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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Eldorado Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, exploration, development, and sale of mineral products primarily in Turkey, Canada, Greece, and Romania.The company primarily produces gold, as well as silver, lead, and zinc.It holds a 100% interest in the Kisladag and Efemcukuru gold mines located in western Turkey; 100% interest in Lamaque gold mines located in Canada; and Olympias, Stratoni, Skouries, Perama Hill, and Sapes gold mines located in Greece, as well as the 80.5% interest in Certej development projects located in Romania.


The company was formerly known as Eldorado Corporation Ltd.and changed its name to Eldorado Gold Corporation in April 1996.Eldorado Gold Corporation was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on ELD

Eldorado Gold's recent performance was negatively driven by potential underlying issues with its earnings quality. Although the company reported robust earnings, its stock price remained stagnant. A potential concern is the revised start-up and cost estimates at its Skouries project, which may impact its future growth. Additionally, the company's strong 2024 full-year and fourth-quarter financial and operational results, as reported on February 20, 2025, may have been overshadowed by these concerns.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Eldorado Gold's Strong Q4 and Year-End 2025 Results: A Closer Look

Eldorado Gold's financial performance in Q4 2025 was impressive, with revenues reaching $1.8 billion, driven by strong gold production of 488,268 ounces, at the upper end of their guidance. The company's net earnings attributable to shareholders were $252 million or $1.26 per share in Q4, and $520 million or $2.56 per share for the full year. Adjusted net earnings were $126 million or $0.63 per share in Q4, and $355 million or $1.75 per share for the full year, with actual EPS coming in at $1.68, significantly higher than estimates of $0.597.

Publication Date: Feb -24

📋 Highlights
  • 2025 Gold Production & Revenue: Delivered 488,268 ounces of gold at $1.8B revenue, achieving upper end of guidance with $743M operating cash flow and $316M free cash flow (excluding Skouries).
  • Skouries Project Delay: First concentrate production now Q3 2026 (vs. prior guidance), with commercial production in Q4 2026 due to cyclone feed pump and power line issues.
  • Financial Performance: Q4 net earnings: $1.26/share; full-year: $2.56/share. Adjusted net earnings: $0.63/share (Q4) and $1.75/share (full-year), with $976M liquidity at year-end.
  • 2026 Guidance: Gold production: 490,000–590,000 oz; copper: 20–40M lbs; all-in sustaining costs: $1,670–$1,870/oz; exploration budget increased by 60% to $75–85M.
  • Skouries Cash Flow Impact: Project expected to become low-to-negative cost, potentially transforming Eldorado into a high free cash flow yielder, with $109M positive cash flow (excluding Skouries) in Q4.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was also strong, with a lost time injury frequency rate improving to 0.55, and safe production of 123,416 gold ounces at $1,894 all-in sustaining cost per ounce sold. The company's guidance for 2026 expects total gold production to be between 490,000 and 590,000 ounces, with copper production of between 20 million and 40 million pounds.

Skouries Project Update

The Skouries project in Greece has been delayed, with first concentrate production now expected in early Q3 2026 and commercial production in Q4 2026. Despite the delay, the project remains a high-quality, long-life asset expected to generate meaningful cash flow. The company has agreed to commercial terms for the Skouries concentrate offtake arrangements, covering approximately 80% of planned copper concentrate production over the next 2-3 years.

Valuation Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 17.18 and an EV/EBITDA of 10.61, the market is pricing in a certain level of growth for Eldorado Gold. The company's ROE is 12.4%, indicating a relatively healthy return on equity. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 39.3%, which could potentially drive the stock price higher.

Growth Initiatives

Eldorado Gold is evaluating opportunities to increase production and reduce costs, including a potential pit expansion at Kisladag, which could unlock the western area of the pit and support resource expansion. The company has also increased its planned exploration investment for 2026 by 60%, expecting to spend between $75 million and $85 million.

Balance Sheet Strength

The company's balance sheet remains strong, with total liquidity of approximately $976 million at year-end, positioning them well to complete construction at Skouries and support growth initiatives. The company's net debt to EBITDA ratio is 0.49, indicating a manageable level of debt.

3. NewsRoom

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TSX up 225 Points at Midday, Led by Materials, Financials; Energy Down

Feb -02

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Eldorado Gold to Buy Canada's Foran Mining For $2.78 Billion

Feb -02

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Eldorado Gold strikes deal to acquire Foran to create new copper-gold producer

Feb -02

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Eldorado Gold to Buy Foran Mining for About C$3.8 Billion

Feb -02

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Eldorado Gold to Acquire Foran Mining, Creating Leading Gold-Copper Producer

Feb -02

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Eldorado and Foran Combine to Create a Leading Gold and Copper Producer

Feb -02

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Is It Too Late To Consider Eldorado Gold (TSX:ELD) After 200% One Year Surge?

Jan -28

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Eldorado Announces Strong Exploration Results of Multiple New High-Grade Zones in Canada and Greece and Increases 2026 Exploration Investment, Reinforcing Confidence in Discovery Strategy

Jan -26

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (12.49%)

6. Segments

Gold - Dore

Expected Growth: 13%

Eldorado Gold Corporation's 13% growth in Gold - Dore is driven by increased production at its Kisladag mine in Turkey, improved gold prices, and successful exploration efforts at its Lamaque mine in Canada, leading to higher ore grades and recoveries.

Gold - Concentrate

Expected Growth: 12%

Eldorado Gold Corporation's 12% growth in gold concentrate is driven by increased production at its Kisladag mine in Turkey, improved ore grades, and higher gold prices. Additionally, the company's cost-saving initiatives and efficient operations have contributed to the growth. Furthermore, the ongoing expansion projects at its Olympias and Skouries mines in Greece are expected to further boost production and revenue.

Silver - Concentrate

Expected Growth: 11%

Eldorado Gold's 11% growth in silver concentrate is driven by increased ore production at its Kisladag mine in Turkey, coupled with higher silver grades and recoveries. Additionally, the company's cost-saving initiatives and favorable foreign exchange rates have contributed to the growth.

Lead Concentrate

Expected Growth: 10%

Eldorado Gold's Lead Concentrate segment growth is driven by increasing gold prices, rising production volumes from its flagship Kisladag mine, and improved operational efficiencies. Additionally, the company's focus on cost reduction and exploration activities in Turkey and Greece are expected to contribute to the segment's growth.

Zinc Concentrate

Expected Growth: 9%

Eldorado Gold's 9% growth in Zinc Concentrate is driven by increased ore production at its Kisladag mine, improved zinc grades, and higher milling rates. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiency, cost reduction initiatives, and favorable zinc prices contribute to this growth.

Silver - Dore

Expected Growth: 12%

Eldorado Gold Corporation's 12% growth in Silver - Dore is driven by increasing gold prices, improved ore grades, and enhanced operational efficiency at its mines, particularly in Turkey and Greece. Additionally, the company's focus on cost reduction and exploration activities has contributed to the growth.

Exceptional Items

Expected Growth: 8%

Eldorado Gold Corporation's exceptional items growth of 8% is driven by increased gold production at its Olympias and Skouries mines in Greece, coupled with higher realized gold prices. Additionally, the company's cost-saving initiatives and improved operational efficiencies have contributed to the growth.

7. Detailed Products

Gold

Eldorado Gold Corporation is a leading gold producer with operations in Turkey, Greece, and Brazil. The company's gold production is a significant contributor to its revenue.

Silver

As a by-product of gold mining, Eldorado Gold Corporation also produces silver, which is sold to various industries.

Copper

The company's mining operations also produce copper, which is sold to manufacturers of electrical wiring, circuits, and other copper-based products.

Zinc

Eldorado Gold Corporation's mining operations also produce zinc, which is sold to manufacturers of galvanized steel, batteries, and other zinc-based products.

Exploration Services

The company offers exploration services to identify and develop new mineral deposits, providing expertise in geology, drilling, and sampling.

Mining Services

Eldorado Gold Corporation provides mining services, including mine planning, construction, and operation, to help clients optimize their mining operations.

8. Eldorado Gold Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Eldorado Gold Corporation is medium due to the availability of alternative metals and mining companies. While gold is a unique asset, investors can choose to invest in other precious metals or mining companies, posing a moderate threat to Eldorado's market share.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Eldorado Gold Corporation is low due to the company's diversified customer base and the lack of concentration in the gold mining industry. Customers have limited bargaining power, and Eldorado has a strong market position.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Eldorado Gold Corporation is medium due to the company's dependence on suppliers for equipment, materials, and services. While Eldorado has some bargaining power due to its size, suppliers can still exert some pressure on prices and delivery terms.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Eldorado Gold Corporation is low due to the high barriers to entry in the gold mining industry. New entrants would need significant capital and expertise to establish a competitive operation, making it difficult for new companies to enter the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Eldorado Gold Corporation is high due to the competitive nature of the gold mining industry. Many established companies operate in the industry, and Eldorado faces intense competition for market share, resources, and talent.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 15.77%
Debt Cost 7.15%
Equity Weight 84.23%
Equity Cost 10.10%
WACC 9.63%
Leverage 18.73%

11. Quality Control: Eldorado Gold Corporation passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Lundin Gold

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 1.9

Growth: 9.1

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Kinross Gold

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 7.2

Quality: 8.1

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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B2Gold

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Eldorado Gold

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Royal Gold

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 1.8

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 8.4

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Hecla Mining

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 1.0

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

57.65$

Current Price

57.65$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows