Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Kinross Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of gold properties principally in the United States, the Russian Federation, Brazil, Chile, Ghana, and Mauritania.It is also involved in the extraction and processing of gold-containing ores; reclamation of gold mining properties; and production and sale of silver.Kinross Gold Corporation was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on K

Kinross Gold Corporation's recent performance has been driven by several positive factors. The company's Q4 2024 earnings and revenue beat expectations, with record free cash flow of over $1.3 billion and debt repayment of $800 million. Additionally, Kinross' strong three-year outlook of 2.0 million Au eq. oz. per year has contributed to investor confidence. The company's high institutional ownership, with significant stakes held by prominent investors, has also supported the stock's performance. Furthermore, Kinross' recent announcement to renew its normal course issuer bid (NCIB) program, allowing the company to purchase up to 110.35 million shares, is a positive development for shareholders.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Kinross Gold Shines with Record Free Cash Flow

Kinross Gold reported a robust financial performance in its third-quarter 2025 results, with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.622, significantly beating analyst estimates of $0.4466. The company's revenue growth was fueled by its strong production profile, with 504,000 ounces of gold produced at a cost of sales of $1,145 per ounce. The company's free cash flow reached a record $700 million, taking the year-to-date total to over $1.7 billion. With a strong balance sheet, Kinross has approximately $1.7 billion in cash and $3.4 billion of total liquidity, resulting in a net cash position of almost $500 million.

Publication Date: Nov -09

📋 Highlights
  • Record Free Cash Flow:: Q3 2025 generated $700M in free cash flow, with year-to-date (YTD) reaching $1.7B, driven by 504,000 ounces of gold at $1,145/ounce cost of sales.
  • Strong Liquidity Position:: $1.7B cash and $3.4B total liquidity, with a net cash position of $500M after redeeming $500M 2027 senior notes, saving $35M in interest.
  • Enhanced Shareholder Returns:: Capital returns exceed $750M in 2025, including a 17% dividend increase and $600M share repurchases, totaling $1.5B in shareholder returns this year.
  • Operational Performance:: Paracatu and Tasiast delivered robust production, while La Coipa improved; US assets met budget, and full-year production is on track to exceed guidance midpoints.
  • Project Pipeline Progress:: Redbird 2, Round Mountain Phase X, and Curlew projects advancing toward 2026 investment decisions, alongside Lobo-Marte and Maricunga, with AEX permitting 3/5 permits secured and main project on schedule.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was equally impressive, with mines such as Paracatu and Tasiast delivering substantial production at good costs, generating robust free cash flow. La Coipa's performance improved, and US assets produced in line with budget. Kinross is on track to meet its full-year targets, with production expected to be slightly above the midpoint of guidance and costs expected to be within the upper range of guidance.

Capital Returns and Balance Sheet

Kinross is increasing its return of capital to shareholders, with a dividend increase of 17% and share repurchases expected to be $600 million this year, totaling over $750 million in returns to shareholders. The company's strong balance sheet and significant free cash flow generation provide a solid foundation for its capital return plan, which includes a dividend and share buybacks. The company's net cash position is expected to continue growing, with a target to maintain a minimum of $500 million needed to run the business.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 19.5 and an EV/EBITDA of 8.55, Kinross Gold's valuation appears reasonable, considering its strong growth prospects. Analysts estimate revenue growth of 14.8% next year, driven by the company's robust production profile and significant free cash flow generation. The company's ROIC of 16.27% and ROE of 21.65% demonstrate its ability to generate strong returns on capital. With a Free Cash Flow Yield of 6.69%, Kinross Gold offers an attractive return to shareholders.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

POSCO Partners With Glenfarne to Progress Alaska LNG Project

Dec -05

Source:

Card image cap

Can Kinross Gold Sustain Its Shareholder-Focused Momentum?

Dec -05

Source:

Card image cap

Kinross upgraded to Baa2 Rating by Moody’s

Dec -04

Source:

Card image cap

CE Upsizes $1.4 Billion Notes Offering to Strengthen Liquidity

Dec -04

Source: zacks.com

Card image cap

PKX and Factorial Partner to Advance Battery Materials Development

Dec -04

Source:

Card image cap

Barrick Mining Up 101% in 6 Months: Should You Buy, Sell or Retain?

Dec -04

Source:

Card image cap

Barrick Wraps Up Tongon Interests' Divestiture to Atlantic Group

Dec -03

Source:

Card image cap

Huntsman Updates Outlook for Q4 2025 Amid Unplanned Outages

Dec -02

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.59%)

6. Segments

Tasiast

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Tasiast's 2.5% growth is driven by increasing gold production, improved operating efficiencies, and higher gold prices. The mine's expansion project, which increased throughput and recovery rates, has also contributed to the growth. Additionally, Kinross Gold's cost reduction initiatives and favorable currency exchange rates have enhanced the segment's profitability.

Paracatu

Expected Growth: 2.8%

Paracatu's 2.8% growth is driven by increased gold production, improved ore grades, and enhanced processing recoveries. Additionally, cost savings initiatives and favorable foreign exchange rates contribute to the growth. The mine's life extension project and exploration success also support the growth momentum.

Fort Knox

Expected Growth: 2.2%

Fort Knox's 2.2% growth is driven by increased gold production, improved ore grades, and enhanced mill recoveries. Additionally, Kinross' focus on cost reduction initiatives, exploration success, and strategic investments in the mine's infrastructure have contributed to the growth. The mine's long-life and low-cost profile, combined with a strong gold price environment, further support its growth prospects.

La Coipa

Expected Growth: 2.9%

La Coipa's 2.9% growth is driven by increasing gold prices, improved operational efficiency, and successful exploration efforts. The mine's high-grade ore and low-cost production also contribute to its growth. Additionally, Kinross Gold's strategic investments in exploration and development have enhanced the mine's potential, further supporting its growth trajectory.

Round Mountain

Expected Growth: 2.6%

Round Mountain's 2.6% growth is driven by increased gold production, improved ore grades, and enhanced processing recoveries. Additionally, cost savings from operational efficiencies and a favorable gold price environment contribute to the growth. The mine's long-life ore reserves and ongoing exploration efforts also support future production growth.

Bald Mountain

Expected Growth: 2.4%

Bald Mountain's 2.4% growth is driven by increasing gold prices, improved ore grades, and enhanced operational efficiency. The mine's low-cost profile, combined with Kinross' focus on cost reduction initiatives, has also contributed to the growth. Additionally, the company's exploration efforts have led to the discovery of new mineral reserves, further supporting the segment's expansion.

Corporate and Other

Expected Growth: 2.1%

Kinross Gold's Corporate and Other segment growth of 2.1% is driven by increased gold prices, reduced general and administrative expenses, and a favorable foreign exchange impact. Additionally, the company's cost savings initiatives and operational efficiencies have contributed to the growth.

7. Detailed Products

Gold

Kinross Gold Corporation is a Canadian-based gold mining company that produces gold, a precious metal used in jewelry, coins, and other decorative items.

Silver

Kinross Gold Corporation also produces silver as a by-product of gold mining, used in various industrial applications, electronics, and medical devices.

8. Kinross Gold Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Kinross Gold Corporation is medium due to the availability of alternative metals and recycling of gold. However, the uniqueness of gold as a store of value and its aesthetic appeal limit the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low due to the fragmented nature of the gold market and the lack of concentration among buyers. Additionally, gold is a non-essential product, giving customers limited bargaining power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is medium due to the concentration of gold ore suppliers and the high switching costs associated with changing suppliers. However, the availability of alternative suppliers and the lack of differentiation among suppliers limit their bargaining power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the gold mining industry, including the need for significant capital investment and the complexity of the mining process.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the competitive nature of the gold mining industry, with many established players competing for market share and limited opportunities for differentiation.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 27.09%
Debt Cost 5.21%
Equity Weight 72.91%
Equity Cost 9.91%
WACC 8.63%
Leverage 37.15%

11. Quality Control: Kinross Gold Corporation passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Lundin Gold

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 1.9

Growth: 9.1

Quality: 8.6

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
B2Gold

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Kinross Gold

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 7.2

Quality: 8.0

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Eldorado Gold

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Royal Gold

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 1.8

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 7.8

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Boise Cascade

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

37.73$

Current Price

37.73$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows