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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

TrueCar, Inc.operates as an internet-based information, technology, and communication services company in the United States.It operates its platform on the TrueCar website and mobile applications.


Its platform enables users to obtain market-based pricing data on new and used cars, and to connect with its network of TrueCar certified dealers.The company also offers forecast and consulting services regarding determination of the residual value of an automobile at given future points in time, which are used to underwrite automotive loans and leases, and by financial institutions to measure exposure and risk across loan, lease, and fleet portfolios.In addition, it provides accurate, geographically specific, and real-time pricing information for consumers and dealers; TrueCar Trade, which gives consumers information on the value of their trade-in vehicles and enables them to obtain a guaranteed trade-in price before setting foot in the dealership; and DealerScience that provides dealers with advanced digital retailing software tools.


The company was formerly known as Zag.com Inc.TrueCar, Inc.was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Santa Monica, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on TRUE

TrueCar, Inc.'s recent performance was driven by a strong Q1 2025 revenue beat, with the company reporting $245.6 million in revenue, surpassing the consensus estimate of $235 million. The company's President and CEO, Jantoon Reigersman, highlighted the growth in its subscription-based services, which contributed to the revenue outperformance. Additionally, TrueCar's management emphasized its focus on expanding its digital platform and improving customer experience, which is expected to drive long-term growth. The company's financial results and stockholder letter provided a detailed overview of its business performance and strategic initiatives.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. TrueCar's Q2 2025 Earnings: A Step in the Right Direction

TrueCar reported a revenue of $47 million for the second quarter of 2025, marking a 12.4% year-over-year increase and its highest quarterly revenue since Q3 2021. The company's net loss decreased to $7.6 million from $13.5 million in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA came in at negative $1.2 million. The actual EPS loss was $0.05, beating estimates of a loss of $0.06. With a P/S Ratio of 1.05, the market seems to have a reasonable expectation of the company's revenue growth, which is expected to be 8.9% next year.

Publication Date: Aug -31

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth:: Q2 revenue reached $47 million, a 12.4% YoY increase, highest since Q3 2021.
  • Net Loss Reduction:: Net loss narrowed to -$7.6 million from -$13.5 million YoY.
  • OEM Revenue Surge:: OEM revenue grew 19.7% YoY to $3.6 million.
  • New Unit Sales Growth:: New unit sales volume rose 6.2% YoY, outpacing industry growth of 2.8%.
  • Checkout Flow Improvements:: Add-to-cart rate jumped 115%, and F&I attachment rates doubled post-redesign.

Operational Highlights

The company's OEM revenue grew by 19.7% year-over-year to $3.6 million, and new unit sales volume increased by 6.2% year-over-year, outpacing the industry's 2.8% growth. The prospect close rate reached its highest level since Q2 2021. TrueCar's performance marketing campaigns yielded a nearly 30% year-over-year improvement in average cost per sale for non-affinity partner units, indicating a more efficient marketing strategy.

Product Enhancements and TrueCar+ Advancements

TrueCar has been focused on product enhancements and commercializing its TrueCar+ platform, an end-to-end digital retailing experience. The company has introduced new features such as Actionable Insights and Motivated Buyer Badging, which provide data-driven recommendations to optimize performance. The integration with CDK's DMS is complete and in testing, streamlining the dealer experience. The revamped consumer checkout flow has led to a 115% increase in add to cart rate, 40% lift in daily credit application submissions, and a 2x improvement in F&I attachment rates.

Future Growth and Profitability

TrueCar believes that the shift to online vehicle sales is permanent and that TrueCar+ will play a critical role in the future of automotive retail. The company is confident that the recent product enhancements and the commercialization of TrueCar+ will drive future growth and profitability. With a focus on improving efficiency in its dealer network and leveraging data and insights to train dealers on new tools and features, TrueCar is well-positioned for future success.

Valuation and Outlook

With a ROE of -25.4% and a ROIC of -28.45%, it's clear that TrueCar still has a way to go in terms of achieving profitability. However, the company's efforts to improve its product offerings and streamline its operations are steps in the right direction. As the company looks to the future, it is investing in data infrastructure and exploring integrations with affinity partners to better serve consumers and dealers in the evolving landscape of Agentic AI. The current valuation metrics, including an EV/EBITDA of -7.07, suggest that the market is pricing in some level of improvement in the company's financial performance.

3. NewsRoom

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TrueCar Investor Alert By The Former Attorney General Of Louisiana: Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC Investigates Adequacy of Price and Process in Proposed Sale of TrueCar, Inc. - TRUE

Dec -03

Source: prnewswire.com

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$HAREHOLDER ALERT: The M&A Class Action Firm Continues to Investigate the Merger—TRUE, BRY, EVOK, and FSFG

Dec -01

Source: globenewswire.com

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SHAREHOLDER NOTICE: Brodsky & Smith Announces an Investigation of TrueCar, Inc. (TRUE)

Nov -19

Source: newsfilecorp.com

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Halper Sadeh LLC Encourages CDTX, MRSN, HOLX Shareholders to Contact the Firm to Discuss Their Rights

Nov -14

Source: prnewswire.com

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Acadian Asset Management LLC Decreases Position in TrueCar, Inc. $TRUE

Nov -14

Source: defenseworld.net

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Trividia Health, Inc. Announces Preferred Listing of the TRUE METRIX® Blood Glucose Systems on CVS Caremark Commercial Template Formularies

Nov -06

Source: businesswire.com

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TrueCar (TRUE) Reports Q3 Loss, Misses Revenue Estimates

Nov -06

Source: zacks.com

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TrueCar Releases Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nov -05

Source: prnewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (12.18%)

6. Segments

Dealer

Expected Growth: 12%

TrueCar's dealer segment growth is driven by increasing adoption of digital retailing, rising demand for online car buying platforms, and strategic partnerships with OEMs and dealerships. Additionally, the company's focus on improving user experience, enhancing dealer tools, and expanding its network of certified dealers contribute to its 12% growth.

OEM Incentives

Expected Growth: 14%

OEM incentives from TrueCar, Inc. grew 14% driven by increasing demand for online car buying platforms, rising competition among OEMs to offer attractive incentives, and TrueCar's expanding partnerships with dealerships and OEMs, resulting in higher incentive volumes and revenue.

Other

Expected Growth: 11%

TrueCar's 11% growth is driven by increasing online car buying adoption, expansion of its dealer network, and rising demand for digital car shopping experiences. Additionally, the company's investments in data analytics and AI-powered car matching technology have improved user experience, leading to higher conversion rates and revenue growth.

7. Detailed Products

TrueCar Certified Dealer Network

A network of certified dealerships that provide a hassle-free car buying experience

TrueCar Trade

A platform that allows consumers to get an instant cash offer for their vehicle

TrueCar Military

A car buying program exclusively for military personnel and their families

TrueCar for Dealers

A suite of tools and services for dealerships to manage their inventory and sales

TrueCar Analytics

A data analytics platform that provides insights on the automotive market

TrueCar Advertising

A targeted advertising platform for automotive brands and dealerships

8. TrueCar, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

TrueCar, Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes, as customers have limited alternatives for buying and selling cars online.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

TrueCar, Inc. has high bargaining power of customers, as customers have many options for buying and selling cars online, and can easily switch to competitors.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

TrueCar, Inc. has low bargaining power of suppliers, as it relies on a large network of dealerships and manufacturers to provide car listings.

Threat Of New Entrants

TrueCar, Inc. faces moderate threat from new entrants, as entering the online car buying and selling market requires significant investment and partnerships with dealerships and manufacturers.

Intensity Of Rivalry

TrueCar, Inc. operates in a highly competitive market, with many established players and new entrants competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 8.25%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 91.75%
Equity Cost 12.42%
WACC 11.72%
Leverage 8.99%

11. Quality Control: TrueCar, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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comScore

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 2.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 1.0

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Groupon

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 5.1

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 1.7

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MediaAlpha

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.0

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BuzzFeed

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 8.3

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 1.3

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Vivid Seats

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 1.3

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TrueCar

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1.42$

Current Price

2.17$

Potential

-34.36%

Expected Cash-Flows