on JACK

Negative drivers behind Jack in the Box's recent performance include the impact of Del Taco refranchising transactions, which hurt the company's first-quarter fiscal 2025 results. Additionally, the company's same-store sales declined 3.7% year-over-year, and its top-line sales were affected by the refranchising transactions. Furthermore, the recent price target lowering by Baird to $25 from $34 and the company's focus on franchised restaurants, which reduces capital requirements but also limits growth opportunities, are also contributing factors.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Jack in the Box FY2025 Earnings: A Challenging Year with a Turnaround Strategy

Jack in the Box reported a decline in same-store sales for both its Jack in the Box and Del Taco brands in the fourth quarter of FY2025. The company's system same-store sales declined 7.4% for Jack in the Box and 3.9% for Del Taco. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $45.6 million, down from $65.5 million in the prior year. The company's GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) was $0.30, missing analyst estimates of $0.46. Revenue growth is expected to be negative 14.5% next year.

Publication Date: Nov -21

📋 Highlights
  • Q4 System Same-Store Sales Decline:: Jack in the Box system same-store sales down 7.4% (franchise -7.6%, company-owned -5.3%) due to lower transactions and negative mix, partially offset by 2.4% price increase.
  • Del Taco Performance:: System same-store sales declined 3.9% (company-owned -3.1%, franchise -4.2%), driven by transaction drops and unfavorable mix, with 2.8% price lift.
  • Adjusted EBITDA Drop:: Q4 consolidated adjusted EBITDA fell to $45.6M from $65.5M YoY, while full-year EBITDA of $270.9M met revised guidance despite lower sales.
  • 2026 Outlook:: Targeting -1% to +1% same-store sales growth, $225M–$240M adjusted EBITDA, and $263M debt reduction via Del Taco divestiture proceeds and asset sales.
  • Operational Improvements:: 300 bps sequential sales growth in Q4 attributed to bonus jack promotions and price-pointed value, with plans for reimage programs and supply chain/labor cost optimization.

Financial Performance

The company's financial performance was impacted by lower same-store sales at both brands, resulting in a decline in adjusted EBITDA. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA was $270.9 million, within the company's revised guidance range. The effective tax rate for the fourth quarter was negative 30.4% compared to 29.2% in the prior year quarter. The company's guidance for FY2026 expects same-store sales for the Jack in the Box brand to return to positive, driven by its barbell promotional approach, enhanced operations, and improved guest experience.

Operational Highlights

The company is focused on improving its operational discipline to drive growth and shareholder value in 2026 and beyond. The company is making strides in operational excellence, retraining its system with a disciplined focus on getting back to basics. As Lance Tucker mentioned, "We're rethinking how we deliver our burgers, starting with the fundamentals: cooking procedures, ingredients, and training." The company expects to exit 2026 with 2,050-2,100 restaurants and same-store sales of negative 1% to positive 1% versus the prior year.

Valuation Metrics

To understand what's priced in, we can look at the company's valuation metrics. The company's P/E Ratio is -3.66, indicating that the market is not expecting positive earnings in the near term. The EV/EBITDA ratio is 47.14, suggesting that the company's enterprise value is high relative to its EBITDA. The Dividend Yield is 5.68%, which may be attractive to income investors. With a Net Debt / EBITDA ratio of 38.97, the company's debt levels are high relative to its EBITDA, highlighting the need for debt reduction.

3. NewsRoom

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Merry Munchies! 24 Days of Jackmas Is Back at Jack in the Box

Dec -01

Source: businesswire.com

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Head-To-Head Review: Jack In The Box (NASDAQ:JACK) versus J D Wetherspoon (OTCMKTS:JDWPF)

Nov -29

Source: defenseworld.net

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3 Big Stock Discounts This Black Friday

Nov -28

Source: seekingalpha.com

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DO & CO Aktiengesellschaft (OTCMKTS:DOCOF) and Jack In The Box (NASDAQ:JACK) Head-To-Head Review

Nov -23

Source: defenseworld.net

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Jack In The Box: Everything Has Been Priced In, But No Drivers (Downgrade)

Nov -20

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Why Jack In The Box Stock Popped Today

Nov -20

Source: fool.com

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Jack In The Box Analysts Slash Their Forecasts After Downbeat Earnings

Nov -20

Source: benzinga.com

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Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -20

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.79%)

6. Segments

Jack in The Box

Expected Growth: 4.77%

Jack in the Box's 4.77% growth is driven by strategic menu innovation, increased focus on digital transformation, and effective marketing campaigns. Additionally, the brand's value proposition, convenience, and late-night operating hours appeal to a loyal customer base, contributing to its growth momentum.

Del Taco

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Del Taco's 4.83% growth is driven by its value-oriented menu, successful refranchising efforts, and strategic marketing initiatives. Additionally, the brand's focus on convenience, including mobile ordering and drive-thru services, has contributed to increased sales. Furthermore, Del Taco's expansion into new markets and remodels of existing locations have also supported growth.

7. Detailed Products

Burgers

Jack in the Box offers a variety of burgers made with 100% beef, including the signature Jumbo Jack and the Bacon Ultimate Cheeseburger.

Sandwiches

The company offers a range of sandwiches, including chicken, turkey, and club sandwiches, as well as salads and wraps.

Breakfast Items

Jack in the Box serves breakfast items such as egg sandwiches, burritos, and hash browns, available all day.

Sides

The company offers a variety of sides, including fries, curly fries, and potato wedges.

Desserts

Jack in the Box offers a range of desserts, including ice cream cones, milkshakes, and cookies.

Beverages

The company offers a variety of beverages, including soft drinks, iced tea, and coffee.

Value Meals

Jack in the Box offers value meals that combine a sandwich, side, and drink at a discounted price.

Catering Services

The company offers catering services for events and parties, including customized menus and delivery options.

8. Jack in the Box Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Jack in the Box Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes, as customers have various options for quick-service restaurants and fast food. However, the company's unique menu offerings and convenience factor mitigate this threat to some extent.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Jack in the Box Inc. faces high bargaining power from customers, as they have numerous options for dining out and can easily switch to competitors. The company needs to focus on customer loyalty and retention to mitigate this threat.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Jack in the Box Inc. has a relatively low bargaining power from suppliers, as it has a diversified supply chain and can negotiate better prices due to its large scale of operations.

Threat Of New Entrants

Jack in the Box Inc. faces a moderate threat from new entrants, as the fast-food industry is highly competitive and new players can enter the market. However, the company's established brand and scale of operations provide some barriers to entry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Jack in the Box Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry, with intense rivalry among established players. The company needs to focus on differentiating its offerings and improving operational efficiency to maintain its market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 129.38%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight -29.38%
Equity Cost 13.05%
WACC 1.27%
Leverage -440.32%

11. Quality Control: Jack in the Box Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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The Cheesecake Factory

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Value: 5.3

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 6.3

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Flanigan's

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 3.7

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Jack in the Box

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 3.0

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Growth: 2.0

Quality: 3.0

Yield: 8.0

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A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 9.6

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Quality: 2.4

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Volatility: 3.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

19.09$

Current Price

19.09$

Potential

0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows