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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.operates as a retailer of brand name merchandise.The company offers housewares, bed and bath, food, floor coverings, health and beauty aids, books and stationery, toys, and electronics; and other products, including hardware, candy, clothing, sporting goods, pet and lawn, and garden products.


It provides its products primarily under the Ollie's, Ollie's Bargain Outlet, Good Stuff Cheap, Ollie's Army, Real Brands Real Cheap!, Real Brands! Real Bargains, Sarasota Breeze, Steelton Tools, American Way, and Middleton Home names.As of August 3, 2022, it operated 450 stores in 29 states throughout half of the United States.The company was formerly known as Bargain Holdings, Inc.


and changed its name to Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.in March 2015.Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.


was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

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1.b. Last Insights on OLLI

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s recent performance was negatively impacted by few elements. Nevertheless, several factors indicate a positive short-term outlook. The company's Q2 earnings beat estimates, with a 5% comp growth and stronger margins. Ollie's raised its full-year sales and profit outlook, driven by a 17.5% increase in net sales and 25.0% growth in earnings per share. According to KeyBanc Capital Markets, the stock is rated as a buy. A favorable sourcing environment due to high retail inventories and increased bankruptcies supports ongoing sales momentum.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Delivers Strong Q2 Results, Raises Full-Year Outlook

Ollie's Bargain Outlet reported a robust second quarter, with net sales increasing 18% to $680 million, driven by new store openings and comparable store sales growth of 5%. The company's gross margin expanded 200 basis points to 39.9%, surpassing expectations, with lower supply chain costs and higher merchandise margins being the primary drivers. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.99, beating estimates of $0.91, representing a 26.9% increase.

Publication Date: Aug -29

📋 Highlights
  • New Store Growth:: Opened 29 new stores in Q2, expanding total stores to 613 (+17% YoY) and driving 18% net sales growth to $680 million.
  • Comparable Store Sales:: Achieved 5% comp sales growth, driven by increased transactions and a 200 bps gross margin expansion to 39.9%.
  • Earnings Momentum:: Adjusted EPS rose 26.9% to $0.99, with full-year guidance raised for sales, earnings, and comp sales growth.
  • Strategic Expansion:: Plans to accelerate store openings in 2026, leveraging 10% annual unit growth and improved new store economics (strong payback periods).

Store Expansion and Performance

The company opened 29 new stores in the second quarter, ending the period with a total of 613 stores, a 17% year-over-year increase. New store performance was strong, with Robert Helm noting that new stores are performing above plan, with robust payback periods. The company's aggressive store expansion strategy is expected to continue, with a commitment to delivering 10% annual unit growth.

Gross Margin and Earnings Power

Ollie's Bargain Outlet expects gross margins to remain above 40% for 2025, driven by its size and scale, which has resulted in buying power and expanded relationships with suppliers. Eric van der Valk attributed the overdelivery on gross margin to the company's ability to execute well on all fronts, with lower supply chain costs and lower markdowns contributing to the elevated margin. The company's earnings power is expected to drive mid-teens earnings growth in 2026.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 38.94, P/B Ratio of 4.52, and P/S Ratio of 3.34, the market is pricing in significant growth expectations. The company's ROE (%) of 12.12 and ROIC (%) of 7.66 indicate a strong return on equity and invested capital. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 14.2%, which is in line with the company's commitment to delivering 10% annual unit growth.

Operational Highlights

The strength of Ollie's consumables business, which is high frequency and high visit, carried the company through the summer quarter. The consolidation of the closeout market has allowed Ollie's to gain market share and leverage its experienced buying team to consume more closeouts. The company's aggressive approach to establishing new relationships and expanding existing ones has led to a significant increase in closeout sales.

3. NewsRoom

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Exploring Analyst Estimates for Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) Q3 Earnings, Beyond Revenue and EPS

Dec -04

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4 Consumer Product Stocks to Watch as the Market Resets for 2026

Dec -04

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Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. $OLLI Stock Holdings Lowered by Cetera Investment Advisers

Dec -02

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Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (NASDAQ:OLLI) vs. Leslie’s (NASDAQ:LESL) Head-To-Head Contrast

Dec -02

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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Remains Too Expensive For My Wallet

Dec -01

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SFM vs. OLLI: Which Retail Stock Offers Better Upside for Now?

Nov -27

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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Announces Third Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Release Date and Conference Call Information

Nov -25

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Buy 5 Consumer Staples Stocks Despite the Sector's Weak Show in 2025

Nov -17

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.44%)

6. Segments

Home

Expected Growth: 10%

Ollie's Bargain Outlet's 10% growth in the Home segment is driven by increasing demand for affordable home goods, expansion of store count, and effective inventory management. Additionally, the company's 'buy-low, sell-low' business model, which offers customers deep discounts on brand-name products, continues to resonate with price-conscious consumers, contributing to the segment's growth.

Consumable

Expected Growth: 12%

Ollie's Bargain Outlet's 12% growth in Consumables is driven by increasing demand for everyday essentials, strategic pricing, and effective inventory management. The company's 'buy-low, sell-low' model, which offers customers significant discounts, also contributes to growth. Additionally, Ollie's focus on private label products and partnerships with national brands further boosts sales.

Other

Expected Growth: 9%

Ollie's Bargain Outlet's 9% growth is driven by increasing popularity of off-price retail, effective inventory management, and strategic store expansions. Additionally, the company's focus on offering a wide range of products at discounted prices, creating a treasure hunt-like experience for customers, and maintaining a strong balance sheet contribute to its growth momentum.

Seasonal

Expected Growth: 11%

Ollie's Bargain Outlet's 11% seasonal growth is driven by increasing demand for off-price retail, effective inventory management, and strategic store expansions. Additionally, the company's focus on offering a treasure hunt-like shopping experience, competitive pricing, and a loyal customer base contribute to its strong seasonal performance.

7. Detailed Products

Furniture

Ollie's Bargain Outlet offers a wide range of furniture products, including sofas, loveseats, chairs, tables, desks, beds, and more at discounted prices.

Housewares

The company sells a variety of housewares, including kitchen utensils, gadgets, cookware, dinnerware, and home decor items at discounted prices.

Bed and Bath

Ollie's Bargain Outlet offers a range of bed and bath products, including bedding, towels, linens, and more at discounted prices.

Food and Beverage

The company sells a variety of food and beverage products, including snacks, beverages, and specialty foods at discounted prices.

Health and Beauty

Ollie's Bargain Outlet offers a range of health and beauty products, including skincare, haircare, and fragrances at discounted prices.

Toys and Games

The company sells a variety of toys and games, including puzzles, action figures, dolls, and more at discounted prices.

Electronics

Ollie's Bargain Outlet offers a range of electronic products, including TVs, laptops, tablets, and more at discounted prices.

Sports and Outdoors

The company sells a variety of sports and outdoor products, including bicycles, camping gear, and athletic equipment at discounted prices.

Arts and Crafts

Ollie's Bargain Outlet offers a range of arts and crafts supplies, including paints, canvases, and more at discounted prices.

8. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates in a niche market, offering closeout merchandise and excess inventory at discounted prices. The threat of substitutes is low due to the unique nature of its business model.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

While customers have some bargaining power due to the availability of alternative discount retailers, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s unique product offerings and treasure hunt-like shopping experience help to mitigate this power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. has a strong bargaining position with its suppliers due to its ability to purchase excess inventory at discounted prices. This allows the company to negotiate favorable terms with its suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the significant barriers to entry in the closeout merchandise market. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s established relationships with suppliers and its expertise in sourcing and pricing merchandise create a high barrier to entry for new competitors.

Intensity Of Rivalry

While Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates in a niche market, there is still some rivalry with other discount retailers. However, the company's unique business model and focus on closeout merchandise help to differentiate it from competitors.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 5.68%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 94.32%
Equity Cost 7.74%
WACC 7.52%
Leverage 6.02%

11. Quality Control: Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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A-Score: 5.0/10

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

118.24$

Current Price

118.24$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows