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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Vivid Seats Inc.operates as an online secondary marketplace for tickets in the United States and Canada.The company operates in two segments, Marketplace and Resale.


The Marketplace segment acts as an intermediary between event ticket buyers and sellers; processes ticket sales on its website and mobile applications through its distribution partners; and sells tickets for live sports, concerts, and theater shows, and other live events.This segment offers Skybox, a proprietary enterprise resource planning tool that helps ticket sellers manage ticket inventories, adjust pricing, and fulfill orders across multiple ticket resale marketplaces.The Resale segment acquires tickets to resell on secondary ticket marketplaces; and provides internal research and development support for Skybox and to deliver seller software and tools.


The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

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1.b. Last Insights on SEAT

Vivid Seats Inc. faced challenges in Q2 2025, with the company navigating a tough industry environment marked by pressure on consumer spending and intense competition in performance marketing channels. The firm's CEO, Stan Chia, acknowledged these difficulties. Additionally, Craig-Hallum downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy, citing consumer softness, competitive intensity, and challenging user acquisition dynamics. A 1-for-20 reverse stock split was announced, effective August 5, 2025, which may impact shareholder value. These factors likely impacted the company's recent performance (Source: Craig-Hallum).

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Vivid Seats' Q3 2025 Earnings: A Challenging Quarter with Signs of Stabilization

Vivid Seats reported a challenging third quarter of 2025, with revenues coming in at $136 million, down from the prior year, and adjusted EBITDA of $5 million, also lower than the previous year. The company's EPS was -$1.91, missing estimates of -$1.68. The decline in revenues was largely due to a 29% year-over-year decrease in marketplace gross order value (GOV) to $618 million, impacted by intense competition and the loss of a large partner in the private label business.

Publication Date: Nov -21

📋 Highlights
  • Leadership Transition: Lawrence Fey becomes CEO; Ted Pickus appointed Interim CFO effective immediately.
  • Cost Reduction Target Doubled: Fixed cost reductions increased from $25M to $60M, with significant savings already achieved in Q3.
  • Q3 Marketplace GOV Decline: Generated $618M in marketplace GOV, down 29% year-over-year, driven by competitive pressures and loss of a major partner.
  • 2026 Guidance: Expects $2.2B–$2.6B marketplace GOV and $30M–$40M adjusted EBITDA, assuming a flat industry outlook.

Operational Highlights

The company has made significant progress in its cost reduction program, more than doubling its fixed cost reduction target from $25 million to $60 million. This effort has helped to mitigate the negative impact of lower volumes and take rates. The company expects improved operating performance in 2026, with the full benefit of its recent cost reductions. Lawrence Fey, the new CEO, mentioned that despite challenging year-over-year trends, the third quarter offered signs of stabilization, including sequential growth in owned property GOV and year-over-year growth in app GOV.

Guidance and Outlook

Vivid Seats expects 2026 marketplace GOV in the range of $2.2 billion to $2.6 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $30 million to $40 million. The company's guidance assumes a flat year-over-year industry outlook and is based on the expectation of stabilizing owned property volumes. The guidance also takes into account the potential impact of the FTC lawsuit against Ticketmaster, which could lead to a contraction in the secondary ticketing market.

Valuation and Metrics

With a P/S Ratio of 0.08 and an EV/EBITDA of 0.48, Vivid Seats' valuation multiples are relatively low, indicating that the market has already priced in the company's challenges. The company's ROE and ROIC are also negative, at -58.77% and -61.41%, respectively, reflecting the difficulties it faces. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -15.3%, indicating that the market expects the company's challenges to continue.

Competitive Landscape

Lawrence Fey mentioned that the company has seen a shift in competitive posture, with StubHub's market share declining in September and October. The company's focus on its app value proposition, including its loyalty program, is expected to help drive growth. The potential disruption to Ticketmaster's TradeDesk could also provide an opportunity for Vivid Seats to gain market share.

3. NewsRoom

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Buy Event Tickets, Earn United Miles: Vivid Seats and United Airlines Team Up

Nov -18

Source: globenewswire.com

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Vivid Seats Inc. (SEAT) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -06

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Vivid Seats Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results; Announces CEO Transition

Nov -06

Source: globenewswire.com

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Vivid Seats to Report Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Oct -28

Source: globenewswire.com

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Vivid Seats Inc. (NASDAQ:SEAT) Given Average Rating of “Hold” by Brokerages

Oct -26

Source: defenseworld.net

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Vivid Seats Launches Lowest Price Guarantee

Oct -23

Source: globenewswire.com

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Strength Seen in Vivid Seats (SEAT): Can Its 12.6% Jump Turn into More Strength?

Oct -21

Source: zacks.com

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StubHub (STUB) Just Started Trading. Should You Buy The IPO?

Sep -19

Source: https://247wallst.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.68%)

6. Segments

Marketplace

Expected Growth: 9%

Vivid Seats' marketplace growth is driven by increasing demand for live event experiences, strategic partnerships with sports teams and venues, expansion into new markets, and investments in user experience and mobile optimization. Additionally, the company's focus on transparency, security, and customer service has built trust with consumers, contributing to its 9% growth.

Resale

Expected Growth: 7%

Vivid Seats Inc.'s resale segment growth of 7% is driven by increasing demand for live events, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's user-friendly platform and competitive pricing strategy have contributed to its market share gain. Furthermore, the rise of mobile ticketing and the growing popularity of experiences over material goods have also fueled growth in the resale segment.

7. Detailed Products

Event Tickets

Vivid Seats offers tickets to various events such as sports, concerts, theater, and comedy shows.

Sports Tickets

Vivid Seats provides tickets to various sports events, including NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and more.

Concert Tickets

Vivid Seats offers tickets to concerts and music festivals featuring popular artists and bands.

Theater Tickets

Vivid Seats provides tickets to various theater productions, including Broadway shows and musicals.

Ticket Insurance

Vivid Seats offers ticket insurance to protect customers' purchases in case of event cancellations or postponements.

Ticket Financing

Vivid Seats provides financing options for customers to purchase tickets in installments.

8. Vivid Seats Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Vivid Seats Inc. operates in a niche market, and there are limited substitutes for its services. However, the rise of alternative ticketing platforms and secondary marketplaces poses a moderate threat to the company.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Vivid Seats Inc. has a large customer base, but customers have significant bargaining power due to the availability of alternative ticketing platforms and the ease of switching to competitors.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Vivid Seats Inc. has a diverse supplier base, and suppliers have limited bargaining power due to the company's large scale and negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

While there are barriers to entry in the ticketing industry, new entrants can still pose a threat to Vivid Seats Inc. However, the company's established brand and large customer base provide some protection.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The ticketing industry is highly competitive, and Vivid Seats Inc. faces intense rivalry from established players and new entrants. The company must continually innovate and improve its services to maintain its market position.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 71.89%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 28.11%
Equity Cost 10.35%
WACC 5.75%
Leverage 255.73%

11. Quality Control: Vivid Seats Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
comScore

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 2.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 1.0

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Groupon

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 5.1

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 1.7

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MediaAlpha

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.0

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BuzzFeed

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 8.3

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 1.3

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Stock-Card
Vivid Seats

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 1.3

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TrueCar

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

7.77$

Current Price

7.77$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows