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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Vivid Seats Inc.operates as an online secondary marketplace for tickets in the United States and Canada.The company operates in two segments, Marketplace and Resale.


The Marketplace segment acts as an intermediary between event ticket buyers and sellers; processes ticket sales on its website and mobile applications through its distribution partners; and sells tickets for live sports, concerts, and theater shows, and other live events.This segment offers Skybox, a proprietary enterprise resource planning tool that helps ticket sellers manage ticket inventories, adjust pricing, and fulfill orders across multiple ticket resale marketplaces.The Resale segment acquires tickets to resell on secondary ticket marketplaces; and provides internal research and development support for Skybox and to deliver seller software and tools.


The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

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1.b. Last Insights on SEAT

Vivid Seats Inc. faced challenges in Q2 2025, with the company navigating a tough industry environment marked by pressure on consumer spending and intense competition in performance marketing channels. The firm's CEO, Stan Chia, acknowledged these difficulties. Additionally, Craig-Hallum downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy, citing consumer softness, competitive intensity, and challenging user acquisition dynamics. A 1-for-20 reverse stock split was announced, effective August 5, 2025, which may impact shareholder value. These factors likely impacted the company's recent performance (Source: Craig-Hallum).

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Vivid Seats: Cost Cuts Fuel App Surge, But Earnings Miss Guidance

Vivid Seats reported a fourth‑quarter adjusted earnings per share of –$10.39, falling well below the consensus estimate of –$1.81, while revenue slipped short of expectations. The company’s adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 of $30‑$40 million reflects modest margin compression, and the firm reiterated a 2026 marketplace GOV target of $2.2‑$2.6 billion. Staff noted the company’s ability to achieve an annualized $60 million in cost reductions, underscoring the focus on efficiency even as the business faces a challenging earnings landscape. The valuation snapshot shows a P/S ratio of 0.1 and an EV/EBITDA of 0.14, indicating that the market is pricing in limited upside potential.

Publication Date: Apr -20

📋 Highlights
  • $60M Annualized Cost Reduction:: Achieved savings in marketing, G&A, and stock-based compensation, enabling reinvestment in growth initiatives.
  • App GOV Growth:: App gross order value (GOV) surged 20% YoY in early 2026, driven by enhanced app features and rewards program.
  • 2026 Guidance:: Targeting $2.2B–$2.6B marketplace GOV and $30M–$40M adjusted EBITDA, with Q1 2026 cash balance of $125M–$135M.
  • World Cup Impact:: Anticipating 1–2% additional GOV growth from the World Cup, similar to a major concert tour’s contribution.
  • Operational Efficiency:: Cost savings reinvested into AI-driven shopping tools and app enhancements, aiming to capture real-time consumer intent.

Cost Discipline Achieves $60M Savings

The company has successfully met its $60 million cost‑reduction goal through disciplined cuts in marketing, G&A, and stock‑based compensation. These savings are expected to free up capital for reinvestment in growth initiatives, particularly the enhanced app value proposition and conversion improvements on the web journey.

App Momentum Drives 20% GOV Growth

App GOV surged over 20% year‑over‑year in the first two months of 2026, driven by a revamped rewards program and a lowest‑price guarantee. Double‑digit growth in repeat app sessions signals stronger customer engagement and a more compelling ticket‑buying experience.

Outlook Remains Steady Amid Competitive Relief

Vivid Seats reaffirmed its 2026 outlook, projecting marketplace GOV of $2.2‑$2.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $30‑$40 million. The firm noted a moderation in competitive intensity from StubHub, while other players continue to prioritize volume over unit economics.

AI Investment Poised to Shift Consumer Discovery

Only 1% of traffic currently comes through AI channels, yet the company is investing in AI‑driven shopping, including a dedicated Vivid Seats app within ChatGPT. This initiative aims to capture real‑time consumer intent and enhance event discovery, positioning the firm for future shifts in buyer behavior.

Event Calendar and Supply Strengthens Growth Prospects

A robust Q1 lineup featuring BTS, Harry Styles, and Noah Kahan is expected to support double‑digit growth in concert sales. The World Cup and other marquee events could add 1% to annual GOV, offering a modest boost to industry volumes.

Cash Flow and Capital Allocation Outlook

The company expects modest cash generation in 2026, with CapEx, interest, and taxes totaling $35‑$40 million. A cash balance of $125‑$135 million for Q1 2026 provides a cushion for ongoing investments and potential opportunistic acquisitions.

3. NewsRoom

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Will Vivid Seats Inc. (SEAT) Report Negative Earnings Next Week? What You Should Know

Apr -28

Source: zacks.com

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Vivid Seats to Report First Quarter 2026 Financial Results

Apr -22

Source: globenewswire.com

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Vivid Seats Price Prediction: Consolidation Potential Pushes SEAT to $10

Mar -26

Source: 247wallst.com

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Vivid Seats Analysts Cut Their Forecasts After Q4 Loss

Mar -14

Source: benzinga.com

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Vivid Seats Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

Mar -14

Source: defenseworld.net

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Vivid Seats Inc. (SEAT) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Mar -12

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Vivid Seats Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results

Mar -12

Source: globenewswire.com

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Reviewing SoftwareOne (OTCMKTS:SWONF) and Vivid Seats (NASDAQ:SEAT)

Mar -06

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.68%)

6. Segments

Marketplace

Expected Growth: 9%

Vivid Seats' marketplace growth is driven by increasing demand for live event experiences, strategic partnerships with sports teams and venues, expansion into new markets, and investments in user experience and mobile optimization. Additionally, the company's focus on transparency, security, and customer service has built trust with consumers, contributing to its 9% growth.

Resale

Expected Growth: 7%

Vivid Seats Inc.'s resale segment growth of 7% is driven by increasing demand for live events, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's user-friendly platform and competitive pricing strategy have contributed to its market share gain. Furthermore, the rise of mobile ticketing and the growing popularity of experiences over material goods have also fueled growth in the resale segment.

7. Detailed Products

Event Tickets

Vivid Seats offers tickets to various events such as sports, concerts, theater, and comedy shows.

Sports Tickets

Vivid Seats provides tickets to various sports events, including NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and more.

Concert Tickets

Vivid Seats offers tickets to concerts and music festivals featuring popular artists and bands.

Theater Tickets

Vivid Seats provides tickets to various theater productions, including Broadway shows and musicals.

Ticket Insurance

Vivid Seats offers ticket insurance to protect customers' purchases in case of event cancellations or postponements.

Ticket Financing

Vivid Seats provides financing options for customers to purchase tickets in installments.

8. Vivid Seats Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Vivid Seats Inc. operates in a niche market, and there are limited substitutes for its services. However, the rise of alternative ticketing platforms and secondary marketplaces poses a moderate threat to the company.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Vivid Seats Inc. has a large customer base, but customers have significant bargaining power due to the availability of alternative ticketing platforms and the ease of switching to competitors.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Vivid Seats Inc. has a diverse supplier base, and suppliers have limited bargaining power due to the company's large scale and negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

While there are barriers to entry in the ticketing industry, new entrants can still pose a threat to Vivid Seats Inc. However, the company's established brand and large customer base provide some protection.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The ticketing industry is highly competitive, and Vivid Seats Inc. faces intense rivalry from established players and new entrants. The company must continually innovate and improve its services to maintain its market position.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 71.89%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 28.11%
Equity Cost 10.35%
WACC 5.75%
Leverage 255.73%

11. Quality Control: Vivid Seats Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Groupon

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 1.7

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MediaAlpha

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 8.3

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 3.0

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comScore

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Vivid Seats

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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BuzzFeed

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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TrueCar

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 8.5

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

6.24$

Current Price

6.24$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows